国際関係論 - 国内政治と国際政治
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1 July 19, 2018 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
2 Agenda (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
3 ( ) ( ) q, 1 q ( ) 1 Reject Propose x S 1 S 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c 2 ( ) 0 Accept x, 1 x ( ) 2 S 2 S q p 2 c 2, q p 1 + c 2 : S q < p 2 c 2, q > p 1 + c 2 : S 2 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
4 3 1 (information/informational problem) 2 (commitment problem) 3 (issue individuality) ( ) ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
5 3 1 (information/informational problem) 2 (commitment problem) 3 (issue individuality) 3 ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
6 (unitary actor assumption) ( ) (national interest) (particular interest) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
7 S 1 0 S 1 ( ) S 1 S 2 S ( two-level game, Putnum 1988) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
8 ( 2008[1960]: 28 29) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
9 (diversionary war) (FLS, ) = ( ) (diversionary incentives) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
10 The Rally Effect and the Diversionary Incentive Source: FLS, 137 (rally-round-the-flag effect) ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
11 S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p+r 1 c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 S 1 (gambling for resurrection) ( ) ( ) p 1 c 1 p 1 + r 1 c 1 (r 1 > 0) (= ) ( ) r 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
12 (1982) ( ) (1998) ( ) C (2008) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
13 ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
14 S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p+r 1 c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 1: S 1 p 1 + r 1 c 1, r 1 > 0 S 1 r 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
15 The Political Costs of War 2: Source: FLS, 141 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
16 (diversionary war) (FLS, ) = ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
17 Source: FLS, 129 ( ) (Eisenhower) (Hobson) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
18 S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 S (e.g., ) = ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
19 (diversionary war) (FLS, ) ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
20 (democratic peace) (1) (2) (2a) ( ) IR (empirical law) (Levy, 1988) M. Doyle, B. Russet BdM, J. D. Fearon, K. N. Schultz (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
21 ( ) ( ) [ ] (1985[1795]: 32 33) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
22 ( ) 2, Source: Bueno de Mesquita (2010: 182) (empirical law) (Levy, 1988) 200 WWII (robust) (correlates of war) (control) (data triangulation) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
23 (B. ) FLS (selectorate) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
24 (BdM) (1991) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
25 p 1 c A 1 > p 1 c D 1 (tempting) ( ) Yours is a society which cannot accept 10,000 dead in one battle (Saddam Hussein) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
26 (transparency) = (e.g., S 1 ) ( ) = ( ) (e.g., S 2) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
27 ( ) ( ) Tying-hands signal Schelling ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
28 ( ) q, 1 q ( ) 1 Reject S 1 Propose x S L 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c L 2 ( ) Choose c L 2 (S 2 is Wolf ) l 0 Accept N x, 1 x ( ) q, 1 q ( ) Choose c H 2 (S 2 is Sheep) 1 l S 1 1 Propose x Reject S H 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c H 2 ( ) 0 Accept x, 1 x ( ) Note: p 2 = 1 p 1. N (nature), (information set) Kydd. International Relations Theory, Chap. 6 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
29 ( ) S L 2 S 1 S H 2 S k 2 S L 2 S 1 0 q0 p 1 c 1 q 1 p 1 p 1 + c L q 2 q 2 p 1 + c H 2 3 S2 H 1 S L 2 S H 2 S 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
30 Tying-Hands ( ) v 1, 0 ( ) m 1, v 2 ( ) Don t challenge Don t fight Send signal m S 1 S 2 Challenge S 1 Fight p 1v 1 c 1, p 2v 2 c 2 ( ) m 1 S 1 Don t fight ( ) ( ) m 1 S 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
31 [ ] ( 2008[1960]: 28 29) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
32 (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
33 Conventional wisdom ( ) Remaining puzzles ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
34 ( ) ( ) FLS ( ) 4 5 ( ) : Brett Ashley Leeds Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties International Organization 57(4): James D. Morrow Alliances: Why Write Them Down? Annual Review of Political Science 3: , 5, 8 Glenn H. Snyder The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics World Politics 36(4): (Univ Toyama) July 19, / 34
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