SSI( hpa) CAPE 10 C 3 km SSI( hpa) 3 km 10 C 700 hpa 700 hpa hpa 500 hpa 850 hpa 10 C 5 km CAPE UTC
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1 GSM GSM PoT MSM MSM PoT 20 km 3 PoT 2 GSM PoT MSM PoT ( 2009) GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT (1) (2) (3) (2007) (2009) (1) SSI 4 CAPE (0,1) p a i x i ln( p ) = a 1 p 0 + a 1 x 1 + a 2 x GSM PoT GSM ( 2014) MSM PoT MSM ( 2013) FT=30, 33 4 SSI (Showalter s Stability Index) 5 CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) AIC 6 (i) (vi) SSI CAPE 850 hpa 10 C CAPE 3 (i) SSI SSI SSI 850 hpa 500 hpa SSI( hpa) SSI( hpa) 10 C 10 C 3 km 925 hpa 700 hpa SSI( hpa) SSI( hpa) SSI( hpa) SSI SSI( hpa) UTC SSI MSM PoT 10 C 3 km MSM PoT SSI( hpa) MSM PoT 500 hpa SSI( hpa) PoT SSI( hpa) SSI( hpa) MSM PoT MSM PoT SSI (ii) CAPE SSI 6 AIC (Akaike s Information Criterion) L k AIC = 2 ln L+2k AIC AIC 64
![4.1.1 3 SSI(850 500 hpa) CAPE 10 C 3 km SSI(925 700 hpa) 3 km 10 C 700 hpa 700 hpa 850 500 hpa 500 hpa 850 hpa 10 C 5 km CAPE 3 4.1.1 2015 1 19 00UTC SSI (a) SSI(925 700 hpa)[ C] (b) SSI(850 500 hpa)[ C] (c) (d) MSM PoT[%] (e) (f) MSM 500 hpa [ C] [m] A.](/docs-images/49/25535137/images/2-0.png "2.7 CAPE CAPE 925 hpa CAPE CAPE(925 hpa) 7 CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE(925 hpa) PoT 4.1.2 CAPE CAPE PoT CAPE PoT PoT CAPE PoT CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE PoT 7 925 hpa 65")
2 SSI( hpa) CAPE 10 C 3 km SSI( hpa) 3 km 10 C 700 hpa 700 hpa hpa 500 hpa 850 hpa 10 C 5 km CAPE UTC SSI (a) SSI( hpa)[ C] (b) SSI( hpa)[ C] (c) (d) MSM PoT[%] (e) (f) MSM 500 hpa [ C] [m] A.2.7 CAPE CAPE 925 hpa CAPE CAPE(925 hpa) 7 CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE(925 hpa) PoT CAPE CAPE PoT CAPE PoT PoT CAPE PoT CAPE(925 hpa) CAPE PoT hpa 65
3 UTC CAPE PoT (a) CAPE[10 3 J/kg] (b) CAPE[10 3 J/kg] (c) (d) GSM PoT[%] (e) (f) A MSM (a) [mm] (b) 10 C 3 5 km FT=3 9 Spr, 3 5 Sum, 6 8 Aut, 9 11 Win, 12 2 (All) 50% (iii) MSM 10 C 3 5 km FT= (a) (b) (iv) 850 hpa (a) 18 mm 25 mm 66
4 PoT (v) 9 10 C 10 C 5 km 10 C 10 C 5 km 500 hpa 10 C (vi) CAPE 3 CAPE 3 (2) (i) 10 C (ii) 20 km 10 (iii) 3 (i) 10 C C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km km km 4.5 km hpa hpa 10 (2009) C 10 C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km 4 10 C 3.5 km km 4.5 km 4.5 km 4 10 C 3 km 3 5 km 5 km 5 km km 4 10 C PoT (3) GSM PoT MSM PoT (1) (2) GSM PoT 100 GSM 100 GSM GSM GSM 60 GSM MSM PoT
5 GSM 100 GSM GSM ( 2014) GSM 100 GSM GSM GSM ( 2014) 100 GSM GSM PoT MSM PoT km 11 GSM PoT 00, 06, 12, 18UTC MSM PoT 03, 09, 15, 21UTC ETS BSS GSM PoT FT=15 36 MSM PoT FT=12 33 BSS FT=6 84 FT= FT= FT= (3) GSM PoT 100 GSM PoT MSM PoT ETS 4.1.5(a), (b) GSM PoT MSM PoT ETS ETS ETS GSM PoT MSM PoT 20% 4.1.5(c), (d) (e) BSS BSS BSS GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT GSM100 MSM PoT BSS GSM PoT y = x GSM PoT 12 GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT 68
6 4.1.4 MSM PoT GSM PoT 20 km BSS (c) MSM PoT BSS GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT PoT GSM PoT PoT GSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT GSM PoT MSM PoT UTC MSM PoT MSM PoT PoT MSM PoT MSM PoT MSM PoT PoT PoT (1) (2) (3) 3 1. ETS % 4. GSM PoT MSM PoT (2009) 69
7 4.1.5 ETS BSS (a) (b) ETS (a)gsm PoT (b)msm PoT (c), (d) (e) BSS (c) (d)gsm PoT (e)msm PoT (a) (b) (c) (d), (e) (a) GSM PoT (b) GSM PoT (c) MSM PoT (d) MSM PoT MSM BSS (a) MSM PoT BSS (b) MSM PoT (c) MSM PoT BSS (c) MSM PoT 70
![4.1.8 2014 6 25 06UTC MSM PoT[%] A.2.7 4.1.9 4.1.8 2015 1 23 00UTC GSM PoT[%] 4.](/docs-images/49/25535137/images/8-0.png "1.10 4.1.8 2015 7 19 18UTC MSM PoT[%] 4.1.11 4.1.8 2015 4 14 09UTC MSM PoT[%] 71")
8 UTC MSM PoT[%] A UTC GSM PoT[%] UTC MSM PoT[%] UTC MSM PoT[%] 71
9 ,, 2013: ,, 1 17., 2014:. 26,, , 2007:. 19,, , 2009:. 21,, , 2014:. 26,,
10 ( 2007) GSM MSM GSM GSM-G MSM MSM-G GSM-G MSM-G FT GSM MSM (UTC) h h FT=3 84 FT=1 39 () ( 4.2.2) MSM-G 15UTC (4.2.1) (4.2.1) MSM 18UTC 21UTC GSM 00UTC (FT=3 84) 154 RMSE ME RMSE RMSE 3 5% RMSE 10 12% ME 1 ME 0% RMSE 3 6% ME (UTC) GSM 00UTC GSM 06UTC GSM 12UTC GSM 18UTC MSM 00UTC MSM 03UTC MSM 06UTC MSM 09UTC MSM 12UTC MSM 15UTC 3 73
11 4.2.1 RMSE ME GSM 00UTC FT=3 84 (a) ( ) (b) ( ) RMSE ME RMSE ME RMSE ME MSM 00UTC FT=1 39 (a) ( ) (b) ( ) RMSE ME RMSE ME MSM 00UTC (FT=1 39) RMSE ME RMSE 9 10% RMSE 2 4% ME ME 0% RMSE 1 4% ME 0% ME 0% RMSE GSM MSM RMSE 8 10% ME 0 1% GSM-G MSM-G MSM-G 00UTC GSM-G00UTC FT=24 RMSE RMSE 8 10% 12 13% ME GSM-G 00UTC FT=24 ( 4.2.4) RMSE RMSE RMSE RMSE 74
12 4.2.3 RMSE[%] GSM- G 00UTC FT=24 ( ) RMSE[%] GSM- G 00UTC FT=24 ( ) RMSE[%] MSM- G 00UTC FT=24 ( ) RMSE[%] MSM- G 00UTC FT=24 ( ) 6% MSM-G 00UTC FT=24 RMSE( 4.2.5) RMSE 8 10% GSM-G 12 13% RMSE GSM-G ME GSM-G 75
13 4.2.7 RMSE ME GSM-G 12UTC ( ) ( ) RMSE ME MSM-G 15UTC ( ) ( ) RMSE ME GSM-G 12UTC ( ) ( ) RMSE ME MSM-G 15UTC ( ) ( ) MSM-G 00UTC FT= GSM-G RMSE RMSE RMSE GSM- G GSM-G RMSE 6% GSM-G FT=24 GSM-G 12UTC RMSE ME 4.2.7RMSE 6 7% ME 0% MSM-G 15UTC RMSE ME RMSE 5% GSM 12UTC ME 0% GSM-G MSM-G 24 GSM-G 12UTC RMSE ME 4.2.9RMSE 2 3% ME MSM-G 15UTC 76
14 MSM MSM15UTC MSM15UTC MSM MSM00UTC MSM00UTC RMSE ME RMSE 2% 1% ME 0% GSM-G MSM-G (1) MSM GSM MSM GSM-G MSM-G 40% 23% 50% 25% 40% 25% (2) JST 2 km km m km 06 5 km 09 8 km MSM % 100% % 100% 100% GSM MSM 12 GSM-G UTC 37.7% MSM-G UTC 40.1% 40% 77
15 , 2007:. 19,, ,, 2009:. 21,, GSM-G MSM-G MSM-G MSM-G GSM-G 100% ( 2009) 78
16 ( 1992) ( 1994) ( 2007) GSM MSM LFM LFM 3 (2007) ( 2007) GSM MSM LFM GSM MSM mm/h 0.05 mm/h LFM MSM GSM MSM GSM MSM 8.4% 7.4% 6.0% LFM asuca Pr1 : 1 [mm/h] Cl : Cm : Ch : Clmh= 1 (1 Cl)(1 Cm)(1 Ch) :Clm= 1 (1 Cl)(1 Cm) : R yuki : R ame : Clmh k : Clm k : Kaisei : (2007) GSM MSM LFM R yuki R ame Clmh k Clm k Kaisei LFM LFM GSM MSM 79
17 4.3.2 GSM ( ) MSM ( ) LFM ( ) UTC FT= GSM, MSM LFM MSM GSM MSM GSM GSM ( 2014) GSM ( 2004) GSM ( 2012) 3 50%/3h 50%/3h mm/3h 0.5 mm/3h, 2007:. 19,, , 2004:. 50,, ,, 2012:. 24,, , 1992:. 4,, , 2014:. 26,, , 1994:. 6,,
18 4.3.6 ( JST) ( JST ( UTC 12 09JST) (a) GSM (b) MSM (c) LFM ( JST 1 81
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Ⅰ～Ⅴ章 平成２２年度地域生物多様性保全実証事業報告書（群馬県ニホンジカ個体数調整）3
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MultiPASS Suite 3.20 使用説明書
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Microsoft Word - 03 下郷町 文化.doc
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近畿中国四国農業研究センター研究報告 第７号
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