経済産業研究所 (RIETI) BBL セミナー プレゼンテーション資料 3 年 月 8 日 世界経済の見通しと政策課題 木下祐子 資料の引用は IMF の HP に掲載されている世界経済見通し本文及び図表から直接の引用としてください http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
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7 WEO Update 4
PMI) GDP / 5 Advanced economies 5 Advanced economies 58 56 Emerging market economies Emerging market and developing economies 54 5 5 5 48-5 46 Sep. 3 3-3Q3 96 98 4 6 8 : IMF ; IMF 5
....6.5.4.3.. / / ; x ; 3 ( ) 4 WEO ) United States Europe Germany 3 Japan 7 6 United States 5 4 3 t t+ t+4 t+36 7 8 9 3 : Bloomberg, L.P. / 3 9 4 / 6 Nov. 4
5 5 ( ; ) ( ) VXY / VX Sovereign / United B States BB Corporate 3/ 3 5 May, 75 5 5-5 - -5 - -5-3 Equity Bond ECB Greek Irish st ECB June 9, May, crisis 3 LTROs crisis LTROs 6 9 5 3 :H :H :H :H :H :H Sep. 3 4 6 8 75 5 5 Oct 3 : Bloomberg, L.P.; EPFR Global/Haver Analytics IMF / JPMorgan : ECB ; = LTROs = / JPMorgan EMBI 7 3/ JPMorgan CEMBI
( 3 8 ) 5 3 4 Percent change 8 from April 3 to Aug. 3 5-5 - -5 Sur. Def. Aln. : Haver Analytics; IMF 3 4 IMF : Aln. = ; Def. = ; Sur. = 8
..5. -.5 -. : 3 / ( ) ) : / ( ; 4 4 WEO 3 -.5 -. -.5-3. -3.5 Potential Cyclical Change in real growth Brazil South Africa China Russia India Brazil India China South Africa Russia 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 - - : IMF / 3 WEO Box. ) 9 / 5 3 7
(5 ) Emerging Market and Developing Economies Euro area Japan United States 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 - - -3 4 6 8 IMF 3 5 5 5 3 4 Commodity Price Index Non-Fuel Price Index Fuel (energy) Index 5 6 7 8 IMF ; 9 3 3 3:Q3 3
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WEO WEO GDP ( ) 3.9.6 -.4..5.5 3.8 7.6 (3 ) 3 3..7 -.6..5.5 5.6 7.8 (3 7 ) 4 3.6.6...5 3. 5. 7.3 (3 ) 4 3.8.7.9. 3. 3.3 6.3 7.7 (3 7 ) : IMF 3
( ) 4 United States Japan Euro Area 3 Global Growth 3 Change in Global Growth 4 Global Growth 4 Change in Global Growth IMF EMDEs Other Advanced Economies Developing Asia Latin America Other EMDEs EMDEs Global Growth 3 3 4 4 4 3.5 3.5.5.5 -.5 -
( ) 6 5 4 3 9 percent confidence interval 9 9 9 percent confidence 3 4 interval (April WEO 3 WEO) Baseline 3 4 : IMF 5
: : ; : ; : ; ; 6
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GDP Quarter over quarter (SAAR) Year over year 8 6 4 - :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q Australia, Japan & New Zealand :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q East Asia (excl. China) :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q :Q :Q3 :Q4 3:Q 3:Q ASEAN China India CEIC Data Company Ltd.; Haver Analytics; IMF ASEAN 8 GDP
GDP 3 WEO % % % % 5% 5% 7% 7% 9
5 8 6 4 8 6 4 Indonesia ンドネシア5 Cumulative 9 flow, 3 5 Sep - 3 May Cumulative flow since 3 May -5 - -5 3 9 ン レイインィ- ガ ードフリポ-5 - -5 5 マシピーアタ Taiwan POC イル Singapore Hong Kong SAR シン Korea China Malaysia Thailand India Philippines 3 5 9 8 6
: FCI ( ) Australia, Japan & New Zealand China East Asia (excl. China) ASEAN India 8 6 4 - - -4-4 -6-6 -8-8 - - Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan- Apr- ASEAN PPP GDP Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Sep- Nov- Feb-3 Apr-3 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Jul-3
: 8 7 6 5 4 3 - - Net exports Public domestic demand Private domestic demand Growth 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 China East Asia India ASEAN (excl. China) IMF IMF ASEAN Australia, Japan & New Zealand
: Latest Target 4 forecast 3 forecast 8 6 4 Taiwan Province of China New Zealand ュージーラ Thailand Korea 4 3 イSingapore ンガポーMalaysia Australia ーストランオリレーシアシアマPhilippines CEIC Data Comany Haver Analytics IMF 4 3 ィリピChina India Hong Kong SAR Vietnam トナム )ベンド イ ル タイニ フンド Indonesia ン本ド(ネ右シ軸ア日Japan (RHS) 5 4 3
( ) 3 4 5. 5. 5.3.3..5... 6.6 6.7 6.6 7.7 7.6 7.3..8 3.7 3.5 4. 5. 3. 3.8 5. ASEAN 5.7 4.9 5.3 6. 5.3 5.5 5.6 4.7 4.9 6.8 6.8 6..3 3.5 3.4 6.5 3. 5. 5. 5.3 5.4 ( ) 8 6 4 5 percent confidence interval 7 percent confidence interval 9 percent confidence interval 5 7 9-9 3 4 IMF IMF 4
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