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1 Impact Forecasting

2 : A: 72 ENSO 72 ENSO 73 ENSO 74 ENSO 75 B: Impact Forecasting 79 Aon Benfield 79 2

3 : , ,350 1, , , ,844 Exhibit , % 209 3

4 , , ,000 56, ,844 3, Exhibit

5 % NCDC / : : ,100 : : : ,000 : / :

6 %

7 NCDC C 0.94 F C 1.15 F C 0.16 F ENSO , 5 ENSO 9 NOAA 9 Niño-3.4 ENSO mph 119 kph mph 179 kph

8 8

9 % ENSO ENSO A

10 % % ENSO A ENSO E 10

11 % % % % kph 155 mph kph 160 mph kph 105 mph 1 11

12 % % % %

13 SPC 12 1, , , , % EF-5 F5 EF EF NWS mph 405 kph EF mph 340 kph EF km mph 305 kph EF

14 NIFC 73,484 8,706,852 3,526, ,971 3,422,724 1,386, ,134 4,950,942 2,005,132 Exhibit Wallow Fire Bastrop County Complex Fire 1,

15 2012 ENSO ENSO

16

17 ENSO

18 6 : CSU Klotzbach Gray NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk TSR Saunders Lea CSU TSR NOAA

19 19

20 2012 CSU TSR 12 20

21 EF cm D.C.,,, 21

22 2,000 3, , , Texas AgriLife Extension Service 6 5,000 45, ,,,,, 2 2,500 20, , mph 110 kph 140,000 56, , SPC 2 5,000 45, ,000 22

23 EF , Quail Ridge Fire , , , , ,700 23

24 ,500 25, , ,000 37, ,, 4 5 SPC 1, ,, , , ,

25 2, , ,000 3, , , , ,000 EF NWS 3 EF5 EF5 EF4 11 NWS EF ,

26 ,000 7, , , EF-5 2 EF-5 SPC , ,

27 , , , , , , SPC 1, , , , SPC 3, ,

28 12 4, , , , ,

29 , ,000 5, USGS 29

30 UTC D.C , EF ,000 D.C , ,000 1,

31 9 2 2, , ,786 1, , ,500 1, , SPC 1 2, ,000 7, FEMA

32 NWS EF-2 / ,000 32

33 UTC NWS NWS , , ,

34

35 ,000 2, UTC , , % ,

36 Hydro One

37 , , , , EF , ,000 7,500 7,300 Aon Benfield 37

38 2 1 9, , , , % 12 5, Aon Benfield 1 4,

39 ,000 2, E UTC

40 , ,000 2, , ,

41 ,000 1, , ,500 41

42 ,100 1, , , , % 1,

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44 ,000 1,580 4,800 1, ,

45 ,

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47 , , , ,

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49 CCR , UTC PwC 1 1 5, , , , ,500 4, ,100 49

50 , , , ,500 1,300 3, ,129 9, ,500 50

51 4 / ,

52 , , ,

53 % 696 1, , , ,000 4, , , , , , UTC ,800 5,000 53

54 , ,900 1, , , UTC , ,990 54

55 :58 UTC , , , ,844 5,890 3, :46 UTC , ,000 2, , , ,000 6,600 1, , , , USGS :55 UTC ,

56 , , , UTC ,900 4, , ,100 2, ,000 56

57 , ,400 2, , , ,000 3, ,

58 , , % 4 1, , , , USGS :16 UTC

59 1 2,094 6, , ,400 1, , , , ,

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61 , , ,000 5, , , ,000 6, ,700 5, , , , , , , , ,

62 , , , UTC , , , , , ,000 5, , ,000 3,440 2, ,000 6,890 62

63 , , , , , , UTC UTC , , , ,000 63

64 , , , , , , , , , ,

65 , , , , , , ,000 6, OIC 3, , ,000 1, ,000 6, , , , ,000 1, , , , , ,

66 :16 UTC B , , UTC , ,800 5, , ,137 66

67 UTC , ,257 4, NDRRMC 8, ,000 3, , ,700 67

68 ICA , ,000 ICA 7, , ,300 1,500 NZ 1, NZ ,500 NZ 1, ,980 NZ 1,

69 ,000 90% , , , , , , , , , UTC 440 1, ,500 3, ,700 1,500 1,530 1, , UTC , NZ NZ

70 NZ 530 1,000 NZ USGS :00 UTC , NZ NZ

71 11 9 1, , ,000 2, ,230 5, UTC :18 UTC ,000 ICA 4 8, , ,600 71

72 A: ENSO ENSO 3 111mph 179 kph mph 179 kph mph 179 kph 72

73 ENSO mph 179 kph mph 179 kph mph 179 kph 73

74 ENSO mph 179 kph mph 179 kph mph 179 kph 74

75 ENSO mph 179 kph mph 179 kph mph 179 kph 75

76 B:

77 1 TD = TS = HU = TY = STY = CY =

78 Bryon Ehrhart Chairman of Aon Benfield Analytics Chairman of Aon Benfield Securities Kevin Campion Chief Operating Officer Aon Benfield Analytics Adam Podlaha Head of International Impact Forecasting LLC adam.podlaha@aonbenfield.com Stephen Mildenhall Chief Executive Officer Aon Benfield Analytics stephen.mildenhall@aonbenfield.com Steve Jakubowski President Impact Forecasting LLC steven.jakubowski@aonbenfield.com Steve Bowen Sr. Scientist/Meteorologist Impact Forecasting LLC steven.bowen@aonbenfield.com This report use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at Scan here to access all editions of the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report 78

79 Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting LLC, visit Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon Corporation NYSE: AON, is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Impact Forecasting LLC. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Aon Corporation. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon Corporation. 79

80 Impact Forecasting 200 E. Randolph Street Chicago, Illinois t f impactforecasting.com Impact Forecasting LLC, All rights reserved. This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon Aon Benfield s preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an as is basis, without warranty of any kind. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Aon Benfield reserves all rights to the content of this document. # /

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