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SMBCChinaMonthly 第 60 号 (2010 年 6 月 ) 当レポートに掲載されているあらゆる内容の無断転載 複製を禁じます 当レポートは単に情報提供を目的に作成されており その正確性を当行及び情報提供元が保証するものではなく また掲載された内容は経済情勢等の変化により変更される事があります 掲載情報は利用者の責任と判断でご利用頂き また個別の案件につきましては法律 会計 税務等の各方面の専門家にご相談下さるようお願い致します 万一 利用者が当情報の利用に関して損害を被った場合 当行及び情報提供元はその原因の如何を問わず賠償の責を負いません -2-
1 100 2 1 1 2 1 20 1 800 2 2-3 -
1 W 1020 5 2530 1980 2000-4 -
1 2 2010 3 5 10 17.02008 11 70 2009 6 4 12.82005 7 2008 3 1 10 4 8 4 17 2 2 4050 3 2 4 55.7 14 50 5 10 4 5 4 2.82008 10 4.0 2009 20.6 1 4,240-5 -
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200 34 100 17 10 1.7 : 234 200 34 100 117 17 1.7 1.7 18.7 18.7 : 34 (20017%) 17 (10017%) 1.7 (1017%) 15.3 (17-1.7) 18.7 (34-15.3) - 9 -
21 2004 3 1 12 (1) (2) (3) 1 21 2004 3 1 3 1 2 2010 2 1 [2010]35 http://www.js.lss.gov.cn/zcfg/ldzjfg/201001/t20100123_59828.htm http://www.suzhou.gov.cn/newssz/sznews/2010/1/24/sznews-10-15-39-1486.shtml 28 1995 1 1 49 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 2 1 1 1-10 -
3 65 2008 1 1 85 50 100 (2) 13 5 [1994]481 1995 1 1 4 100 25 4 3 201021 2010 3 28 12333 4 25 85-11 -
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CNY - SMBC May 2010 1USD=CNY 100JPY=CNY 1CNY=JPY May-21 6.8279 End of Quarter - Quarterly Range 7.5870 E of Q - Quarterly Range 13.18 E of Q - Quarterly Range 5.31% End of Quarter SMBC Bloomberg SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC Bloomberg 10Q2 6.8100 6.8000 6.8040 6.8970 7.2830 7.0300 7.7110 13.70 12.90 14.20 5.31% 5.31% 10Q3 6.7590 6.7100 6.7530 6.8790 7.1150 6.8670 7.5330 14.10 13.30 14.60 5.58% 5.58% 10Q4 6.7090 6.6000 6.7030 6.8270 6.7090 6.4760 7.1870 14.90 14.10 15.40 5.85% 5.85% 11Q1 6.6590 6.4900 6.6530 6.7770 6.3420 6.1210 6.7150 15.80 14.90 16.40 6.12% 5.85% 11Q2 6.6090-6.6030 6.7260 6.1770 5.9620 6.5400 16.20 15.30 16.80 6.12% 5.85% 11Q3 6.5600-6.5540 6.6760 6.0180 5.8090 6.3720 16.60 15.70 17.20 6.12% 6.12% Source: Bloomberg, SMBC Singapore 6.850 8.4 8.0 6.848 8.3 7.9 6.846 8.2 6.844 8.1 7.8 6.842 8.0 7.7 6.840 7.9 7.6 6.838 7.8 7.5 6.836 7.7 6.834 7.6 7.4 6.832 7.5 7.3 6.830 7.4 7.2 6.828 7.3 6.826 7.2 7.1 6.824 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.822 6.9 6.820 6.8 6.8 6.818 6.7 6.7 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 J FMA M J J A SO ND J FMA M Source: Bloomberg, CFETS Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloom berg 3600 6000 2.00% 3400 5500 1.95% 1.90% 5000 1.85% 3200 4500 1.80% 1.75% 3000 4000 1.70% 2800 3500 1.65% 1.60% 2600 3000 1.55% 1.50% 2500 2400 1.45% 2000 1.40% 2200 1.35% 1500 1.30% 2000 1000 1.25% 1.20% 1800 500 1.15% JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 120 122 118 120 116 118 114 116 114 112 112 110 110 108 108 106 106 104 104 102 102 100 100 98 98 96 96 94 94 92 92 90 88 90 86 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase -17-
TWD - SMBC May 2010 1USD=TWD 100JPY=TWD 1TWD=JPY May-21 32.18 End of Quarter - Quarterly Range 35.69 E of Q - Quarterly Range 2.8050 E of Q - Quarterly Range 1.250% End of Quarter SMBC Bloomberg SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC Bloomberg 10Q2 31.80 31.00 31.50 32.70 34.00 33.00 36.20 2.9400 2.7610 3.0250 1.250% 1.250% 10Q3 32.50 30.80 31.50 33.40 34.20 33.20 36.40 2.9230 2.7450 3.0080 1.500% 1.500% 10Q4 33.30 30.50 32.20 34.30 33.30 32.40 35.50 3.0030 2.8200 3.0900 1.750% 1.500% 11Q1 33.50 30.00 33.20 34.50 31.90 31.00 34.00 3.1340 2.9430 3.2250 2.000% 1.750% 11Q2 33.70-33.40 34.70 31.50 30.60 33.60 3.1750 2.9820 3.2670 2.125% 1.750% 11Q3 33.90-33.60 34.90 31.10 30.20 33.10 3.2150 3.0190 3.3080 2.125% 2.250% Source: Bloomberg, SMBC Singapore 35.4 35.5 38.5 35.2 35.0 35.0 38.0 34.8 34.6 34.5 37.5 34.4 34.2 34.0 37.0 34.0 36.5 33.8 33.5 33.6 36.0 33.4 33.0 33.2 35.5 33.0 32.5 35.0 32.8 32.6 32.0 34.5 32.4 32.2 31.5 34.0 32.0 31.8 31.0 33.5 31.6 31.4 30.5 33.0 31.2 30.0 32.5 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JFMAMJ JASONDJFMAM Source: Bloomberg, Taipei Forex Inc. Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloom berg 102 106 101 100 104 35.64%2 99 102 98 100 5.65%8 97 98 96 96 6.04%8 95 94 94 93 92 92 90 91 88 90 86 46 89 84 88 82 87 80 86 85 78 84 76 83 74 14 82 72 81 70 51.2% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 26.9% Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase 8500 10000 9500 8000 9000 7500 8500 8000 7000 7500 6500 7000 6000 6500 6000 5500 5500 5000 5000 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 1.15% 1.10% 1.05% 1.00% 0.95% 0.90% 0.85% 0.80% 0.75% 0.70% 0.65% 0.60% 0.55% 0.50% 0.45% 0.40% -18-
HKD - SMBC May 2010 1GDP 1USD=HKD 100JPY=HKD 1HKD=JPY May-21 7.8034 End of Quarter - Quarterly Range 8.6706 E of Q - Quarterly Range 11.53 E of Q - Quarterly Range 0.50% End of Quarter SMBC Bloomberg SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC SMBC Bloomberg 10Q2 7.8000 7.7600 7.7500 7.8500 8.3420 8.0480 8.8350 12.00 11.30 12.40 0.50% - 10Q3 7.8000 7.7600 7.7500 7.8500 8.2110 7.9220 8.6960 12.20 11.50 12.70 1.00% - 10Q4 7.8000 7.7500 7.7500 7.8500 7.8000 7.5250 8.2610 12.80 12.10 13.30 1.25% - 11Q1 7.8000 7.7500 7.7500 7.8500 7.4290 7.1670 7.8680 13.50 12.80 14.00 1.75% - 11Q2 7.8000-7.7500 7.8500 7.2900 7.0330 7.7210 13.70 12.90 14.20 2.25% - 11Q3 7.8000-7.7500 7.8500 7.1560 6.9040 7.5790 14.00 13.20 14.50 2.50% - Source: Bloomberg, SMBC Singapore JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM Source: Bloomberg 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloom berg 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase 7.805 7.800 7.795 7.790 7.785 7.780 7.775 7.770 7.765 7.760 7.755 7.750 7.745 24000 30000 23000 28000 22000 26000 21000 24000 20000 19000 22000 18000 20000 17000 18000 16000 16000 15000 14000 14000 13000 12000 12000 10000 11000 8000 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAM Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase -19-7.84 7.83 7.82 7.81 7.80 7.79 7.78 7.77 7.76 7.75 7.74 7.73 7.72 7.71 7.70 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 J FMA M J J A SO ND J FMA M 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 20101GDP 2.4%10.0% +2.0%4 2.4% 2.4%4.4% 09Q2+4.1%Q3+0.4%Q4+2.0% 8.0%9.5%