ART - 103
1. (2-1) 2-1 : 61 20km 1 2 6 10km 6 12 7 1 100km 1 1 34 7 300km 7 3 3 1300km 1 *1 *1 6 3 *2 300km 6 *3 *1 15 3 GPV 15 *2 15 *3 16 *2 1 7 1 15 2. (1 ) 15 1 15 ( GPV=Grid Point Value) 104
1 / 2-1 : (GPV=Grid Point Value) ( ) 105
(2-2) 2-2 : 1 1500m 2-2 / 2-2 14 1015 2.5 106
2. 5 2-2 : 1 < > 1 ( ) < > ( GPV ) : 12UTC TC : 34 (1 ) : 2.52.5 : : 850hPa ( 1500m) : 500hPa ( 5000m) : 200hPa ( 12000m) : 100hPa ( 16000m) : 26 (13 ) (2-32-4) 1971 2000 30 2-3 : 4 / 107
2-3 : 1. 4 ( ) 2. ( ) 3. 4 ( < >// < >) 2-4 : 2-4 () ( )/ / ( ) 2-4 : 108
15 15 15 2-5 2-5 : ( ) 120 34 1.875(180km) 1.125(110km) 0.4hPa 40 0.4hPa 40 31 26 31 13 109
3-1 : ( ) / / / Y Y X F 1. Y X Y = Y (X ) ( X ) 2. X F X = X (F) (3-2) Y X F Y = Y ( X ( F)) F Y 110
Y / X Y X ( / ) F X F ( ) 3-2 : FAX X F F Y Y = Y (F) (3-3) X Y Y / F Y F ( ) X Y 3-3 : ( 2) GPV 111
3-4 F / X X Y Y F (m ) F X /X ( / m ) X Y Y Y Y 3-4 : 1 26 3 31 26 31 3-3 F Y / X 112
4-1 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4-1 : 1.5 113
F X / ( ) 4-2 : 1. (GPV) ( ) / ( X ) ( F 1500m ) X F + F + Λ + + = 1 1 2 2 n Fn F 2. / 1. ( ) X i / ( ) F i 3. 1. F X 100 2. 1. 114
( X X ) 2 i i 1 2σ e 2πσ 2 i X i X (4-34-4) i 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4-3 : i 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4-4 : 8 115
(4-5) 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4-5 : 116
Earnings at Risk Earnings at Risk Value at Risk Earnings at Risk 95 95 99 95 20 12 0.6 52 2.6 117
99 100 12 0.1 52 0.5 365 95 99 95 99 118
10,000 119
1993 1 2 120
2 t i ( ( ) (, i t N σ µ ) t)2 i 4 2 121
3 m 3 ( ) 0.0538 0.00150 0.000819 (12 ) 0.0602 0.00339 0.001321 m 3 0.5 0.5 m 3 t ( ) 1320 344 270 (12 ) 9060 537 201 1993 33.40 m 3 m 3 0.75 0.25 4 31 i (6) (6) µ i σ i (7) (7) µ i σ i (8) (8) µ i σ i 10,000 122
22 Reliability Diagram 6-1 (2001 2003 ) 45 60 22 (Brier Score) (FiAi) 2 N Fi Ai 1 0N 0 123
6-1 () 11 11 104 =3432 0.5 0.3 3432 124