Excess Capacity and Effectiveness of Policy Interventions: Evidence from the Cement Industry SMU
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- らむ ひきぎ
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1 Excess Capacity and Effectiveness of Policy Interventions: Evidence from the Cement Industry SMU
2 (1/2): HDD (Misallocation) Ghemawat and Nalebuff (1990) / War of Attrition Takahashi (2015)
3 (2/2):... : Capacity Coordination :
4 (1/3): 1973 Figure:
5 (2/3): % Figure:
6 (3/3): : 1. : (1) , (2) , (3) a) 2500 b) a) 1100 :
7 (1/2): ( ) ( ) ( ) : GDP
8 (2/2): Table: Summary Statistics # of Std. Obs. Mean Dev. Min Max Panel (a): Firm-Level Statistics # of Firms # of Plants within a firm Panel (b): Plant-Level Statistics In 1970 (beginning year) Monthly Capacity ,815 80,133 25, ,000 Production (clinker) 54 1,031, ,927 48,000 2,684,197 Utilization % % 115.3% # of Workers In 1995 (last year) Monthly Capacity , ,469 55, ,417 Production (clinker) 40 2,227,377 1,528, ,784 7,405,758 Utilization % % 104.9% # of Workers
9 (2/2): Table: Summary Statistics # of Std. Obs. Mean Dev. Min Max Panel (a): Firm-Level Statistics # of Firms # of Plants within a firm Panel (b): Plant-Level Statistics In 1970 (beginning year) Monthly Capacity ,815 80,133 25, ,000 Production (clinker) 54 1,031, ,927 48,000 2,684,197 Utilization % % 115.3% # of Workers In 1995 (last year) Monthly Capacity , ,469 55, ,417 Production (clinker) 40 2,227,377 1,528, ,784 7,405,758 Utilization % % 104.9% # of Workers
10 (2/2): Table: Summary Statistics # of Std. Obs. Mean Dev. Min Max Panel (a): Firm-Level Statistics # of Firms # of Plants within a firm Panel (b): Plant-Level Statistics In 1970 (beginning year) Monthly Capacity ,815 80,133 25, ,000 Production (clinker) 54 1,031, ,927 48,000 2,684,197 Utilization % % 115.3% # of Workers In 1995 (last year) Monthly Capacity , ,469 55, ,417 Production (clinker) 40 2,227,377 1,528, ,784 7,405,758 Utilization % % 104.9% # of Workers
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13 : War of Attrition
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15 (1/5): : Capacity i,t = β 0 + β 1 Productivity i,t 1 +β 2 Productivity i,t 1 1 {t=1985,1986} +β 3 Productivity i,t 1 1 {t=1988,...,1990} +Some Controls i,t + ϵ i,t Capacity i,t = Capacity i,t Capacity i,t 1 3 TFP
16 (2/5): Olley and Pakes (1996) Cobb-Douglas : y it = β 0 + β k k it + β l l it + ω it + ϵ it, ω it (TFP) ω it (k it, l it ) Olley and Pakes (1996) Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) Ackerberg, Caves and Fraser (2015) ω it i it (or m it )
17 (3/5): Productivity Measures (i) (ii) (iii) Divestment Labor Utilization TFP from Decision Productivity Rate OP (1996) Productivity.030***.002***.113*** Baseline (.009) (.000) (.014) Productivity /1986 (.027) (.001) (.049) Productivity /1990 (.026) (.001) (.078) Local.301** * Price (.145) (.152) (.141) Fixed Effects Year Firm Area N Adj R
18 (4/5): Figure: Industry-wide Cement Production and Capacity
19 (5/5): Productivity Measures (iv) (v) (vi) Divestment Labor Utilization TFP from Decision Productivity Rate OP (1996) Productivity.021***.002***.111*** Baseline (.007) (.000) (.013) Productivity /1986 (.027) (.001) (.048) Productivity /1990 (.026) (.001) (.076) Local 0.285** Price (.145) (.151) (.140) Fixed Effects Year Firm Area N Adj R
20
21 (1/4) Figure: The Cement Price (Nominal)
22 (2/4): 2 1. : log(q mt ) = α log(p mt ) + X mt + ε mt 2. : π fmt q imt = P mt + P mt Q mt q imt C(q imt) q imt = 0, : P mt mc imt P mt = P mt (P mt + (P mt /αq mt )q imt ) P mt
23 (3/4): log(q mt ) = α log(p mt ) + X mt + ε mt Model (i) Model (ii) Model (iii) Model (iv) OLS IV IV IV log(p mt ) * -.83* -1.11* (.16) (3.35) (.47) (.58) Controls Year Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 GDP Area Fixed Effects Instrument Used Gypsum Price N Adj or Centered R
24 (4/4): Model (ii) Model (iii) Model (vi) IV + 2nd IV + 3rd IV + 4th Average Markup 4.2% 30.2% 22.6% Median Markup 3.1% 22.6% 16.9% Markup mt = γ 0 + γ 1 1 {t=1985,1986} + γ 2 1 {t=1988,...,1990} + X mt + ε mt Model (ii) Model (iii) Model (vi) Ind. Firm Group Ind. Firm Group Ind. Firm Group 1985/1986 Dummy (.003) (.002) (.020) (.016) (.015) (.012) 1988/1990 Dummy (.003) (.002) (.021) (.017) (.015) (.013) Year up to 4th Firm Fixed Effects Area Fixed Effects Num. of Obs Adj R
25 : Aloha Hawaii
26 Ghemawat and Nalebuff (1990) Liberman (1990); Nishiwaki (2016) (War of Attrition) Ghemawat and Nalebuff (1985); Fudenberg and Tirole (1986); Whinston (1988) Deily (1991); Takahashi (2015) Benoit and Krishna (1987); Davidson and Deneckere (1990); Matsui (1989) Röller and Steen (2006); Ryan (2012) Nishiwaki and Kwon (2013); Nishiwaki (2016)
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