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1 c OR&SA OR&SA 2 OR&SA (Polarity) OR&SA 1. 1) 2) OR&SA 2 3) 2 OR&SA [1] 1) 2) 3) ) 5) 6) Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

2 , t t t t t t t [2] [4] J-10, Su/J-11, Su-30 MKK/J J-10 J-11 [3, 4] [5] [6] (IISS) 3 (ICBM) (SLBM) Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited

3 2 2 ( ) I II (SLBM) [7] GDP ( ) 2017 [4] 3 ICBM SLBM ICBM SLBM GDP (a) ,500 km Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

4 4 (b) [8] ( ) ( ) 3 (c) [9] [9] Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited

5 3 7 ( ) (d) [10] (e) ,000 [2, 11] 3. OR&SA OR OR OR [12] OR&SA [13] WHO 1 OR&SA OR&SA OR&SA OR [14] OR&SA 1 SA OR&SA OR&SA Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

6 4 (Polarity) Unipolar Hegemony Bipolar Multipolar OR (Polarity) [15] OR [16] OR [12] 3.1 (Polarity) [15] 2 E. 4 [17] 2 OR&SA 7,260 7, (SIPRI) ,260 7, [18] (Concentration) (Tightness) [4] Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited

7 (parity) 3.2 dx dt = a y b x + c (1) dy dt = d x e y + f (2) a, b, c, d, e, f > 0 (1) (2) a d b e c f 1919 OR [12] [19] A B (RPC) A x(n) B y(n) [20] 8 y(n) = x(n) = a(m)x(n m)+u(n) (3) m=0 b(m)y(n m)+v(n) (4) m=1 a(m) b(m) A B u(n) v(n) n A x b(m) y (3) (4) (5) r ij(f) =q ij(f)/q i(f) (5) (5) q ij(f) x i q i(f) u i(f) [19] RPC RPC Time Series Analysis and Control (TIMSAC) 9 2 [21] Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

8 9 (Process Decision Program Chart: PDPC) [22] 4. OR&SA [1] [2] [3] International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1996, 2003, 2010, [4] RAND Corporation, Tallying the U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Relative Capabilities and the Balance of Power, , [5] pp , [6] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, data base [7] 17, p. 3, [8] , mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/senkaku.html [9] [10] [11] www. mod. go. jp/ j/ approach/ kokusai heiwa/ index. html [12] OR [13] OR2011. [14] OR 58, pp , [15] B. B. de Mesquita, Measuring systemic polarity, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19, pp , [16] Polarity [17] E. D. Mansfield, Concentration, polarity, and the distribution of power, International Studies Quarterly, 37, pp , [18] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, World nuclear forces, January 2015, org/research/armaments/nuclear-forces [19] pp , [20] [21] [22] Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited

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untitled c 816 Web 1. 30 [1] [2] [3, 4] [5] 10 [6] 185 8540 2 8 38 [5] [5, 7] [5] 3 (1) 608 18 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited. (2) (3) 2. 2.1 Web 2014 1 2013 12 2.2

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