10 2000 10 *** * E-mail: shuuichi.uemura@boj.or.jp ** E-mail: yoshiko.satou@boj.or.jp
2
3
1 11 3 60 70 3 80 90 89 5 91 12 3 91 4 1 1 3 12 2000 9 1 1 19902000 4
GDP 2 1985 100 GDP 150 110 GDP 1955 GDP GDP GDP GDP 2 [2000a][2000b] 1975 31 GDP GDP 2 3 2 GDP ADF 1955-1999 5
32 1.3 1 1.3 3 80 3 3 3270 80 1 3 90 3 TOPIX 41 3 1 0.517 42 3 32 6
1 5190 23 98 4 52 23 6180 93 80 2003 5 94 62 4 5 2003 7
5 7 94 3 97 99 1993 5 / 8 8
91297 99 9396 2 5km 2000 330km 2000 78%96 / 10 6 11191 3 30 45 99 6 112 30 6 9
113 92 80 7 121 7 90 10
122 121 3 8 131 70 2010 9 132 1999 8 GDP 94 96 GDP GDP GDP 9 3 1997 1997 /6.661.136 GDP/4.252 t 26.5 t 3.5 11
10 11 141 14270 80 90 12 15 90 10 90 30 99 1 1 1,987 [2000] 425 11 12 19891995 12
16 13 2001 3 14 16 95 11 SPC REIT 15 17193 9798 1400 13 16 14 5 15 REITReal Estate Investment Trust 95 13
17290 94 REIT BOX 16 100 + ( ) DCFDiscounted Cash FlowDCF 16 14
P å R n r) = n t + t t= 1 (1 + r) (1 + R t t r 17 nr 5 10 +1 18 93 61.8 21.399 38.9 33.6 35.8 40.7 93 66.7 29.499 43.9 43.7 97 191 19290 99 99 ROEReturn on Equity ROAReturn on Asset 17 60 [2000b] 67 15
1 18 10 18 16
5 19 201 27.6 19 1994 27.2 55 8.2 16 14.8 29 20 17
21 20299 1 1 51.6 22 203 4 2 21 GMSGeneral Merchandise Store 22 2 23 18
19
()
* * * ** **
16 (1) (2) 1995 4 1998 9 SPC 1999 9 2000 11 SPC 300 10 SPT 2000
35.8 19.9 40.7 3.6 38.9 21.1 33.6 6.4 37.0 23.0 34.0 6.0 49.2 17.0 29.4 4.4 53.1 19.8 22.9 4.2 49.3 19.5 26.8 4.4 61.9 12.5 21.9 3.6 61.8 11.4 21.3 5.6 43.9 43.7 12.4 42.9 42.9 14.3 48.5 38.9 12.6 48.9 36.3 14.8 49.7 36.2 14.1 61.5 32.0 6.5 66.7 29.4 3.9