Nomura Weekly CONTENTS 12/3 2018 Vol.17 2018 11 30 1. 2.2 2000 3. FRB 4.
1 2018 12 3 2.1 5.1 6.8 6.2 3.2 2.7-4.7 0.2 5.2 4.6 2.6 3.0 5.0 3.2 3.2 5.3 4.6-6.0-4.0-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 () () (%) GDP 25GDP7 2 11-12 114 e- 114 12 10 19 NRF( ) 11-124.3 4.8 11 11 2135( 3 5000) 26.9 11-12 () 2018NRF NRF () NRF
2 2018 12 3 ( ) 2018 11 30 () 3 11 ISM 511 ISM 711 5 FRB 2018/19 12 7 3 7-9 6 OPEC ( ) 12/1 ( G20 ) ( G20 ) 2 (UAE) 3 7-9(8:50) :() +5.0(4-6 :+14.0 ) 11 (14:00) 11 ( 3:00) 11 ISM (24:00) :58.0 (10 :57.7) 10 (24:00) : +0.4(9 :0.0 ) 11(GM)( 5:00 ) (UAE) 24 (COP24)( 14 ) EU (4 ) 11PMI(10:45) :50.1 (10 :50.1) 4 10(12:35) 11(15:00 ) (12:30) :()1.50(:1.50 ) ()7-9GDP(18:30) : +0.5(4-6 :+0.4 ) 5 (10:30) 11 PMI(9:30) : - (10 :52.4) FRB( 0:15) ( 4:00) 11 ADP(22:15) : +20.0 (10 :+22.7) 11 ISM(24:00) :59.5 (10 :60.3) (EIA)(11/30)( 0:30) () (18:00) :(RBI )6.50(:6.50 ) (24:00) :()1.75(:1.75 ) 7-9GDP(9:30) : +0.6(4-6 :+0.9 ) 11PMI(10:45) :50.9 (10 :50.8) ()10 (19:00) : +0.3(9 :0.0 ) 6 ( 2:15) 10 (22:30) :()549(9 :540 ) (12/1)(22:30) 10(24:00) : -2.0(9 :+0.7 ) () OPEC() 10(16:00) : -0.5(9 :+0.3 ) 7 10(8:30) :() +1.4(9 :-1.6 ) 10 (9:00) :() +1.1(9 :+0.8 ) 10 (14:00) 2019 FRB( 2:00) 11 (22:30) :() +20.5 (10 :+25.0) :3.7(10 :3.7 ) :() +3.2(10 :+3.1 ) 12 ( 24:00) :97.0 (11 :97.5) 10( 5:00) (CDU) 10(16:00) : +0.3(9 :+0.2 ) ()7-9GDP (19:00) : +0.2(2 :+0.24-6 :+0.4 ) 8 11 12 (10 ) 7-9GDP(2)(10 ) 12(DI)(14 ) (19 ) (19-20 ) (TPP)11 TPP11 (30 ) 2019() ( 115 2)(13 14 ) FOMC(18-19 ) 7-9GDP (21 ) ()(31 ) EU( 13-14 ) (13 ) ()ECB(13 ) EU(25 ) () (12 9 )
2018 12 3 2018 11 2329 NASDAQ NY S&P500 SENSEX TOP40 RTS FTSE MIB ISTN100 WTI H TOPIX REIT FTSE100 CAC40 DAX SET ASX200 REIT NY -0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.4 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.8 4.3-2 0 2 4 6 () 4.7 4.6 3.8 3.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0 2 4 6-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.8 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7-4 -2 0 2 4 6 NZ 2 2000-0.2 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1-10 -5 0 5 10.09 0.19 9.09 0.01 2.81-0.00 3.03-0.01 1.37-0.01 0.08-0.02 0.32-0.02 2.85-0.02 8.89-0.04 2.61-0.05 7.61-0.10 16.48-0.38 FRB 1 2 IT ( ) S&P Global 1200 (GICS11) TOPIX17 ( ) 2018 11 29 () 3 25000 24000 23000 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 17000 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2018/11/29 22262 113.48 0.082 17.2/2 0.116 6/20 20230 18335 17.4/14 5/10 114.29 108.58 4/14 10 0.008 4/17 7/6 0.104 2018 11 29 () 19274 9/8 107.83 9/8-0.009 9/4 11/1 114.18 18.1/23 24124 20617 3/23 104.73 18.3/23 18.2/1 0.100 5/21 23002 0.024 3/23 21546 7/5 7/17 112.88 110.07 8/20 10/2 24270 8/1 0.131 0.025 7/2-0.05 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 11/8 22486 21149 10/29 10/3 114.53 10/9 0.161 120 0.082 11/29 115 110 105 100 FRB 2 2000 11 (7 ) 11 ISM (3 ) 11 ISM (5 ) ( )
2018 12 3 FRB 27000 26000 25000 24000 23000 22000 21000 20000 19000 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 NY 25338 NASDAQ 7273 3.029 3/1 21115 19732 17.1/19 2018/11/29 20404 4/19 5805 17.4/13 5383 17.3/13 16.12/30 2.626 NY NASDAQ 10 2.039 9/7 18.1/26 26616 2/26 25709 23860 2/8 23533 3/23 18.1/26 7505 6777 2/8 3/12 7588 18.2/21 2.950 6870 4/2 2.730 4/2 6/12 25320 5/17 3.111 2.781 5/29 24117 6/27 0.5 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 10/3 26828 11/8 26191 8/29 8109 2.810 8/24 24442 24285 10/29 11/23 11/7 7570 7050 6908 10/29 11/20 11/8 3.237 FF2018 11 29 () 8500 2.25 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 VIX 20 11 ISM (3 5 ) 12 (7 ) FRB (5 ) (5 ) 11(7 ) FRB ( ) 2017 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 2018/11/30 5.60 8.30 16.34 1.62 0.79 1.71 29.44 21.92 40 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2018 11 30 8 100 () 1 (11 30 ) (12 4 ) 7-9GDP 11(3 ) (7 ) 10 (11 30 ) 13 ( ) 4
2018 12 3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 ( 1,250) ( 650) ( 830) ( 1,460) 3,000 ()2025 2025 2018 112025( ) 2005 1970 55 2 2,800 3,000 2005 (2,200) 5 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 () () 2005 60 55 50 45 () 14% 6% (DI) 2004 1 2006 4 (2005 3 25 9 25 ) () () 80% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 40 2004/1 2004/7 2005/1 2005/7 2006/1 ( / ) 1,250 () JRMICE 5,000 1 MICE(Meeting Incentive Convention Exhibition) 6 10 100 (2005 6 8 ) 2025
2018 12 3 ( 1)( 2)H2O ( 3)HD () 1700 1600 (1802) 13 17.11/9 1609 1500 26 1400 52 1300 1200 15.11/26 1197 1100 1000 900 800 911 16.8/19 700 600 2015 2016 2017 2018 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 (9045) 15.8/11 4360 13 26 52 3170 17.11/27 2000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 11 29 () 952 18.10/26 18.11/26 4805 900 800 700 600 (1893) 13 26 52 15.8/18 628 10/31 634 18.1/23 888 500 500 17.2/13 400 412 16.1/21 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 7000 (9065) 6500 13 6000 26 5500 52 5000 4500 4000 15.8/5 3570 3500 3000 2500 2000 2235 1500 16.4/8 2015 2016 2017 2018 625 9/4 18.10/10 6550 ( ) 6
2018 12 3 TOPIX500( / ) Q1 Q4 14 (ADR GDR ) (US: LN: FP: GY:SM: IM: NA: BB: SW:SS: NO:FH: DC:ID: HK:)2018 11 30 () () 7
2018 12 3 ECB FRB IT FRB 11 14 12 18 19FOMC 2019 (11 22 ) 25 11 2227 1025 (27 :21824 ) (75132652) 11 8 (22583 22500 16 24 18 (2018 12 3) (2018 11 30 ) LLC ( ILLC ) () 8
2018 12 3 ROE 1 Buy 12 2 Neutral 12 3 Reduce Suspended Not rated 12 http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal MSCI Large Cap Bullish Neutral Bearish Not rated N/A 12 12 12 S&P500STOXX 600MSCI 12 LLC LLC Instinet, LLC100(Instinet. Incorporated NSC plcniplcnsi LLCILLC 1%12 http://www.nomuraholdings.com/jp/report/ 9
2018 12 3 Morningstar Rating 2004 2 1 5 54 2 1 5 Economic moat Morningstar Inc. 1984 70 80 Morningstar Japan K.K.1998 3 2000 6 1999 2003 11 Under Review Suspension Nomura21 Global Nomura21 Global Nomura21 Global Nomura21 Global () Nomura21 Global REIT ETF ETN 2017 4 4025 Nomura21 Global 11 (Morningstar Inc.) 2003 11 35 Nomura21 Global GICS MSCIGlobal Industry Classification Standard=GICS 112468 157 2018 10 1 1 13 GICS Nomura21 Global (GICS ) 10
2018 12 3 ( 1.404 (20 2,808 ) () () ) (REIT ETF ETN) 1.404%(202,808 ) ( ) ( ) 1.026%( 757,668 ) ( ) ( 1.404%(202,808 )) 30 ( 33 )303.3 ( 3 ) 5.4 ()2.0 ()(5.4 ()) 謬 11