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1

2 2 ID POS

3 ID POS

4 1 1 ID POS ID POS 1

5 2 ID POS. 2.1 ID POS POS Pont of Sales ID POS

6 2.1 S 2.2 [4]

7 [hpa] [hpa] [] [] [] [%] [%] [m/s] [m/s] [m/s] [] [mm] 1 [mm] 10 [mm] 17 1 [hpa] [hpa] [] [%] [m/s] [] [mm]

8 3 [135] 3.1 Y X Y X 0 1 Y X Y X 1 2 Y k X j j = 1, 2, L, k Y = β β β 2 X 2 + L + k X k u = 1, 2, L, n) 3.1 β 1, β 2, L, β k u 0 2 σ 3 X 2, X 3, L, X k Y u Y β 1 + β 2 X 2 + L + β k X k k β 1, β 2, L, βk 3.1 u u = Y β β L + β ( X 2 + k X k u u S = n 2 n u = = 1 = { y ( β + β X + L + )} X k S ˆ β, ˆ β, L, ˆ β β 1, β 2, L, β 1 2 k k ) 2 5

9 2 βˆ β 2 0 k S / β =, S / β = 0, L, S / β k = Y = ˆ β + ˆ β X + L ˆ β X βˆ E( Y ) Y ˆ = ˆ β + ˆ β X + L + ˆ β X k k k k βˆ 1 cm mm 1/10 A cm B Y, X 2, X 3, L, X k s s, s,, s y, x2 x3 L xk ( Y ) s y, ( X 2 X 2) sx2, ( X 3 X 3) sx3, L, ( X k Y X ) k s xk Y Yˆ e e = Y Yˆ = Y ˆ β ˆ β X L ˆ β X X e u σ n = 1 = 1 2 = 1 3 X = 1 2 = n n 0 = 0 = 0 n e, e X, e X, L, e k = k k s 2 n 2 = e ( n k) = e ( n k) e 3.2 k k 6

10 s s.e. s.e n 2 Y = Y Y ) 1 ( Y X 2 n 2 n 2 n ( Y Y ) = = ( Yˆ + = Y ) 1 1 = 2 e 1 e X X η 2 η n n ˆ n ( 2 = ( Y = Y ) 2 1 = 1 2 ( Y n = Y ) 1 = 1 2 η R = 1 Y e 3.4 Y Y ) 2 η R 2 R 2 R 2 n 1 2 = 1 ( 1 η ) n k H 1 2 α H 0 7

11 α x x p α p α X, X, L, H 0 H 0 : β2 = β3 = L = βk = 2 3 X k Y X 2, X 3, L, X k Y H1 H 1 : β 2, β 3, L, β k 0 α F F ( F = n 2 n 2 ( Y Y e ) = 1 = 1 n 2 e n k = 1 0 ) k 1 H 0 F ( k 1, n k) F F ( k 1, n k) α F F F ( k 1, n k) p p α σ s βˆ s e.( ˆ β ) s j s j = n p= 1 ( X p X )( X pj X j ). s j X, X s j j s V s s s βˆ s e.( ˆ β ) e j. s. e.( ˆ β ) = s V e H 0 8

12 H 1 H0 : β = 0 H1 : β 0 α t t 0 ˆ β = s. e.( ˆ β ) t 0 ( n k 1) t t ( n k 1) t 0 t t ( n k 1) p p α t F t 0 ˆ 2 β F = 3.5 ˆ 2 ( s. e.( β )) F F ( 1, n k 1) p α p α βˆ βˆ βˆ Yˆ V e 0 βˆ Yˆ V e 0 βˆ 9

13 4 3.5 F F F F out F n 2.0 F 2.0 F n out n F F Fn 3 F n 3 3 F F F F out F F out

14 4 4.1 [][] 7 [] 3 [][mm][]

15

16

17

18

19 y = x y = x

20 4.4 t E E E E E E E E E t E E E E E E

21

22

23 4.7 t E E E E E E E E E t E E E E E

24

25 t E E E E E E

26

27 t E E E E E

28

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30 t E E E E E E E E E10 27

31 4.15 t E E E E E

32 4.16 t E E E E E E E E E31 F E t E E E E E01 F E

33

34

35 4.19 t E E E E E E E E E t E E E

36 4.21 t E E E E E E E E E52 F E t E E E E01 F E

37

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39 36

40 [1] [2] SPSS 1997 [3] 1991 [4] [5] 37

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