(IPCC) 2001 SPM IPCC 5 1 2 SPM 2001 1 3 1 IPCC climate change climate change variation change 2 122 516 21 337 3 99 2001 1 17 20 8
20 0.6 1861 20 0.6 0.2 4,5 1a 1994 6 0.15 1995 2000 1910 1945 1976 2000 20 1861 1990 10 1998 7 1a [ ] 20 1000 1b 7 1990 10 1998 7 1000 1861 1950 1993 10 0.2 0.1 10 2 4 0.05 5 5% 95% 6 IPCC SAR SAR 7 (virtually certain) 99 (very likely) 90 99% (likely) 66 90% medium likelihood 33 66% unlikely 10 33 very unlikely 1 10% (exceptionally unlikely) %
8km 40 1950 8km 10 0.1 1979 8km 10 0.05 0.10 10 0.15 0.05 8km 20 1960 10% 7 20 2 7 20 1950 10 15 40 7 20 0.1 0.2m
1950 20 10 0.5 1% 7 10 10 10 0.2 0.3% 7 20 30 10 30 20 10 0.3% 7 20 2 4% 7 20 2% 7 1950 7 1970 100 Warm episodes of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon ENSO ENSO 20 1900 1995 ENSO
1978 10 20 8 2 3 8 1 Wm -2
CO 1750 31 42 CO 2 2000 7 CO 2 20 CO 4 CO 1990 CO CO 7 20 CO 1.5ppm 0.4 9 1990 0.9ppm 0.2 2.8ppm 0.8 CO CH 1750 1060ppb 151% 42 CH CH 1980 1990 CH CO CH N 2 O 1750 46ppb 17 1000 N 2 O N 2 O 9 ppm 100 ppb 10 300ppm 100 300
CFCl 3 CF 2 Cl 2 1995 CHF 2 Cl,CF 3 CH 2 F PFCs SF 6 1750 2000 2.43 Wm -2 CO 2 1.46 Wm -2 CH 4 0.48 Wm -2 0.34 Wm -2 N 2 O 0.15 Wm -2 3 1979 2000 0.15Wm -2 21 1750 36 0.35Wm -2 CO 2 0.4Wm -2 0.2Wm -2 0.1Wm -2 0.2Wm -2
100 1750 0.3Wm -2 20 1970 11 1880 1920 1960 1991 20 40 1979
20 4 ENSO 50 100 7 1000 1b 7 35 50 20 4a 20
50 7 50 4c 140 50 7 20 7 20 21 IPCC SRES 5 SRES IS92
5 IS92 CO 2 21 CO 2 7 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 2100 CO 2 5b SRES 540 970ppm 1750 280ppm 90 250 10 30 490 1260ppm 1750 75 350 CO 2 21 CO 2 40 70ppm CO 2 2100 SRES 2000 CH 4 190 1970ppb 1760ppb N2O 38 144ppb 316ppb 12 62% HFCs PFCs SF 6 CH 4 CO 2
CO 2 450 650 1000ppm CO 2 100 200 1990 CO 2 SRES 5c 21 SRES CO 2 4 3 2000 21 CO 2 IPCC SRES 1990 2100 1.4 5.8 5d 35 SRES
10 11 6 IS92 1.0 3.5 SRES IS92 20 10,000 7 2100 SRES 20 30 20 30 IS92a 10 0.1 0.2 7 5d 7 40 10 1.7 4.2 1.5 4.5 11
21 21 7 7 1 20 21 a 1 20 21 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 heat index 12 7 b 7 7 7 7 7 c 7 c a 2 9 10 b c 12 heat index
7 100 7 7 2100 2100
21 7 7 21 7 SRES 1990 2100 0.09 0.88m 5e IS92 0.13 0.94m CO 2 N 2 O PFCs SF 6 CO 2 4 1 21 100 100 0.2 0.3
1 3 7 3 7m 5.5 1000 3m 7 1000 3m
1 140 1000 a 10 10 95 140 100 0.6 0.2 b 1000 50 95 20 9 1990 1000 10 1998 7 a 2 2.7c b 2 2.20
2 (a) CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O 1000 10 3 (b) SO 2 (a) 3 3.2b CO 2 4 4.1a b CH 4 4 4.2 N 2 O (b) 5 5.4a
3 2 1750 6 6.6
a b c b 100 c b 12 12.7
5 21 a SRES IS92a b c d e SRES SRES 35 SRES SRES 2100 a 3 3.12 b 3 3.12 c 5 5.13 d 9 9.14 e 11 11.12 2
SRES A1 A1 21 A1 A1 A1FI A1T A1B A2 1 B1 A1 21 B2 A2 B1 A1 A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 SRES