世界経済の見通しと政策課題

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1 経済産業研究所 (RIETI) BBL セミナープレゼンテーション資料 3 年月 8 日世界経済の見通しと政策課題木下祐子資料の引用は IMF の HP に掲載されている世界経済見通し本文及び図表から直接の引用としてください

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5 7 WEO Update 4

6 PMI) GDP / 5 Advanced economies 5 Advanced economies Emerging market economies Emerging market and developing economies Sep Q : IMF ; IMF 5

7 / / ; x ; 3 ( ) 4 WEO ) United States Europe Germany 3 Japan 7 6 United States t t+ t+4 t : Bloomberg, L.P. / / 6 Nov. 4

8 5 5 ( ; ) ( ) VXY / VX Sovereign / United B States BB Corporate 3/ 3 5 May, Equity Bond ECB Greek Irish st ECB June 9, May, crisis 3 LTROs crisis LTROs :H :H :H :H :H :H Sep Oct 3 : Bloomberg, L.P.; EPFR Global/Haver Analytics IMF / JPMorgan : ECB ; = LTROs = / JPMorgan EMBI 7 3/ JPMorgan CEMBI

9 ( 3 8 ) Percent change 8 from April 3 to Aug Sur. Def. Aln. : Haver Analytics; IMF 3 4 IMF : Aln. = ; Def. = ; Sur. = 8

10 : 3 / ( ) ) : / ( ; 4 4 WEO Potential Cyclical Change in real growth Brazil South Africa China Russia India Brazil India China South Africa Russia : IMF / 3 WEO Box. ) 9 / 5 3 7

11 (5 ) Emerging Market and Developing Economies Euro area Japan United States IMF Commodity Price Index Non-Fuel Price Index Fuel (energy) Index IMF ; :Q3 3

13 : 6 : :

14 WEO WEO GDP ( ) (3 ) (3 7 ) (3 ) (3 7 ) : IMF 3

15 ( ) 4 United States Japan Euro Area 3 Global Growth 3 Change in Global Growth 4 Global Growth 4 Change in Global Growth IMF EMDEs Other Advanced Economies Developing Asia Latin America Other EMDEs EMDEs Global Growth

16 ( ) percent confidence interval percent confidence 3 4 interval (April WEO 3 WEO) Baseline 3 4 : IMF 5

17 : : ; : ; : ; ; 6

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19 GDP Quarter over quarter (SAAR) Year over year :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q Australia, Japan & New Zealand :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q East Asia (excl. China) :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q ASEAN China India CEIC Data Company Ltd.; Haver Analytics; IMF ASEAN 8 GDP

20 GDP 3 WEO % % % % 5% 5% 7% 7% 9

21 Indonesia ンドネシア5 Cumulative 9 flow, 3 5 Sep - 3 May Cumulative flow since 3 May ンレイインィ- ガードフリポマシピーアタ Taiwan POC イル Singapore Hong Kong SAR シン Korea China Malaysia Thailand India Philippines

22 : FCI ( ) Australia, Japan & New Zealand China East Asia (excl. China) ASEAN India Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan- Apr- ASEAN PPP GDP Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Sep- Nov- Feb-3 Apr-3 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Jul-3

23 : Net exports Public domestic demand Private domestic demand Growth China East Asia India ASEAN (excl. China) IMF IMF ASEAN Australia, Japan & New Zealand

24 : Latest Target 4 forecast 3 forecast Taiwan Province of China New Zealand ュージーラ Thailand Korea 4 3 イSingapore ンガポーMalaysia Australia ーストランオリレーシアシアマPhilippines CEIC Data Comany Haver Analytics IMF 4 3 ィリピChina India Hong Kong SAR Vietnam トナム )ベンドイルタイニフンド Indonesia ン本ド(ネ右シ軸ア日Japan (RHS) 5 4 3

25 ( ) ASEAN ( ) percent confidence interval 7 percent confidence interval 9 percent confidence interval IMF IMF 4

26 : 5

27 q q : : : 6