(EDITORIA)
IPCC AR4 195123 (likely) very likely
IPCC AR4 Palmer likely
Obs. CC : 2RMSE CC RMES 1 CC RMES CC RMES 1
Obs.
GCM [mm/day] [mm/day] (1981-2) y = 4.2352ln(x) 14.25 OBS 5 y = 3.8575ln(x) 17.227 99.9999 cgcm3_t47 99.999 cgcm3_t63 99.99 4 gfdl_2_ gfdl_2_1 99 giss_aom 3 ingv 9 miroc_h 7 miroc_m 2 5 mpi 3 P 1 _OBS =F (P _GCM ) cnrm csiro_3_ 1 1 csiro_3_5 iap.1.1 inmcm3_.1 ipsl_cm4.1 miub 1 3 5 7 9 11 11 13 13 15 15 17 17 19 19 mri 1 1 1 1 [mm/day] [mm/day] 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 [%] GCM GCM (1981-2) (1981-2) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 [] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 [] cgcm3_t47 cgcm3_t63 cgcm3_t47 gfdl_2_ cgcm3_t63 gfdl_2_1 gfdl_2_ giss_aom gfdl_2_1 ingv giss_aom miroc_h ingv miroc_m miroc_h mpi miroc_m cnrm mpi csiro_3_ cnrm csiro_3_5 csiro_3_ iap csiro_3_5 inmcm3_ iap ipsl_cm4 inmcm3_ miub ipsl_cm4 mri miub mri [] [] GCM (1981-2) OBS OBS 1 cgcm3_47.9 cgcm3_t6.8 gfdl_2_.7 gfdl_2_1 giss_aom.6 ingv ingv.5 OBS miroc_h.4 GCM miroc_m.3 mpi mpi.2 cnrm cnrm.1 csiro_3_ csiro_3_5 55 iap iap inmcm3_ ipsl_cm4 miub 1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 11112131415161718192 9 miub mri mri 3 3 [mm/day] 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 6 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 7 71 72 73
Max Rain Past = 85.59mm/d Future = 131.237mm/d 14 15 12 1 13 11 1982-2 246-264 1982-2 246-264 rain, mm/day 8 6 rain, mm/day 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 Rank 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 Rank (198 (198-2) 2)464
WEB-DHM (Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model), 27, DEM
WEB-DHM
(b) Wang, Koike et al., 29, Journal of Hydrology 21-24 (c) (a) (d)
21 (1) (a) (b) (c) (d) 21 (2) 22 23 24
WEB WEB-DHM : 348.5 km 2 : FAO : 5m :USGS :
1984 15 SAMEURA ONLY Q, m 3 /s 1 5 Rain Qsim Qobs Nash =.82 RE = 1% 1 2 3 4 Rain, mm/da 5 1/1/1984 3/1/1984 5/1/1984 7/1/1984 9/1/1984 11/1/1984 6
1982-2 SA>1 SA < -1 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 SA Rainfall SA Rainfall -4 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 SA Discharge SA Discharge -4 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 SA SA SA SA surface soil moisture SA surface soil moisture Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- root zone soil moisture SA SA root zone soil moisture Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-
(1982 (1982-2(246-264 19 DAILY DISCHARGE (1982-2) Q, m 3 /s. 1 9 1982-2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1/1/1982 1/1/1986 1/1/199 1/1/1994 1/1/1998 DAILY DISCHARGE (246-264) Long term trend: slight difference of extreme events, most probably because the years are not so far away from each other. 14 12 246-264 1 Q, m 3 /s. 8 6 4 2 1/1/246 1/1/25 1/1/254 1/1/258 1/1/262
14 15 Q, m 3 /s 12 1 8 6 Q, m 3 /s 13 1982-2 11 246-264 9 7 5 1982-2 246-264 4 3 1 11 Rank 2 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 Rank 1 (1982 (1982-2 (246 (246-264) 264) Q, m 3 /s 1 1 1 1 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 Rank 1982-2 246-264
SA Standard Anomaly Index for drought occurence drought frequency 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% -2.63% Past GCM ensemble results Future GCM ensemble results -1.75% +2.19% +.88% (+) (-).% Rain Discharge Surface soil moisture Root zone soil moisture