/, 2001 1 GDP................................... 2 2.......................... 2 3.................................... 4 4........................................ 5 5..................................... 7 6 IS-LM.................................. 9 7..................................... 11 8...................................... 12 9..................................... 13 10............................................ 14 11....................................... 15 12.................................. 17
1 GDP Q GDP (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) A (b) (e) (f) Q GDP A GDP GDP = Q 1990 GNP GDP 4095 3004 1091 GNP A Q 1995 7 A 2 2
2 5.5% 4 5% 80 85 Q A Q A (c) (a) (b) (c) (d) Q 1970 1970 A 1970 3
Q 1986 90 92 A d+i1 d+i2 3 0 K2K1 E2E1 資 本 の 限 資 界 本 生 (i=i2のケース) (i=i1のケース) の 産 使 性 用 者 費 用 K I t = K t (1 d)k t 1 λ I t = λ(k t K t 1 ) + dk t 1 (0 < λ < 1) 4
Q A Q A Q d I t A d K t I t = K t (1 d)k t 1 d I t 4 r R ρ > 0 R = r + ρ 1 d t R = p t+1 p t p t + d t p t p t+1 p t p t + d t p t = r + ρ p t p t = d t + p t+1 1 + r + ρ (4.1) d t ρ r p t+1 r ρ t t + 1 1 p t+1 = d t+1 + p t+2 1 + r + ρ 5
(4.1) p t = d t 1 + r + ρ + d t+1 + p t+2 (1 + r + ρ) 2 2 p t+2 = d t+2 + p t+3 1 + r + ρ T p t = d t 1 + r + ρ + d t+1 (1 + r + ρ) 2 + + d t+t (1 + r + ρ) T +1 + p t+t +1 (1 + r + ρ) T +1 p t+t +1 T p t = i=0 d t+i (1 + r + ρ) i+1 q q = + q 1 q q q q 1 2 q 6
q q q q q q q Q A Q p t /d t = 50 5% r = 0.05 ρ A p t = d/(r + ρ) r = 0.05 ρ = 0 p t /d = 20 Q q A q q Q A 5 L = L(Y, i) 7
T MV = P T V k M = kp Y 1970 k ECM 1 GDP 2 3 i t = + 0.5(y t y t ) + 0.5(π t π ) + π t Q ECU ECU ECU ECU A Q 1970 1970 A 1970 1970 Q M = kp Y M Y P A k Q 10% 1 2 8
A M H C/D q R/D s (q + 1/q + s) q = 1/2 s = 0.1 (0.5 + 1)/(0.5 + 0.1) = 2.5 2.5 i 0 財 市 場 の 超 過 供 給 Y 6 IS-LM IS Y = A + c(y T ) + (I 0 vi) + G i 財 市 場 の 超 過 需 要 Y > C+I+G i = A ct + I 0 + G 1 c v v Y i Y IS (1 c)/v v Y < C+I+G IS L(Y, i) = L 0 i + ky li (L 0 > 0, k > 0, l > 0) LM M P = L 0 + ky li i i = k l Y + L 0 M P l i Y LM k/l k 0 貨 幣 M/P 市 場 の > 貨 L(Y,i) 超 幣 過 市 供 場 給 の 超 過 需 要 LM M/P < L(Y,i) Y l 9
IS LM Y 0 i 0 Y 0 = l(a ct + I 0 + G) v(l 0 M P ) l(1 c) + kv i 0 = k(a ct + I 0 + G) + (1 c)(l 0 M P ) l(1 c) + kv G M Q 0.9 100 A Y = 1 100 = 1, 000 1 0.9 Q P Y M = kp Y k k LM A Q G T G = T G 6-3 A G c T ( G c T ) = (1 c) G c(1 c) G Y Y = (1 c) G + c(1 c) G + c 2 (1 c) G + = (1 c)( G + c G + c 2 G + ) ( ) 1 = (1 c) 1 c G = G Q (a) t (b) T I A (b) (1/1 c) (a) Y ty Y ty = (1 t)y Y = A + c(1 t)y + I + G Y 0 Y 0 = A + I + G 1 c + ct 10
I 1 1 c + ct I 1 1 c + ct t > 0 (a) (a) (a) 7 IS LM LM 100% LM LM IS i < 0 1990 Q GDP GDP A GDP GDP GDP GDP Q 1 2 11
A Q 5% 1% 4% % % A 4% 1% 8 1 2 3 1 2 3 Q A Q A Q A 12
9 P t H t P t P t 1 P t 1 Ht P t Q (a) (b) (c) (d) A (c) Q (a) (b) (c) (d) A (b) Q A B A B 2 A B 3 (a) (b) A (a) A B 2 (b) A B 3 Q 13
A 10 1 2 1970 求 人 数 V ベバリッジ UV 求 曲 45 職 線 線 者 数 U 1 2 3 4 5 2 1990 Q (a) (b) (c) (d) 14
A (b) Q (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) A (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Q 1960 A 1960 11 = 1 Y = w L Y Y = wl Y L L wl/y = = (1 α) L 15
Y = A(t)F 1 (K, L) Y = F 2 (K, A(t)L) Y = F 3 (A(t)K, L) 1 Y = F (K, L, H) 2 Y = F (K, K, L) K Q GDP 10 50% 50% 5% 70% 10 % A GDP 70% 30% 50% = +(0.3 50%)+(0.7 5%) = 50% 15% 3.5% = 31.5% 50% 15%/50% 3.5%/50% 31.5%/50% 30% 7% 63% 16
Q GDP GDP A GDP GDP GDP GDP 10 20 GDP Q (a) (b) (c) (d) A (a) (c) Q % A 0% 12 J Y C + I + G X M = Y (C + I + G) X M = (S I) (G T ) Q (a) (b) (c) (d) 17
A (c) Q A Q A (c) (a) (b) (c) (d) 2007.03.26 18