26 5 9
4 48% 11% 10% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 15% 76 9690 (2012 ) 63.6% 19.1% 6.4% 5.2% 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1 9,154 2013 23% 14% 12% 10% 5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 23% 12 7603 (2012 ) 383 30% 302 24% 134 11% 114 9% 82, 7% 74, 6% 35, 3% 32, 2% 10 1% 7 1% 82 6% 12 5534 (2012 )
% 1 kl % 1973 1993 2010 2011 2012 4 (1%) 13 (2%) 21 (4%) 22 (4%) 22 (4%) 2 (1%) 60 (11%) 64 (11%) 23 (4%) 4 (1%) 292 (75%) 287 (54%) 228 (40%) 235 (43%) 239 (44%) 6 (2%) 60 (11%) 109 (19%) 127 (23%) 132 25% 65 (17%) 85 (16%) 129 (23%) 120 (22%) 125 (23%) 17 (4%) 23 (4%) 18 (3%) 19 (3%) 17 3% 17 21 23 21 17 65 17% 73 18% 85 16% 118 20% 130 22% 6 2% 31 8% 60 11% 87 15% 106 18% 292 75% 249 61% 287 54% 280 49% 264 44% 2 28 60 54 60 10% 4 5 13 16 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 kl 5
100% 90% 80% 70% 17% 3% 80% 13% 32% 8% 9% 9% 6% 32% 12% 12% 78% 2% 16% 89% 2% 18% 92% 11% 9% 9% 6% 3% 13% 86% 2% 13% 88% 91% 13% 17% 94% 60% 50% 40% 73% 21% 55% 5% 32% 60% 43% 48% 48% 49% 46% 49% 49% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22% 23% 23% 25% 26% 29% 29% 29% 24% 2% 12% 5% 1973 1993 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 2013 4 2013 7 2013 10 2014 1 6
164 285 785 744 242 54 110 50 17 184 481 21 2,119 1,549 102 6 15 182 3,983 47 8,013 7
7% 33% 40% 60% 44% 2% 1% 6% 4% 3% 8
121.8 36.7 12.3 9.9 6.62.1 2.1 63.6% 19.1% 6.4% 5.2% 3.5%, 1.1%. 1.1% 9
10
LNG CIF2014.2 7.86 /1000Kcal 6.83 /1000Kcal 1.77 /1000Kcal LNG 1.4 /kwh 0.7 /kwh 1.3 /kwh 0.7 /kwh 4 /kwh 13 /kwh 23 12 1980%402010 6 26 4 25 11
26 4 11 12
2013 13
IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 OECD 3% 1% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 79% 68% 43% 1% 15% 2% 22% 45% 1% 30% 1% 79% 41% 5% 27% 25% 2% 0% 2% 15% 1% 10% 3% 12% 24% 19% 7% 36% 10% 8% 25% 14% 11% 18% 3% 19% 19% 2% 8% 8% 22% 12% 16% 14% 40% 2% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 15
16
2000 1 150,340 24.0% 2 64,895 10.3% 3 45,409 7.2% 4 29,744 4.7% 5 25,528 4.1% 6 23,446 3.7% 7 21,649 3.5% 8 20,930 3.3% 9 19,032 3.0% 10 2,178 0.3% 223,980 35.7% 2012e 1 288,787 22.6% 2 183,771 14.4% 3 159,619 12.5% 4 125,535 9.8% 5 64,530 5.1% 6 45,195 3.5% 7 44,797 3.5% 8 31,381 2.5% 9 22,414 1.8% 10 15,932 1.2% 294,070 23.0% 627,131 1,276,031 17
2013 22% 7% 16% 23% Glencore Xstrata 8% 9% 15% BHP Billiton Peabody Rio Tinto Anglo American Annual Report JOGMEC 5 Glencore Xstrata BHP Billiton Rio Tinto 18
33 49% DMO) 2010 620730 37441051 7,500 22.5% QLD 2012 10 10 12.5100 150/, 10 15150/ 19
QLD 10,000 t QLD 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 2007 8 2007 10 2007 12 2008 2 TEX 2010 13 QLD 2010 12QLD 350 300 250 200 逼 2011 11,985 22.5 2010 11122011 1 QLD 12 1 3 8 3 28 150 100 50 0 BMA CP 5 20
2011 6 Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance BMA61 121 62012 10BMA 51 5000 2011 11 2012 1 2013 2 BHP2 BHP 4860 2013 5 220 42 2014 2 20048 2 21
60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 49.6% 49.0% 48.5% 48.2% 44.4% 44.8% 42.3% 37.4% 20.1% 21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9% 24.7% 19.3% 30.4% 20.0% 18.8% 19.4% 19.4% 19.6% 20.2% 19.6% 19.3% 19.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 22
23
HPB 2014 4 kcal/kg, GAR %,ar %, ar %, ar US$/ton A 6,700 12.0 0.6 5.0 80.64 B 6,200 14.5 0.6 5.5 72.78 A 5,400 22.5 0.4 5.0 59.43 B 5,000 26.0 0.1 1.2 55.91 A 4,400 32.0 0.3 4.2 45.02 B 4,200 35.0 0.2 3.9 41.16 24
25
26
CO2 % % % % % 28
CO2 1400 1200 1195 1000 800 967 907 889 958 863.8 809.7 695.1 600 400 476.1 375.1 200 0 ( 13001500 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2012 29
30
熱効率(%)(送電端 HHV石炭火力の CO2 対策と課題 ( 効率向上 ) 石炭火力の利用に当たって必要となる CO2 排出減に向けた対策として 1 効率向上 2CC(U)S (Carbon Capture(, Utilization,) and Storage) 3バイオマス混焼等が考えられる 効率向上としては 今後 我が国の強みを生かした石炭ガス化複合発電 (IGCC) や石炭ガス化燃料電池複合発電 (IGFC) 先進超々臨界圧火力発電(A-USC) など技術開発が重要 60 55 50 45 既存の発電技術 超々臨界圧 (USC) ( 蒸気温度 566 以上, 蒸気圧 22.1MPa 以上 ) )40 亜臨界圧 (Sub SC) ( 蒸気圧 22.1MPa 未満 ) 35 年 超臨界圧 (SC) ( 蒸気温度 566 以下, 蒸気圧 22.1MPa 以上 ) IGCC IGCC 1700 GT 1500 GT 先進超々臨界圧 (A USC) ( 蒸気温度 700 以上, 蒸気圧 24.1MPa 以上 ) 石炭ガス化複合発電 (IGCC) 実証機 1200 GT 今後の技術開発 石炭ガス化燃料電池複合発電 (IGFC) 30 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 31
Carbon Capture and Storage) 32
CCS 1 1.3 1972 2 0.68 1982 3 7 1986 4 0.85 1996 5 6 2004 3 2000 7 2008 8 8.4 2010 9 1 2013 10 0.7 2013 11 1 2013 12 1 2013 1 1 2014 2 1 2014 3 3.5 2014 4 0.8 2014 5 2015 6 2015 7 1.08 2015 2016 8 9 0.8 2016 33
34
2020 39% 46% 20201500 39% 46% 2025 203055% 2014 2020 20142021 2030 35
CO 2 800 36
LHV % 45 40 35 30 25 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 IEA, Energy Balances: OECD and Non OECD Countries, EU (27) 38
39
MW 40
CCT 41
42
Lasen & Toubro Ltd 2007 4 2007 12 JSW 2008 6 BGR 2010 8Hitachi Power Europe GmbH BGR66 kw 100W PT CILEGON FABRICATORS 1985 3 43
44
45 SCBHEL ESP HPC CCT USC SC USC USC CCT USC IGCC CCT JCOAL
46
CCT CCT CCT 1,000MW 1 EPC 1,000MW 1 EPC 1,000MW 2 IPP 660MW 2 2013 8 2012 9 2011 10 2013 7 1,300 1,500 40 47 47
49