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1

2 1 th 1 th Dec

3 1 th 1 th Dec EITC 2

4 1 th 1 th Dec

5 1 th 1 th Dec

6 1 th 1 th Dec

7 1 th 1 th Dec

8 1 th 1 th Dec

9 1 th 1 th Dec

10 1 th 1 th Dec

11 1 th 1 th Dec H L T C P W U ( C, L) T L H OA OB AB ( T L) W = PC TW W W C = L OAB P P P t W ( 1 t) OAC P AC E F E G G F 10

12 1 th 1 th Dec

13 1 th 1 th Dec

14 1 th 1 th Dec

15 1 th 1 th Dec

16 1 th 1 th Dec

17 1 th 1 th Dec

18 1 th 1 th Dec

19 1 th 1 th Dec

20 1 th 1 th Dec

21 1 th 1 th Dec

22 1 th 1 th Dec :3,590,000 2 :3,590,0014,520,000:4,520,0015,210,000 4 :5,210, ,000 5 :5930,0016,640,000 6 : ,470,000 7 :7,470,001 8,400, ,400,0019,580,000 9 :95,800,00111,520, :11,520,001 21

23 1 th 1 th Dec u t u t E [ u u t t 1 ] 0 u = ρ u t + ε 1 t ε t σ 2 2 E[ ε t ] = 0 E [ ε 2 ] t = σ E[ ε tε s ] = 0 2 u u t u t 1 ρσ ρ u x 22

24 1 th 1 th Dec.2006 x j 2 2 E u ] = σ u [ j j x 23

25 1 th 1 th Dec.2006 log( LPR) = α 0 + α1 log( UNE) + α 2 log( RW ) + α 3DUMMY1+ α 4DUMMY 2 LPR UNE RW DUMMY1 DUMMY2 24

26 1 th 1 th Dec

27 1 th 1 th Dec

28 1 th 1 th Dec.2006 t

29 1 th 1 th Dec.2006 t 28

30 1 th 1 th Dec

31 1 th 1 th Dec EITC t

32 1 th 1 th Dec

33 1 th 1 th Dec ,000 3,299, ,999, t 32

34 1 th 1 th Dec

35 1 th 1 th Dec

36 1 th 1 th Dec

37 1 th 1 th Dec

38 1 th 1 th Dec

all.dvi

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