東京外国語大学英語専攻 3 年 飯谷泰樹
CDMとは Clean Development Mechanismの略称排出権取引 共同実施とともに 京都メカニズムの一角をなす
CDM とは 先進国が途上国 ( 非附属書 Ⅰ 国 ) において実施された温室効果ガスの排出削減事業から生じた削減分を獲得することを認める制度 総排出枠は増加 先進国は削減分を目標達成に活用でき 途上国は投資と技術移転の機会になるというメリットがある
CDM の現状 CDM 案件数 中国インドブラジル韓国マレーシアメキシコインドネシアチリアルゼンチン CDM ホスト国が偏りすぎていると批判されている
研究の目的 CDM が実施される国に偏りがあるという現状を鑑み ホスト国がもつ CDM を誘致する要因を検討する
先行研究 The Analysis of Country-to-Country CDM Permit Trading using the Gravity Model in International Trade (Wang & Firestone,2009) CDM の決定要素の判断にグラビティモデルを適用できることを示し それを用いて CDM の決定要素はホスト国の GHG 排出量であることを明らかにした クリーン開発メカニズムと知的財産権制度の関連性についての実証分析 ( 室屋 2009) CDM の実施の決定に ホスト国における知的財産制度の有無が大きな影響を与えることを 重力モデルを用いて分析し明らかにした
この論文の付加価値 先行研究が用いたモデルに新たな変数を導入して分析する 最新のデータを用いて 先行研究で得た結果を更新する
(Wang & Firestone 2009)( 室屋 2009) を参考に グラビティモデルを適用自分なりに変数を加え モデルを修正する lncdmijt=α1+β2lngpcit 1+β3lnGDPit 1+β4lnGPCjt 1+ β5lngdpjt 1+β6lnDij+β7COLij+β8KYOi+β9GHGti+β9GHGtj+β9GGRtI+εijt = ホスト国 iと投資国 jによってt 年に申請されたCDMプロジェクトの年平均 GHG 削 CDMijt 減量の総計 (2007~2012) GPCit 1 = 投資国 jのt-1 年における一人当たり国内総生産 GDPit 1 = t-1 年における国内総生産 Dij = ホスト国 iと投資国 jの距離 COLij = ホスト国 iと投資国 jの過去の植民地関係を表すダミー変数 KYOi = ホスト国 iの京都議定書への批准のダミー変数 GHG= ホスト国 iと投資国 jの年間 GHG 排出量 GGR= ホスト国のGDP 成長率 εij = 誤差項
GHG IGES/ CDM project database KYO UNFCCC/ kyoto protocol status of ratification GDP, GPC, GGR World Bank Database Distance Google Map/ Distance Calculator COL wikipedia GHG IEA/ CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
2010 年 i 国 j 国 CDM GPCi GPCj GDPi GDPj COL KYO GHGi GHGj D Azərbaycan UK 445,502 4,950 35,331 44,291,490,421 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 24,700,000 483521455 3,955 UAE UK 29538.013 35,025 35,331 270,334,929,438 2,183,862,761,501 1 1 153997094 483521455 5,464 Argentina Netherlands 689257 7,674 48,174 307,155,148,184 796,333,367,137 0 1 170237313 186997791 11374 Argentina Spain 1702836 7,674 31,714 307,155,148,184 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 170237313 268321284 10008 Argentina Canada 408671 7,674 39,659 307,155,148,184 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 170237313 536,630,237.0 9,001 Argentina Italy 2932 7,674 35,073 307,155,148,184 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 170237313 39847125 11,080 Argentina Switzerland 23102 7,674 65,790 307,155,148,184 509,467,163,037 0 1 170237313 43833885 11,012 Argentina France 105460 7,674 40,488 307,155,148,184 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 170237313 357811642 10,974 Argentina UK 926575 7,674 35,331 307,155,148,184 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 170237313 483521455 11,072 Albania Italy 6,783 3,846 35,073 12,118,580,597 2,111,148,008,712 1 1 3764626 39847125 1,867 Albania Germany 7994 3,846 40,275 12,118,580,597 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 3764626 761576768 1,324 Armenia Denmark 77105.5 2,914 56,227 8,648,015,305 310,544,743,670 0 1 4039303 47017655 2,894 Armenia Germany 17182.56 2,914 40,275 8,648,015,305 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 4039303 761576768 2,722 Armenia UK 30137 2,914 35,331 8,648,015,305 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 4039303 483521455 3,600 Armenia Japan 116,000 2,914 39,473 8,648,015,305 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 4039303 1143073495 7,949 Yemen UK 249052 1,106 35,331 24,581,907,774 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 21650888 483521455 5,907 Israel Austria 79878 26,032 45,859 194,866,363,197 383,626,706,101 0 1 68064049 69338797 2,444 Israel Germany 84464 26,032 40,275 194,866,363,197 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 68064049 761576768 2,919 Israel France 288,754 26,032 40,488 194,866,363,197 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 68064049 357811642 3,345 Israel UK 819039.07 26,032 35,331 194,866,363,197 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 68064049 483521455 3,616 Iran Austria 179038 4,931 45,859 362,661,111,280 383,626,706,101 0 1 509003411 69338797 3,195 Iran Norway 308093 4,931 78,457 362,661,111,280 378,849,392,446 0 1 509003411 39166223 3,970 India Italy 535592 1,147 35,073 1,365,372,912,989 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 1625786005 39847125 5,940 India Austria 40313 1,147 45,859 1,365,372,912,989 383,626,706,101 0 1 1625786005 69338797 5,587 India Netherlands 1832426.19 1,147 48,174 1,365,372,912,989 796,333,367,137 0 1 1625786005 186997791 6,398 India Canada 202956 1,147 39,659 1,365,372,912,989 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 1625786005 536,630,237.0 11,370 India Switzerland 425350 1,147 65,790 1,365,372,912,989 509,467,163,037 0 1 1625786005 43833885 6,372
India UK 9813626.57 1,147 35,331 1,365,372,912,989 2,183,862,761,501 1 1 1625786005 483521455 6,725 India Sweden 85748 1,147 43,640 1,365,372,912,989 405,782,994,635 0 1 1625786005 47574218 5,589 India Germany 2539268.86 1,147 40,275 1,365,372,912,989 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 1625786005 761576768 5,808 India Spain 1762610.82 1,147 31,714 1,365,372,912,989 1,455,956,368,264 0 1 1625786005 268321284 7,265 India Denmark 709984 1,147 56,227 1,365,372,912,989 310,544,743,670 0 1 1625786005 47017655 5,876 India Norway 42772 1,147 78,457 1,365,372,912,989 378,849,392,446 0 1 1625786005 39166223 6,019 India Finland 50417 1,147 44,838 1,365,372,912,989 239,382,754,295 0 1 1625786005 62918444 5,258 India France 111266 1,147 40,488 1,365,372,912,989 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 1625786005 357811642 6,616 India Japan 2711086.59 1,147 39,473 1,365,372,912,989 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 1625786005 1143073495 5,839 Indonesia Netherlands 1244619.4 2,272 48,174 539,579,959,053 796,333,367,137 1 1 41094349 186997791 11,352 Indonesia Finland 283201 2,272 44,838 539,579,959,053 239,382,754,295 0 1 41094349 62918444 10,148 Indonesia Canada 645435 2,272 39,659 539,579,959,053 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 41094349 536630237 15,655 Indonesia Switzerland 849211.935 2,272 65,790 539,579,959,053 509,467,163,037 0 1 41094349 43833885 11296 Indonesia UK 2983282.63 2,272 35,331 539,579,959,053 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 41094349 483521455 11,679 Indonesia Sweden 37309.8906 2,272 43,640 539,579,959,053 405,782,994,635 0 1 41094349 47574218 10,500 Indonesia Denmark 20815 2,272 56,227 539,579,959,053 310,544,743,670 0 1 41094349 47017655 10,823 Indonesia Germany 48125 2,272 40,275 539,579,959,053 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 41094349 761576768 10,762 Indonesia Korea 44 2,272 16,959 539,579,959,053 834,060,441,841 0 1 41094349 563077933 5,280 Indonesia Singapore 27083 2,272 38,923 539,579,959,053 194,131,267,855 0 1 41094349 62929116 877 Indonesia Japan 1687891.65 2,272 39,473 539,579,959,053 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 41094349 1143073495 5,760 Uzbekistan UK 261880.247 1,182 35,331 32,816,828,373 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 10022096 483521455 5,236 Uzbekistan Canada 70645 1,182 39,659 32,816,828,373 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 10022096 536630237 9,780 Uzbekistan Japan 974585.808 1,182 39,473 32,816,828,373 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 10022096 1143073495 6,002 Egypt Austria 1065881 2,462 45,859 188,984,088,127 383,626,706,101 0 1 177599357 69338797 2,384 Egypt Spain 284423 2,462 31,714 188,984,088,127 1,455,956,368,264 0 1 177599357 268321284 3,320 Egypt France 178157 2,462 40,488 188,984,088,127 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 177599357 357811642 3,200 Egypt UK 186574 2,462 35,331 188,984,088,127 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 177599357 483521455 3,496 Egypt Denmark 57455.8904 2,462 56,227 188,984,088,127 310,544,743,670 0 1 177599357 47017655 3,196 Egypt Germany 586946.219 2,462 40,275 188,984,088,127 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 177599357 761576768 2,883 Egypt Japan 248609 2,462 39,473 188,984,088,127 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 177599357 1143073495 9,570
El Salvador Netherlands 182840 3,341 48,174 20,661,000,000 796,333,367,137 0 1 586869 186997791 9,077 El Salvador Canada 199164 3,341 39,659 20,661,000,000 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 586869 536630237 3,769 El Salvador Japan 110278 3,341 39,473 20,661,000,000 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 586869 1143073495 12,564 Cambodia Japan 5593 735 39,473 10,401,935,532 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 3756285 1143073495 4,413 Cyprus Netherlands 53447 29,428 48,174 23,542,650,736 796,333,367,137 0 1 7222625 186997791 2,958 Kyrgyz Denmark 81000 871 56,227 4,690,029,461 310,544,743,670 0 1 6981949 47017655 4,584 Guatemala Canada 62125 2,697 39,659 37,733,791,089 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 10307319 186997791 3,703 Guatemala Netherlands 62125 2,697 48,174 37,733,791,089 796,333,367,137 0 1 10307319 186997791 9,066 Guatemala Switzerland 35822 2,697 65,790 37,733,791,089 509,467,163,037 0 1 10307319 43833885 9,331 Guatemala Spain 139265 2,697 31,714 37,733,791,089 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 10307319 268321284 8,713 Guatemala UK 474155 2,697 35,331 37,733,791,089 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 10307319 483521455 8,775 Georgia Netherlands 110748 2,441 48,174 10,766,836,277 796,333,367,137 0 1 4940393 186997791 3,219 Georgia UK 434400 2,441 35,331 10,766,836,277 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 4940393 483521455 3,529 Georgia Japan 34300 2,441 39,473 10,766,836,277 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 4940393 1143073495 7,861 Kenya Netherlands 11478.6192 768 48,174 30,580,367,979 796,333,367,137 0 1 10888148 186997791 6,645 Kenya Canada 30576 768 39,659 30,580,367,979 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 10888148 536630237 11,797 Kenya UK 122351 768 35,331 30,580,367,979 2,183,862,761,501 1 1 10888148 483521455 6,773 Kenya Japan 129627 768 39,473 30,580,367,979 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 10888148 1143073495 11,254 Cote d'ivoire Switzerland 39000.5271 1,239 65,790 23,041,633,638 509,467,163,037 0 1 5807977 43833885 4,538 Cote d'ivoire UK 996025 1,239 35,331 23,041,633,638 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 5807977 483521455 5,005 Costa Rica Netherlands 26842 6,386 48,174 29,382,590,138 796,333,367,137 0 1 6536321 186997791 9,068 Costa Rica Canada 9583 6,386 39,659 29,382,590,138 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 6536321 536630237 4,050 Costa Rica Spain 38273.6 6,386 31,714 29,382,590,138 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 6536321 268321284 8,527 Colombia Austria 27510 5,105 45,859 233,821,670,220 383,626,706,101 0 1 60665695 69338797 9,665 Colombia Netherlands 399766.145 5,105 48,174 233,821,670,220 796,333,367,137 0 1 60665695 186997791 8,845 Colombia Canada 5251.25 5,105 39,659 233,821,670,220 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 60665695 536630237 4,546 Colombia Switzerland 158229 5,105 65,790 233,821,670,220 509,467,163,037 0 1 60665695 43833885 8,893 Colombia Spain 152438 5,105 31,714 233,821,670,220 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 60665695 268321284 8,055 Colombia Germany 361726 5,105 40,275 233,821,670,220 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 60665695 761576768 9,435 Colombia France 99490 5,105 40,488 233,821,670,220 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 60665695 357811642 8,632
Colombia UK 341907 5,105 35,331 233,821,670,220 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 60665695 483521455 8,518 Colombia Japan 234362 5,105 39,473 233,821,670,220 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 60665695 1143073495 14,378 Congo, Dem. Rep. France 54735 185 40,488 11,204,008,249 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 3067273 357811642 5,993 Congo, Dem. Rep. Italy 65350.07 185 35,073 11,204,008,249 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 3067273 39847125 5,089 Congo, Dem. Rep. Canada 9768 185 39,659 11,204,008,249 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 3067273 536630237 10,385 Zambia Germany 3377 998 40,275 12,805,029,522 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 1937613 761576768 7,643 Jamaica Netherlands 52540 4,477 48,174 12,068,651,825 796,333,367,137 0 1 7955093 186997791 7,864 Jamaica Brazil 217262 4,477 8,373 12,068,651,825 1,620,165,226,994 0 1 7955093 387658063 5,603 Syrian Arab Rep. Japan 56436.326 2,564 39,473 53,934,534,351 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 57756141 1143073495 8,971 Singapore Canada 34787 38,923 39,659 194,131,267,855 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 62929116 536630237 14,846 Singapore Japan 84089 38,923 39,473 194,131,267,855 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 62929116 1143073495 5,316 Sri Lanka Netherlands 125751 2,057 48,174 42,066,209,172 796,333,367,137 0 1 1334365 186997791 8,412 Sri Lanka Switzerland 52422 2,057 65,790 42,066,209,172 509,467,163,037 0 1 1334365 43833885 8,212 Sri Lanka Denmark 117704.8 2,057 56,227 42,066,209,172 310,544,743,670 0 1 1334365 47017655 7,982 Sri Lanka Japan 187540.521 2,057 39,473 42,066,209,172 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 1334365 1143073495 6,876 Senegal France 4.61 1,014 40,488 12,769,040,890 2,619,685,000,757 1 1 5474369 357811642 4,191 Senegal Sweden 276.241096 1,014 43,640 12,769,040,890 405,782,994,635 0 1 5474369 47574218 5,761 Senegal UK 159028 1,014 35,331 12,769,040,890 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 5474369 483521455 4,382 Thailand Austria 146437.737 3,979 45,859 263,711,244,889 383,626,706,101 0 1 248450809 69338797 8,457 Thailand Netherlands 89254 3,979 48,174 263,711,244,889 796,333,367,137 0 1 248450809 186997791 9,211 Thailand Canada 506421 3,979 39,659 263,711,244,889 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 248450809 536630237 13,468 Thailand Switzerland 219153 3,979 65,790 263,711,244,889 509,467,163,037 0 1 248450809 43833885 9,251 Thailand Spain 146023 3,979 31,714 263,711,244,889 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 248450809 268321284 10,166 Thailand Denmark 776921 3,979 56,227 263,711,244,889 310,544,743,670 0 1 248450809 47017655 8,646 Thailand Germany 174626 3,979 40,275 263,711,244,889 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 248450809 761576768 8,627 Thailand France 13126 3,979 40,488 263,711,244,889 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 248450809 357811642 9,470 Thailand Luxembourg 120354 3,979 100,541 263,711,244,889 50,047,718,739 0 1 248450809 10614223 9,172 Thailand UK 1661911 3,979 35,331 263,711,244,889 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 248450809 483521455 9,543 Thailand Japan 2092605.72 3,979 39,473 263,711,244,889 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 248450809 1143073495 4,606 Tanzania Netherlands 27721 504 48,174 21,368,165,400 796,333,367,137 0 1 5979407 186997791 7,112
Tanzania Norway 315981 504 78,457 21,368,165,400 378,849,392,446 0 1 5979407 39166223 7,627 Tunisia Italy 495434 4,177 35073 43,607,568,688 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 21947467 39847125 594 Chile Netherlands 320686 10,120 48,174 171,956,957,320 796,333,367,137 0 1 69710445 186997791 11,949 Chile Canada 222095 10,120 39,659 171,956,957,320 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 69710445 536630237 8,744 Chile Switzerland 54833 10,120 65,790 171,956,957,320 509,467,163,037 0 1 69710445 43833885 11,680 Chile UK 665542.756 10,120 35,331 171,956,957,320 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 69710445 483521455 11,630 Chile Sweden 4485 10,120 43,640 171,956,957,320 405,782,994,635 0 1 69710445 47574218 13047 Chile Spain 1660809.4 10,120 31,714 171,956,957,320 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 69710445 268321284 10,677 Chile France 209471 10,120 40,488 171,956,957,320 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 69710445 357811642 11,585 Chile Japan 990892 10,120 39,473 171,956,957,320 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 69710445 1143073495 17,274 Chile Germany 411421 10,120 40,275 171,956,957,320 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 69710445 761576768 12,470 Dominica France 189899.178 6,791 40,488 482,161,713 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 18553357 357811642 7,161 Nigeria Portugal 13124.0466 1,085 22,019 168,587,267,756 234,119,384,366 0 1 45898552 48151771 3,636 Nigeria Germany 19327 1,085 40,275 168,587,267,756 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 45898552 761576768 4,834 Nigeria Norway 2699146 1,085 78,457 168,587,267,756 378,849,392,446 0 1 45898552 39166223 5,615 Nigeria Italy 1518727 1,085 35073 168,587,267,756 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 45898552 39847125 3,639 Nicaragua Netherlands 124827 1,420 48,174 8,156,131,183 796,333,367,137 0 1 4461832 186997791 8,998 Nicaragua Canada 22156 1,420 39,659 8,156,131,183 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 4461832 536630237 3,829 Nicaragua Brazil 89180 1,420 8,373 8,156,131,183 1,620,165,226,994 0 1 4461832 387658063 5,851 Nicaragua UK 405876 1,420 35,331 8,156,131,183 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 4461832 483521455 8,695 Nepal Netherlands 46477.3562 484 48,174 12,854,834,975 796,333,367,137 0 1 365325 186997791 7,018 Pakistan Netherlands 11179 951 48,174 161,819,031,346 796,333,367,137 0 1 134638439 186997791 5,730 Pakistan Switzerland 225473.008 951 65,790 161,819,031,346 509,467,163,037 0 1 134638439 43833885 5,726 Pakistan UK 62005.7068 951 35,331 161,819,031,346 2,183,862,761,501 1 1 134638439 483521455 6,058 Pakistan Denmark 9081.8411 951 56,227 161,819,031,346 310,544,743,670 0 1 134638439 47017655 5,201 Pakistan Germany 119481 951 40,275 161,819,031,346 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 134638439 761576768 5,141 Pakistan New Zealand 1530979 951 26,990 161,819,031,346 116,481,875,000 0 1 134638439 3086178 13,244 Pakistan Japan 1138060 951 39,473 161,819,031,346 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 134638439 1143073495 5,973 Panama Spain 139174 6,683 31,714 24,162,900,000 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 8397155 268321284 8,197 Panama UK 195110 6,683 35,331 24,162,900,000 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 8397155 483521455 8,517
Paraguay Switzerland 760.315068 2,514 65,790 15,954,961,410 509,467,163,037 0 1 4693579 43833885 10,173 Paraguay Japan 2970 2,514 39,473 15,954,961,410 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 4693579 1143073495 18,040 Paraguay UK 17198 2,514 35,331 15,954,961,410 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 4693579 483521455 10,174 Bangladesh Netherlands 112234 598 48,174 89,359,767,442 796,333,367,137 0 1 52983058 186997791 7,680 Philippines Italy 141505 1,832 35073 168,333,540,385 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 76432242 39847125 10,435 Philippines Netherlands 321568 1,832 48,174 168,333,540,385 796,333,367,137 0 1 76432242 186997791 10,444 Philippines Canada 7612 1,832 39,659 168,333,540,385 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 76432242 536630237 13,181 Philippines Switzerland 460565 1,832 65,790 168,333,540,385 509,467,163,037 0 1 76432242 43833885 10,673 Philippines UK 632810.844 1,832 35,331 168,333,540,385 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 76432242 483521455 10,766 Philippines Spain 288917 1,832 31,714 168,333,540,385 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 76432242 268321284 11,666 Philippines France 70020 1,832 40,488 168,333,540,385 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 76432242 357811642 10,794 Philippines Japan 359194.6 1,832 39,473 168,333,540,385 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 76432242 1143073495 2,977 Brazil Netherlands 1365061 8,373 48,174 1,620,165,226,994 796,333,367,137 0 1 387658063 186997791 9,741 Brazil Germany 1329944 8,373 40,275 1,620,165,226,994 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 387658063 761576768 10,194 Brazil Switzerland 1059599 8,373 65,790 1,620,165,226,994 509,467,163,037 0 1 387658063 43833885 9,354 Brazil France 149386 8,373 40,488 1,620,165,226,994 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 387658063 357811642 9,347 Brazil Canada 1021330 8,373 39,659 1,620,165,226,994 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 387658063 536630237 8,174 Brazil UK 3070716.09 8,373 35,331 1,620,165,226,994 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 387658063 483521455 9,465 Brazil Sweden 94844 8,373 43,640 1,620,165,226,994 405,782,994,635 0 1 387658063 47574218 10,885 Brazil Spain 375332.956 8,373 31,714 1,620,165,226,994 1,455,956,368,264 0 1 387658063 268321284 8,353 Brazil Portugal 142374.649 8,373 22,019 1,620,165,226,994 234,119,384,366 1 1 387658063 48151771 7,893 Brazil Japan 1102925 8,373 39,473 1,620,165,226,994 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 387658063 1143073495 18,559 Vietnam UK 1220024.67 1,130 35,331 97,180,304,813 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 130456072 483521455 9,223 Vietnam Netherlands 115737.175 1,130 48,174 97,180,304,813 796,333,367,137 0 1 130456072 186997791 8,892 Vietnam Canada 140281.622 1,130 39,659 97,180,304,813 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 130456072 536630237 12,646 Vietnam Switzerland 150127.918 1,130 65,790 97,180,304,813 509,467,163,037 0 1 130456072 43833885 9,036 Vietnam Sweden 10176 1,130 43,640 97,180,304,813 405,782,994,635 0 1 130456072 47574218 7,874 Vietnam Denmark 57211 1,130 56,227 97,180,304,813 310,544,743,670 0 1 130456072 47017655 8,294 Vietnam Germany 223830.26 1,130 40,275 97,180,304,813 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 130456072 761576768 8,328 Vietnam France 19049 1,130 40,488 97,180,304,813 2,619,685,000,757 1 1 130456072 357811642 9,202
Vietnam Japan 427429.142 1,130 39,473 97,180,304,813 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 130456072 1143073495 3,663 Peru Netherlands 317734 4,387 48,174 126,923,120,549 796,333,367,137 0 1 41935268 186997791 10,467 Peru Switzerland 48175 4,387 65,790 126,923,120,549 509,467,163,037 0 1 41935268 43833885 10,410 Peru Spain 624617.99 4,387 31,714 126,923,120,549 1,455,956,368,264 1 1 41935268 268321284 9,487 Peru France 17585 4,387 40,488 126,923,120,549 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 41935268 357811642 10,199 Peru UK 198584.06 4,387 35,331 126,923,120,549 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 41935268 483521455 10,135 Korea Finland 51864 16,959 44838 834,060,441,841 239,382,754,295 0 1 563077933 62918444 7,779 Korea UK 794809 16,959 35,331 834,060,441,841 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 563077933 483521455 8,895 Korea Japan 6658085 16,959 39,473 834,060,441,841 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 563077933 1143073495 1,130 Korea France 4575000 16,959 40,488 834,060,441,841 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 563077933 357811642 9,024 Korea Switzerland 1120158 16,959 65,790 834,060,441,841 509,467,163,037 0 1 563077933 43833885 9,023 South Africa Netherlands 195346 5,758 48,174 283,985,548,070 796,333,367,137 0 1 346837013 186997791 8,933 South Africa Spain 319480.216 5,758 31,714 283,985,548,070 1,455,956,368,264 0 1 346837013 268321284 8,000 South Africa Denmark 11160 5,758 56,227 283,985,548,070 310,544,743,670 0 1 346837013 47017655 9,115 South Africa UK 576985.118 5,758 35,331 283,985,548,070 2,183,862,761,501 1 1 346837013 483521455 8,967 South Africa Japan 119204 5,758 39,473 283,985,548,070 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 346837013 1143073495 13,465 China Italy 30209220.1 3,749 35073 4,991,256,406,735 2,111,148,008,712 0 1 7258526149 39847125 8,174 China Ireland 7925139 3,749 50,246 4,991,256,406,735 224,042,002,434 0 1 7258526149 38664009 8,310 China Austria 6419457.69 3,749 45,859 4,991,256,406,735 383,626,706,101 0 1 7258526149 69338797 7,491 China Netherlands 30696270.1 3,749 48,174 4,991,256,406,735 796,333,367,137 0 1 7258526149 186997791 7,875 China Canada 4659222 3,749 39,659 4,991,256,406,735 1,337,577,639,752 0 1 7258526149 536630237 10,513 China Switzerland 9159152.63 3,749 65,790 4,991,256,406,735 509,467,163,037 0 1 7258526149 43833885 8,234 China Sweden 12766743.1 3,749 43,640 4,991,256,406,735 405,782,994,635 0 1 7258526149 47574218 6,740 China Spain 7422138.4 3,749 31,714 4,991,256,406,735 1,455,956,368,264 0 1 7258526149 268321284 9,238 China Czech Rep. 238524 3,749 18,806 4,991,256,406,735 197,218,205,666 0 1 7258526149 114483522 7,487 China Denmark 1095926.37 3,749 56,227 4,991,256,406,735 310,544,743,670 0 1 7258526149 47017655 7,251 China Germany 11881194.2 3,749 40,275 4,991,256,406,735 3,298,635,952,562 0 1 7258526149 761576768 7,402 China Norway 949696.562 3,749 78,457 4,991,256,406,735 378,849,392,446 0 1 7258526149 39166223 7,087 China Finland 183846.132 3,749 44838 4,991,256,406,735 239,382,754,295 0 1 7258526149 62918444 6,369 China France 1585715.56 3,749 40,488 4,991,256,406,735 2,619,685,000,757 0 1 7258526149 357811642 8,272 China Belgium 308066.348 3,749 43,843 4,991,256,406,735 473,351,828,107 0 1 7258526149 106431359 8,015 China Portugal 68867 3,749 22,019 4,991,256,406,735 234,119,384,366 0 1 7258526149 48151771 9,709 China Luxembourg 2282327.8 3,749 100,541 4,991,256,406,735 50,047,718,739 0 1 7258526149 10614223 7,997 China UK 100216632 3,749 35,331 4,991,256,406,735 2,183,862,761,501 0 1 7258526149 483521455 8,177 China Japan 45886646.2 3,749 39,473 4,991,256,406,735 5,035,141,567,659 0 1 7258526149 1143073495 2,093
概要 回帰統計 重相関 R 0.508499 重決定 R2 0.258571 補正 R2 0.225537 標準誤差 7218260 観測数 212 分散分析表 自由度 変動 分散 測された分散有意 F 回帰 9 3.67E+15 4.08E+14 7.827421 7.04E-10 残差 202 1.05E+16 5.21E+13 合計 211 1.42E+16 係数 標準誤差 t P- 値 下限 95% 上限 95% 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0% 切片 103335.9 2666286 0.038756 0.969123-5153986 5360658-5153986 5360658 X 値 1 1.133458 82.39431 0.013757 0.989038-161.33 163.5967-161.33 163.5967 X 値 2-21.779 44.27342-0.49192 0.62331-109.076 65.51832-109.076 65.51832 X 値 3 4.48E-07 1.77E-06 0.252823 0.800662-3E-06 3.94E-06-3E-06 3.94E-06 X 値 4 8.74E-07 9.27E-07 0.942852 0.346883-9.5E-07 2.7E-06-9.5E-07 2.7E-06 X 値 5 378035.4 1835888 0.205914 0.837065-3241927 3997998-3241927 3997998 X 値 6 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0 0 X 値 7 0.001727 0.001212 1.42472 #NUM! -0.00066 0.004117-0.00066 0.004117 X 値 8-0.00056 0.003957-0.14243 0.886883-0.00837 0.007239-0.00837 0.007239 X 値 9-77.5873 160.6284-0.48302 0.629602-394.311 239.1362-394.311 239.1362
i 国 CDM GPCi GDPi GHGi GGR Azərbaycan 445,502 4,950 44,291,490,421 24,700,000 4.96 UAE 29538.013 35,025 270,334,929,438 153997094 1.3 Argentina 3858833 7,674 307,155,148,184 170237313 9.16 Albania 14777.3 3,846 12,118,580,597 3764626 3.5 Armenia 240425.06 2,914 8,648,015,305 4039303 2.2 Israel 1272135.1 26,032 194,866,363,197 68064049 4.98 Iran 487131 4931 3.62661E+11 509003411 6 India 20863417 1,147 1,365,372,912,989 1625786005 11.23 Indonesia 7827018.5 2272 5.3958E+11 41094349 6 Uzbekistan 1307111.1 1182 32816828373 10022096 9 Egypt 2608046.1 2462 1.88984E+11 177599357 5.15 El Salvador 492282 3341 20661000000 586869 1 Cambodia 5593 735 10,401,935,532 3756285 6.1 Guatemala 773492 2697 37733791089 10307319 2.91 Georgia 579448 2441 10766836277 4940393 6.25 Kenya 294032.62 768 30580367979 10888148 5.76 Cote d'ivoire 1035025.5 1239 23041633638 5807977 2.45 Costa Rica 74698.6 6386 29382590138 6536321 4.68 Colombia 1780679.4 5105 2.33822E+11 60665695 3.97 Congo, Dem. Rep. 129853.07 185 11204008249 3067273 7.17 Jamaica 269802 4477 12068651825 7955093-1.44 Syrian Arab Rep. 56436.326 2,564 53,934,534,351 57756141 3.44 Singapore 118876 38923 1.94131E+11 62929116 14.78 Sri Lanka 483418.32 2057 42066209172 1334365 8.02 Senegal 159308.85 1014 12769040890 5474369 4.28 Thailand 5946832.5 3979 2.63711E+11 248450809 7.81 Tanzania 343702 504 21368165400 5979407 7.04 Chile 4540235.2 10,120 171,956,957,320 69710445 5.78 Nigeria 4250324 1085 1.68587E+11 45898552 7.98 Nicaragua 642039 1420 8156131183 4461832 3.62 Pakistan 3096259.6 951 161,819,031,346 134638439 3.07 Panama 334284 6,683 24,162,900,000 8397155 7.45 Paraguay 20928.315 2514 15,954,961,410 4693579 13 Philippines 2282192.4 1,832 168,333,540,385 76432242 7.63 Brazil 9711512.7 8,373 1,620,165,226,994 387658063 7.53 Vietnam 2363866.8 1130 97180304813 130456072 6.78 Peru 1206696.1 4,387 126,923,120,549 41935268 8.79 Korea 13199916 16,959 834,060,441,841 563077933 6.32 South Africa 1222175.3 5758 2.83986E+11 346837013 3.09 China 273954785 3749 4.99126E+12 7258526149 10.45 Dataset の中から ホスト国に関するデータのみをまとめた
概要 回帰統計 重相関 R 0.986259 重決定 R2 0.972706 補正 R2 0.969587 標準誤差 7521918 観測数 40 分散分析表 自由度 変動 分散 測された分散有意 F 回帰 4 7.06E+16 1.76E+16 311.8366 7.71E-27 残差 35 1.98E+15 5.66E+13 合計 39 7.26E+16 係数 標準誤差 t P- 値 下限 95% 上限 95% 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0% 切片 184279.5 2611099 0.070575 0.944137-5116533 5485092-5116533 5485092 X 値 1-22.8432 142.989-0.15976 0.873992-313.126 267.4399-313.126 267.4399 X 値 2-3.5E-06 5.39E-06-0.65565 0.516336-1.4E-05 7.4E-06-1.4E-05 7.4E-06 X 値 3 0.039281 0.003822 10.2781 4.12E-12 0.031522 0.047039 0.031522 0.047039 X 値 4-305846 398580.7-0.76734 0.448026-1115008 503315.4-1115008 503315.4
今後の予定 年度数を増やして分析する プロジェクトタイプごとの分析も行ってみる 変数を増やす
クリーン開発メカニズムと知的財産権制度の関連性についての実証分析 ( 室屋 2009) Who Hosts the Clean Development Mechanism? Determinants of CDM Project Distribution (Florens,2010) The Clean Development Mechanism Changing the Distribution Pattern (Hansen,2012) 持続可能な発展に対する貢献 の視点によるCDMプロジェクトの分析ー CDM 制度枠組みの今後の課題 ( 金他 2007) The Analysis of Country-to-Country CDM Permit Trading using the Gravity Model in International Trade (Wang & Firestone,2009) CDMの現状と課題について ( 三菱 UFJモルガンスタンレー証券 2009) Hype or Reality: Can the CDM trigger FDI?(Saner,2005) クリーン開発メカニズムの発展と変遷 ( 沖村 2011) IGES CDMプロジェクトデータベース ( 高橋他 2013)