ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.10 by February 2002 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan 1
ESRI 2
ABSTRACT * In this paper, based on the Employment Trend Survey in 2000 and an interview in the companies which reduced the personnel and outplacement companies, we arrange the fact about separation and change of occupation for employers convenience of 45 or more years old less than 60 years old workers. And it is the purpose to consider what policy is required for finding of a new job of restructuring middle-aged and older workers. The point of this paper is as follows. 1. The firm which carried out the employment adjustment by restructuring such as collection of voluntary resignation and dismissal was 11.7% between 1992 and 1994, on the other hand, between 1998 and 2000 it was going up to 17.7%. 2. As the reason which separation and unemployment of a lot of middle-aged and older workers generate, some environmental changes which surround a company and a market have influenced complexly. 3. As a reason why middle-aged and older workers who resign from a company for management s convenience increase, decline of transfer between firms (shukko) can be mentioned. 4. As a reason why the function of transfer between firms (shukko) is decline, firstly, the business conditions of small and medium sized enterprises, receiving the transferees, have been getting worsened seriously, secondly, the long-term business relationships between firms are more likely to be weakened, and, thirdly, the problem of balance with an early-retirement incentive plan and transfer between firms (shukko) can be mentioned. 5. Irrespective of the reason for separation or age, the change of an occupation and the fall of a company scale by change of occupation have influenced the wages fall significantly. And when a job-hunting period is six months or more, the treatment after change of occupation is worsened in many cases greatly. 6. For the senior involuntary separation for management s convenience, mediation of previous firms and the practical use of a human network through personal connection are important for early finding of a new job. 7. Finding of a new job is very difficult only at the manpower development for change of occupation by restructuring middle-aged and older workers' self-reliance. Responsibility for the wording of abstract : Kentaro Abe (Economic and Social Research Institute, 3
1. 2001 12 28 5.5% 11 2001 11 45-54 4.7% 1.4% 1 20012 45-54 5 8 25-34 3 4 18 2 2000 Cabinet Office) 4
1997 2002 2000 45 60 90 2001 2001a 45-59 2. 30 2 6 1994 12 2000 1992 94 11.7% 1998 2000 17.7% 3 1000 2 94 8.5% 2000 23.8% 4 1 100999 11.7%15.6% 30-99 5
11.9% 18.2% 2000 191.9 61.6 1994 8.4% 2000 23.1%3 1 5.9 70.9 10.2 29.5 3 13 3. 4 90 45-59 20% 1997 29.3% 1998 6
1999 16.9% 15.3% 5 5 100 1996 20.4 1999 40.5 1000 7.6 9.1 90 45-59 90 95 2.9 99 2.4 6 1 45-59 1996 9 45-59 98 2000 3 90 (2001 96 85% 2000 65% 7
98 4. 3 90 100 93 2506 9 2627 120 98 2000 2585 9 2001 8
9 5. 2000 5 45-59 10 20012 45-54 13 1 38.3%
10 27.0% 87.9% 1998 1 87.1% 6 4% 13.7% 28.2% 6. 2000 2 3 11
3 12 2 13 2 45-59 45 0 1 45 45 11
45 1 45 (on-the-job search) on-the-job search 2001 45 6 45 1 3 3 6 1 6 1 6 2001 2001 6 6 7. 12
2000 26.4% 3 bivariate probit model 3 14 1999 2000 3 98 15.1% 2000 39.5% 3 13
3 Granovetter(1995) 2001 2001b 15 3 2 6 2 16 8 6 45 6 45 14
45 7 45 2000 17 45 2 45 8. 45-59 2001 IT 15
16 1998 90 2000
17 2001 1 30 9 90 20012 13 4554
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Aoki, Masahiko (1988) Information, incentives, and bargaining in the Japanese economy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Brunello, Giorgio (1988). Organizational Adjustment and Institutional Factors in Japanese Labour Market Adjustment, European Economic Review 32, pp.841-60. 2001 9 (1999) [ ] TBS 2001 IT GranovetterMark.(1995). Getting A Job. 2 nd Edition, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ((1998). ) GreeneWilliam 2000Economic Analysis, Fourth Edition, Prentice-Hall I, II 2001a = (2001b) JILI FORUM 2001- No.10, 46-61 2001 2001 9 2001 6 2001 9 (2001) 9 2001 10 19-27 19
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0.3 0.0 16.2 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.9 1.4 7.9 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3 27.0 0.4 87.9 2.7 0.8 3.9 0.0 0.1 4.2 35.0 0.0 8.5 38.3 16.2 12.8 0.7 0.1 23.5 10.4 0.5 3.1 9.6 43.5 5.5 0.0 0.6 37.3 8.5 0.1 0.0 26.5 13.6 45.6 2.7 1.2 10.4 1.3 0.0 4.1 7.3 9.9 5.2 64.2 1.2 8.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.7 95.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.3 0.0 0.1 3.3 30.2 23.2 2.1 6.5 34.7 5.6 0.1 3.6 10.6 15.1 8.0 2.7 0.5 59.5 100.0 0.3 27.4 18.5 15.9 12.9 1.7 0.9 22.6 45-59 22
11.9 28.2 0.2 2.8 10.6 34.1 10.1 2.9 11.2 15.8 4.4 68.4 13.6 2.7 0.3 3.0 4.2 3.4 7.4 3.9 4.1 46.4 9.1 19.7 12.1 2.8 2.0 7.2 7.3 4.1 0.1 27.4 4.8 47.7 5.8 3.0 6.5 1.3 0.0 0.1 16.2 45.7 24.1 11.6 1.1 6.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 6.0 68.7 8.9 11.9 40.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.6 1.8 87.1 2.6 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 16.5 25.3 12.9 33.2 100.0 5.3 11.4 6.2 5.8 13.0 13.7 39.0 5.5 100.0 45-59 23
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50-54 -0.2349-1.98 * -0.0165-0.13 (45-49 ) 55-59 -0.3488-3.04 *** -0.2545-2.17 ** -0.1304-1.07 0.1083 0.92 ( ) -0.3552-1.44-0.3040-1.23-0.2753-0.94 0.0918 0.23-0.1179-0.67 0.2539 1.30-0.0668-0.35 0.2468 1.18 1,000 0.0731 0.57 0.1728 1.31 (100-299 ) 300-999 0.0540 0.34-0.2142-1.35 30-99 0.0964 0.70 0.2315 1.75 * 5-29 -0.0554-0.38 0.3280 2.23 ** 1-4 -0.4041-1.10 0.5334 1.55 0.1036 0.51-0.0822-0.37 ( ) -0.2865-1.51-0.0231-0.11-0.4817-2.09 ** -0.3930-1.50-0.8883-3.84 *** -0.5437-2.32 ** -0.3441-1.60-0.2706-1.14 0.7691 4.30 *** -0.2464-1.35-0.2450-1.04-0.0250-0.09 0.3307 2.35 ** 0.0101 0.08 ( ) 0.5893 1.65 * -0.2991-0.85 0.8888 1.11 0.5087 0.63 1.2808 8.09 *** 1.9515 9.65 *** 0.7103 4.36 *** 0.4257 2.77 *** 1.4557 7.24 *** 1.0486 5.70 *** 0.1562 0.60 0.3583 1.40 0.1919 (0.0600) 1,357 39 457.80-1155.29 Wald Test of rho=0: chi2(1)=9.732, Prob> chi2 =0.0018. ***, **, * 1%, 5%,10% 25