2014 3 1 8 67 87 2012 Analysis of Voting Behavior on Japanese General Election in 2012 : Using Data of Labor Union Members and the General Voting Public Masanori HIGASHI 2012 61.516.9 2 3 2
8 2009 8 30 3 25 2012 11 16 12 16 57 3 3 294 1 31 3 2 325 TPP 59.32 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011 2012 2013 1 2012 2 2012 1 12 8 10 2 12 17 20 2
2012 1 195 25 4 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 50 0 2 1 51 333 58.60 7.50 1.20 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.30 0.90 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 0.60 0.30 15.30 100 269 1722 14 10 13 2 1 65 4 35 357 1 28 6 274 2801 9.60 61.50 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.10 0.00 2.30 0.10 1.20 12.70 0.00 1.00 0.20 9.80 100 5 6 67 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 1 0 7 93 5.40 6.50 72.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 0.00 1.10 0.00 7.50 100 3 0 0 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 4 36 8.30 0.00 0.00 58.30 2.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.10 100 1 3 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 17 5.90 17.60 0.00 0.00 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.90 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.80 100 1 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 14 7.10 28.60 0.00 7.10 0.00 21.40 0.00 7.10 0.00 14.30 14.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 100 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 2 14 0 0 0 4 55 16.40 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.50 0.00 3.60 25.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.30 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 33.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 10 10.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 100 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 7 0 6 25 4.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 28.00 0.00 24.00 100 58 70 4 4 2 1 0 11 3 6 69 2 13 1 77 321 18.10 21.80 1.20 1.20 0.60 0.30 0.00 3.40 0.90 1.90 21.50 0.60 4.00 0.30 24.00 100 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 11 0 1 0 13 33 3.00 15.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.10 0.00 0.00 33.30 0.00 3.00 0.00 39.40 100 20 40 3 4 0 0 0 7 0 3 30 1 5 1 293 407 4.90 9.80 0.70 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.70 7.40 0.20 1.20 0.20 72.00 100 566 1884 92 41 24 6 2 115 7 49 563 4 57 10 733 4153 13.60 45.40 2.20 1.00 0.60 0.10 0.00 2.80 0.20 1.20 13.60 0.10 1.40 0.20 17.60 100
8 1 2012 48 2013 1 4 N4159 1 2 1 1 5 2 61.5 1 12.7 9.8 9.6 2 2005 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 69.4 24.5 26.7 41.6 58.6 82.5 89.2 88.7 80.4 61.5 73.5 69.4 72.2 74.4 72.0 56.9 64.3 58.5 59.4 58.3 59.3 64.5 58.3 54.5 29.4 72.2 27.8 21.4 66.7 0.0 0.0 65.5 45.5 0.0 51.1 66.3 53.6 81.0 72.0
2012 1 14 2 discriminant analysis composite score 1 30
8 3 30 1 2 0.790 0.042 0.595 0.055 0.496 0.022 0.474 0.058 0.458 0.052 0.455 0.034 0.433 0.012 0.416 0.042 0.405 0.090 ID 0.404 0.048 0.336 0.082 0.332 0.038 0.321 0.449 0.327 0.413 0.359 0.391 0.168 0.345 0.351 0.323 0.147 0.304 0.301 0.208 0.207 0.256 0.101 0.129 0.175 0.201 0.072 0.273 0.059 0.171 0.249 0.122 0.289 0.291 0.297 0.229 0.235 0.065 0.129 0.230 0.278 0.006 0.102 0.265 0.000 0.028 0.026 0.002 0.056 0.032 0.099 0.038 0.077 0.097 0.037 0.058 0.091 0.148 0.144 0.236 0.113 0.100 0.006 0.095 0.109 0.244 0.031 0.022 0.243 0.069 0.062 0.013 0.160 0.056 0.004 0.168
2012 30 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 1 2 30
8 4 30 1 2 0.795 0.192 0.602 0.378 0.424 0.257 0.407 0.055 0.263 0.623 0.070 0.498 0.235 0.474 0.250 0.435 3 3 1 9 2
2012 2 2012 2012 12 16 1 12 8 10 1000 20 60 5 100 12 17 20 1 1000 2 1 2 N960 Ajzen theory of planned behavior : TPBbackground factors ; Ajzen & Fishbein, 2005 57 1 77.3 59.32 59.31 1 Greenwald, Carnot, Beach & Young1987 1 2 2 2 56.2 40.5
8 5 6 95 4 0 23 1 11 0 1 0 1 27 169 3.60 56.20 2.40 0.00 13.60 0.60 6.50 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.60 16.00 100.00 54 45 26 4 93 8 48 3 0 2 4 33 320 16.90 14.10 8.10 1.30 29.10 2.50 15.00 0.90 0.00 0.60 1.30 10.30 100.00 0 2 1 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 36 0.00 5.60 2.80 77.80 2.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 8.30 100.00 1 1 2 1 2 30 1 0 0 0 0 6 44 2.30 2.30 4.50 2.30 4.50 68.20 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.60 100.00 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 6 16.70 0.00 16.70 0.00 0.00 16.70 16.70 33.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 2 14 3 0 20 1 30 0 0 0 0 4 74 2.70 18.90 4.10 0.00 27.00 1.40 40.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.40 100.00 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0.00 0.00 33.30 0.00 33.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.30 100.00 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 6 8 18 0.00 5.60 0.00 0.00 11.10 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.30 44.40 100.00 6 20 7 3 25 2 12 4 0 0 7 28 114 5.30 17.50 6.10 2.60 21.90 1.80 10.50 3.50 0.00 0.00 6.10 24.60 100.00 0 5 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 9 19 0.00 26.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.40 100.00 1 16 2 1 16 4 4 1 0 0 3 99 147 0.70 10.90 1.40 0.70 10.90 2.70 2.70 0.70 0.00 0.00 2.00 67.30 100.00 72 203 48 38 188 49 109 10 1 2 22 218 960 7.50 21.10 5.00 4.00 19.60 5.10 11.40 1.00 0.10 0.20 2.30 22.70 100.00 77.8 68.2 18.9 14.1 10.9 5 1 21.1 15 14.1 29.1 16.9 68.2 56.2 77.8
2012 10.9 67.3 5 21.1 19.6 11.4 15.99 7.5 5.1 5.0 32010 2012 3 1 Vs 6 19 1 2 3 9 Vs 9 0.974 0.008 0.007 0.581 0.018 0.113 0.471 0.057 0.071 0.330 0.165 0.000 0.067 0.674 0.031 0.096 0.580 0.026 9 0.120 0.571 0.572 0.178 0.398 0.071 0.207 0.390 0.375 0.154 0.353 0.048 0.157 0.268 0.523 0.174 0.287 0.500 TPP 0.121 0.026 0.361 0.125 0.136 0.043 0.243 0.045 0.137 0.180 0.229 0.286 0.166 0.298 0.056
8 3 2 9 9 3 9 9 23 3 3 2012
2012 3 2012 16.9 61.5 2 2012 3 2012 2013 2012 2012, p.57 58 2012 2013
8 6 4 1 15.99 NHK RDD 2011 10 42 24 67 3 2 2012 2012 3 71.22013 3 68.1 2030 40 22.1 28.3 28.2 33.7 20.6 10 40.4 23.5
2012 3 3 48 Ajzen. I.1991The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179 211. Ajzen, I., & Fishbein, M.2005The influence of attitudes on behavior. In D. Albarracin, B, T. Johnson, M. P. ZannaEds.The Handbook of attitudespp.173 221. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Greenwald, A. G., Carnot, C. G, Beach, R., & Young, B.1987Increasing voting behavior by asking people if they expect to vote. Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol.72, No.2, 315 318. 2004 43 17 31 55. 20052004 19 15 49. 2007 48 558 559. 2008 49 394 395. 2009
8 3 73 101. 2010 51 332 333 2011 52 177. 20132012 53 241. 2012 1 18 33. 2012
2012 1 α0.804 7 9 9 14 α0.582 2 24 α0.837 26 27 28 15 α0.586 10 1 3 4 α0.759 5 16 2 α0.836 1 5 α0.703 4 10
8 α0.8059 11 12 α0.604 2 6 7 9 α0.758 8 3 3 α0.870 1 2 3 4 5 α0.798 1 2 3 4 5 α0.903 1 2 3 4 5 4 α0.835 8
2012 15 α0.814 2 14 IDα0.835 4 12 α0.814 3 5 11 7 α0.745 9 13 1 α0.832 10 6 αkr 200.878 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 α0.674 14 20
8 17 9 α0.843 9 9 7 16 α0.730 3 4 13 α728 19 52030 α0.705 1 10 TPP 8TPP 18 6 α0.760 12 1 α0.839 6 2 8 9 5 α0.849 10 4
2012 KR 20α0.637 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 α0.942 2 9 6 1712 16 α0.683 3 13 α0.862 5 11 812 16 1812 16 α0.592 15 7 α0.756 14 16 α0.787 4 10 2013 12 2