Microsoft PowerPoint AutoConf-Tokyo-JAP-Jackson.pptx

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AUTOMOTIVE 先を見越したポジショニング低成長環境の機会探求 19 October, 2016 Tokyo Mike Jackson, Senior Executive, North

2 Contents 北動産の展望製品構成 : Cars SUVs Trucks 市場学 OEM レビューまとめ

市場の評価 20 現在地 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 NA 北米生産 Production 4 Recession 不況

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020. All Rights Reserved.

7 北米の自動車生産 ,000 台在庫 ,000 台在庫質 vs 量 Downside 削減 Production 生産 ,000 台遅れソーシング

8 Cars は上昇 SUVs は急騰 Car SUV Truck 8

FCA 2,758 20% 58% 22% $ Toyota 2,034 48%

1,767 58% 29% 13% Hyundai 756 65% 35% 0%

VW 545 100% 0% 0% その他 771 60% 40% 0% 台数規模

9 ポートフォリオ比較 2015 年 OEM 台数乗用車 SUV トラック GM 3,433 31% 36% 34% Ford 3,105 31% 32% 37% FCA 2,758 20% 58% 22% $ Toyota 2,034 48% 36% 15% Honda 1,862 48% 52% 0% Ren/Nissan 1,767 58% 29% 13% Hyundai % 35% 0% BMW 400 0% 100% 0% Daimler % 64% 7% VW % 0% 0% その他 % 40% 0% 台数規模 7,072 6,954 2,900 北米平均 17,495 40% 40% 20% 9

10 ポートフォリオ比較 2023 年 OEM 台数乗用車 SUV トラック GM 3,440 33% 40% 27% Ford 3,030 26% 37% 37% FCA 2,226 10% 65% 25% Toyota 2,145 49% 36% 14% Honda 2,013 48% 50% 2% $ Ren/Nissan 1,645 59% 30% 12% Hyundai 1,221 67% 29% 3% BMW % 73% 0% Daimler % 72% 10% VW % 36% 0% その他 % 46% 0% 台数規模 7,549 7,821 3,245 北米平均 18,615 41% 42% 17% 10

11 Contents Presentation Name / Month 2016 北動産展望製品構成 : Cars SUVs Trucks 市場学 OEM レビューまとめ

12 Car 生産 K - 51K +127K +485K Small Midsize Fullsize Car US3 2,305 1,976 2,152-14% 9% Asian4 3,585 3,673 3,818 2% 4% German % 13% その他 % 0% Small 3,293 3,499 3,778 6% 8% Midsize 3,293 3,316 3,420 1% 3% Fullsize % 7% 12

13 地域別 Car プロファイル 5.0 4% % 3.0 3% % 2% Mexico Share % US Mexico Canada 米国 SUVへさらにシフト工場設備一新スタートアップメキシコ多額の投資未開発地域テクノロジー機会カナダ SUV へさらにシフト 13

14 SUV 生産 K K K K Small Midsize Fullsize SUV US3 3,939 4,095 3,914 4% -4% Asian4 2,302 2,328 2,269 1% -3% German % -6% その他 % 50% Small 1,965 2,369 2,334 21% -1% Midsize 2,771 3,133 3,263 13% 4% Fullsize 2,473 2,378 2,224-4% -6% SUV = SUV/CUV/MPV 14

15 Truck 生産 Van Midsize Pickup Fullsize Pickup Truck = Pickup, Van (LCV) 558K - 475K K トラック US3 3,088 2,952 2,631-4% -11% Asian % -8% German % 0% その他 Van Midsize Pickup Fullsize Pickup -16% -3% % -12% 2,723 2,525 2,248-7% -11% 15

16 Automotive Conference Tokyo October 2016 中型車が急成長 2010 = 361, = 511, = 700,000 Santa Cruz Compact Pickup +36% Ranger Canyon Colorado Ridgeline Frontier Tacoma

17 Contents Presentation Name / Month 2016 北動産展望製品構成 : Cars SUVs Trucks 市場学 OEM レビューまとめ

18 メキシコの生産機会利得者が市場をしのぐ : 年 % 1.5M Honda Mazda BMW Daimler Toyota Hyundai GM VW Ford 18

19 メキシコの自動車生産 M -207K +800K +819K メキシコ US3 1,602 2,137 2,145 33% 0% Asian4 1,287 1,616 1,627 26% 1% German % 16% その他 % 18% Car 1,988 2,481 2,808 25% 13% Car SUV Truck SUV 561 1,366 1, % 0% Truck % -17% 19

20 世界の EV 生産 % 50% 40% 30% 20% 2023:.6M CAGR = 28.3% 19 ネームプレート NA EV ROW EV NA EV Share China EV Share 10% 0% 2023: 1.1M CAGR = 27.5% 146 ネームプレート 20

21 挑戦 Toyota Honda Nissan Ford BMW Volkswagen Chevrolet Audi Lexus Mazda 21

22 新たなモビリティメーカー Tesla Model 3 公表 Tesla Atieva Faraday Apple Google いつ? NA 北米生産 Production アクション競合から勝ち取る経済的障壁サイズとスケール技術リスク競争

23 Contents Presentation Name / Month 2016 北動産展望製品構成 : Cars SUVs Trucks 市場学 OEM レビューまとめ

24 General Motors GM 3,653 3,558 3,440-3% -3% Buick % 14% Cadillac % -12% Chevrolet 2,596 2,503 2,449-4% -2% 1.5 GMC % -5% 0.5 Car 1,171 1,024 1,141-13% 11% SUV 1,240 1,459 1, % -7% Car SUV Truck Truck 1,242 1, % -13% 24

25 Ford FMC Ford Lincoln ,078 2,958 3,030-4% 2% 2,908 2,786 2,849-4% 2% % 5% Car SUV Truck Car % 8% SUV 1,090 1,027 1,111-6% 8% Truck 1,183 1,199 1,131 1% -6% 25

26 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCA 2,601 2,508 2,226-4% -11% Chrysler % -10% Dodge % -26% Jeep 1,066 1,192 1,121 12% -6% Ram % -15% Car Car SUV Truck -33% 2% SUV 1,609 1,609 1,442 0% -10% Truck % -17% 26

27 Toyota TMC Lexus ,176 2,117 2,145-3% 1% Toyota -11% 3% 2,015 1,973 1, % 1% Car SUV Truck Car 1, ,060-10% 13% SUV % -6% Truck % -11% 27

28 Honda HMC 1,962 1,999 2,013 2% 1% Acura % -1% Honda 1,767 1,813 1,828 3% 1% Car % 4% SUV 1,005 1,029 1, Car SUV Truck 2% -2% Truck % 12% 28

29 Renault-Nissan Ren-Nis 1,846 1,668 1,645-10% -1% Infiniti % 26% Nissan 1,793 1,547 1,493-14% -3% Renault % -12% Car 1, Car SUV Truck -6% -2% SUV % 3% Truck % -10% 29

30 Hyundai HMC Hyundai Kia ,223 1,221 44% 0% % 0% % -1% Car SUV Truck Car % 1% SUV % -5% Truck % 30

31 Volkswagen VW Audi % 5% VW 928% 26% % 1% Car % 14% SUV Car SUV Truck 2699% -9% Truck

32 BMW BMW % 11% Car % SUV % -10% Truck Car SUV Truck 32

33 Daimler Daimler % -12% 0.3 Car % -48% SUV % 6% Truck Car SUV Truck -11% 0% 33

34 その他メーカー Car SUV Truck Subaru % -8% Mazda % 18% Tesla % 46% Car % 0% SUV % 50% Truck

35 Contents Presentation Name / Month 2016 北動産展望製品構成 : Cars SUVs Trucks 市場学 OEM レビューまとめ

36 まとめ : 先を見越したポジショニングリスクの軽減 : 低成長が高いリスク行動につながる計画的にリスクを冒して将来の投資計画を立てる先を見越してビジネスポートフォリオを管理 ; 転換点に先立つ行動監査 : コア能力とリスク予測に合わせた将来戦略低ボリュームの立ち上げ / 投資活動の増加利益の絞り出しを促進レバレッジ : 健全な機会をとらえ市場ストレス増加にしたがって成長市場が勢いを維持する間が行動を起こす絶好の機会多角化 : 求められるグローバルな視点専門性を発展できるグローバルな機会を活用 ; 中国 OEM& サプライヤは進出に前向きに取り組みリスクと恩恵を提示

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37 Thank You! IHS Markit Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ) Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) Asia and the Pacific Rim: IHS Markit TM COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS Markit. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS Markit permission must display IHS Markit legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS Markit shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS Markit and the IHS Markit logo are trademarks of IHS Markit.

Microsoft PowerPoint AutoConf-Tokyo-JAP-Carlson.pptx

Microsoft PowerPoint AutoConf-Tokyo-JAP-Carlson.pptx AUTOMOTIVE 自律運転とモビリティ 19 October 2016 Tokyo, Japan Jeremy Carlson, Principal Analyst +1 310 524 4065, jeremy.carlson@ihsmarkit.com 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2016 IHS Markit Contents Market