175
4 2 GDP GDP GDP GDP = Aschauer(1989) (1995) 1 = Y = e KP KG E ( A0+ A1 T) A2 A3 ( 1-A2) ( ) ( ) Þ log( Y) - log( E) = A0+ A1 T + A2 log( KP) - log( E) + A3 log KG + A4 dumb e 1 4 1 177
A1 T Y GDP KP KG E dumb 1989 91 A0 4 2 ( d ) 1 1 KP = IP + - KP- KP IP ( q) 1 1 KG = IG + IA + - KG- KG IG IA KP KG 45 Y = C+ H + IP+ CG+ IG+ IA+ HG+ EX IM Y GDP C H IP 2 178
CG IG IA HG EX IM 50 ( C) = B0+ B1 ( YDP) + B2 DP P + B3 ( C 1) log log log C YDP -1 P/P -1 B0 3 YDP = Y T + SSnet +05. rb - 179
Y GDP T SSnet rb SSnet rb 5 GDP e IP = C0+ C1 Y + C2 KP- 1 + C3 ROR + C4 LAND IP Y e GDP ROR LAND GDP C0 4 ROR ROR = s Y KP - RR ROR Y GDP KP RR GDP 180
GDP R = D0+ D1 RO+ D2 Y R RO Y GDP D0 2 GDP GDP GDP GDP * * ( ) ( ) ( ) log EX Pex E E log Y E log exc P Pex E EX = + + + log æç -1 0 1 2 3 ö è Pex -1 ø EX Pex Y GDP exc P exc P E0 3 GDP 90 95 GDP 181
( ) = + ( ) + ( * ) log IM Pim F F log Y F log Pim F æ IM + logç exc P -1 ö 0 1 2 3 è Pim -1 ø + F4 dum95 IM Y GDP Pim exc P exc P dum95 95 F0 4 exc = G0+ G1 exc + G2 DR -1 exc DR G0 2 182
DW D W = H0+ H1 P P + H2 Ur + H3 dum75-1 W/W P/P -1 Ur 3 dum75 75 H0 3 GDP GDP log ( E) = I0+ I1 W P + I2 log( Y e ) E W P Y e GDP I0 2 1 3 [1 ] 183
1 GDP T + B = G + rb + IG + La + SAg + SSg + Tr + ba B G rb IG La SAg SSg Tr ba 184
- ( ) ( ) log( Y) - log ( E) = 1257. + 0. 00656 T + 0. 383 log( KP) - log ( E) + 0162. log KG ( 1. 120) ( 1. 232) ( 5. 707) ( 2. 472) + 0. 0166 dumb ( 3339. ) T Y KP KG E dumb 1989 91 D. W. 1.459 GDP 237323.34375 493215.90625 1975 2 *+ 1976 +* 1977 2 *+ 1978 2 *+ 1979 *+ 1980 * + 1981 2 *+ 1982 2 *+ 1983 +* 1984 +* 1985 2 *+ 1986 +* 1987 *+ 1988 *+ 1989 +* 1990 *+ 1991 2 *+ 1992 2 *+ 1993 +* 1994 +* 1995 +* 1996 *+ 1997 +* 237323.34375 493215.90625 185
0.62735 1.09508 1975 * + 1976 + * 1977 * + 1978 + * 1979 + * 1980 * + 1981 + * 1982 *+ 1983 *+ 1984 +* 1985 * + 1986 * + 1987 * + 1988 * + 1989 * + 1990 * + 1991 * + 1992 * + 1993 * + 1994 * + 1995 + * 1996 + * 1997 + * 0.62735 1.09508 186
( C) = 0 290+ 0 434 ( YDP) - 0 429 DP P + 0532 ( C 1) log.. log.. log ( 1. 475) ( 5. 670) (-4. 044) -1 ( 7. 872) D. W. 1.098 C YDP P/P -1 C -1-135505.60938 298424.93750 1975 +* 1976 *+ 1977 +* 1978 * + 1979 2 *+ 1980 + * 1981 *+ 1982 2 *+ 1983 +* 1984 2 *+ 1985 + * 1986 + * 1987 +* 1988 * + 1989 *+ 1990 * + 1991 *+ 1992 * + 1993 2 *+ 1994 +* 1995 2 *+ 1996 * + 1997 +* 135505.60938 298424.93750 187
201116.03125 416181.34375 1975 2 *+ 1976 +* 1977 2 *+ 1978 +* 1979 *+ 1980 *+ 1981 2 *+ 1982 2 *+ 1983 +* 1984 +* 1985 2 *+ 1986 2 *+ 1987 2 *+ 1988 *+ 1989 2 *+ 1990 *+ 1991 *+ 1992 2 *+ 1993 +* 1994 +* 1995 +* 1996 *+ 1997 +* 201116.03125 416181.34375 188
e IP =- 66286. 5+ 0. 315 Y - 0129. KP + 90745. 2 ROR + 561867. LAND -1 (-9. 058) ( 11. 226) (-7. 008) ( 4. 489) ( 9. 175) D.W. 1.092 IP ROR LAND Y e GDP 33113.19531 86589.92188 1975 * + 1976 + * 1977 * + 1978 + * 1979 * + 1980 * + 1981 + * 1982 * + 1983 + * 1984 + * 1985 * + 1986 + * 1987 +* 1988 + * 1989 * + 1990 * + 1991 * + 1992 +* 1993 + * 1994 + * 1995 + * 1996 *+ 1997 * + 33113.19531 86589.92188 189
-7 R =- 0. 000274+ 1040. RO+ 0. 414 10 Y (-0. 418) ( 20. 751) ( 3. 051) R RO Y GDP D.W. 1.467 0.019850 0.084484 1975 * + 1976 2 *+ 1977 * + 1978 *+ 1979 + * 1980 + * 1981 * + 1982 + * 1983 + * 1984 + * 1985 + * 1986 *+ 1987 2 *+ 1988 2 *+ 1989 + * 1990 * + 1991 * + 1992 *+ 1993 * + 1994 *+ 1995 2 *+ 1996 +* 1997 + * 0.019850 0.084484 190
* ( EX * Pex ) =- 2 616+ 0 447 ( Y ) + 0180 exc P ( Pex ) log.. log. log (-2. 225) ( 2. 508) ( 2. 136) Ex +. log æç -1 0707 ö è Pex ø ( 7. 298) -1 D.W. 1.750 EX Pex Y GDP exc P exc P 17903.93750 71114.96875 1975 +* 1976 2 *+ 1977 *+ 1978 + * 1979 +* 1980 * + 1981 * + 1982 * + 1983 * + 1984 * + 1985 * + 1986 2 *+ 1987 + * 1988 + * 1989 + * 1990 + * 1991 + * 1992 + * 1993 + * 1994 + * 1995 + * 1996 + * 1997 + * 17903.93750 71114.96875 191
( ) = 1098+ 0 234 ( ) + 0 249 ( * ) log IM Pim.. log Y. log Pim (. 1 194) ( 2. 126) (. 5 861) exc P æ IM +. log ç -1 ö 0 610 è Pim ø + 0104. dum95 ( 8. 141) -1 ( 3. 388) D.W. 1.511 IM Pim Y GDP exc P exc P 19547.10742 58096.79297 1975 + * 1976 + * 1977 + * 1978 + * 1979 2 *+ 1980 *+ 1981 *+ 1982 + * 1983 + * 1984 + * 1985 + * 1986 + * 1987 2 *+ 1988 * + 1989 * + 1990 * + 1991 * + 1992 * + 1993 * + 1994 * + 1995 * + 1996 * + 1997 *+ 19547.10742 58096.79297 192
exc = 11942. + 0. 877 exc + 151713. DR -1 ( 0. 818) ( 12. 600) ( 1. 043) exc DR D.W. 1.958 99.83000 305.14999 1975 * + 1976 * + 1977 * + 1978 + * 1979 * + 1980 2 *+ 1981 * + 1982 * + 1983 * + 1984 * + 1985 * + 1986 + * 1987 + * 1988 + * 1989 + * 1990 + * 1991 + * 1992 + * 1993 + * 1994 + * 1995 + * 1996 + * 1997 +* 99.83000 305.14999 193
DW DP W = 0. 071+ 0. 615 P - 1637. Ur + 0. 0633 dum75 ( 4. 480) ( 6. 087) -1 (-2. 939) ( 8.681) W/W Ur P/P -1 dum75 75 D.W. 1.520 3.39600 5.26824 1975 +* 1976 2 *+ 1977 +* 1978 *+ 1979 2 *+ 1980 + * 1981 * + 1982 * + 1983 *+ 1984 2 *+ 1985 + * 1986 + * 1987 + * 1988 *+ 1989 2 *+ 1990 * + 1991 *+ 1992 *+ 1993 2 *+ 1994 + * 1995 +* 1996 *+ 1997 *+ 3.39600 5.26824 194
( E) = 1602-0118 W P + 0 468 ( Y e ) log... log ( 9. 115) (-19. 249) ( 30. 102) D.W. 0.977 E W P Y e GDP 1078.02722 1285.26648 1975 + * 1976 + * 1977 *+ 1978 + * 1979 * + 1980 * + 1981 +* 1982 *+ 1983 * + 1984 *+ 1985 * + 1986 2 *+ 1987 * + 1988 2 *+ 1989 *+ 1990 +* 1991 2 *+ 1992 + * 1993 + * 1994 + * 1995 + * 1996 + * 1997 *+ 1078.02722 1285.26648 195