A Tract on Monetary Reform *1 * 2 2014 6 17 *1 *2 c 2014 4.0 (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
i J M 1923 10
iii
1 1 1914 22 19 1 13 9 1.1 1914 1920 1920
2 1 1.1 1913 (1) (2) (3) 1913 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100.. 1914 100 102 96 106 98 100 95 116 100 1915 127 140 133 142 101 109 97 145 112 1916 160 189 201 153 127 134 117 185 128 1917 206 262 299 179 177 175 149 244 147 1918 227 340 409 217 194 205 196 339 180 1919 242 357 364 415 206 216 239 330 198 1920 295 510 624 1,486 226 250 260 347 204 1921 182 345 577 1,911 147 182 200 211 181 1922 159 327 562 34,182 149 165 196 162 180 1923* 159 411 582 765,000 157 167 192 166 179 (1) (2) 1919 Statist Economist, Statist, (3) ( ) * 9 1.1
1.1 3 1.1.1 19 (1) (2) (3) 18 19 20
4 1 *1 * 2 19 1914 *1 12 1850 *2 1923
1.1 5 6 / 19 25 70 1896 1826 1841 1855 1862 1867 1871 1915 1844 1881 1914 1844 1881 1914 100 1826 30 130 70 19 3% ) *3 1826 1896 70 79 109 1889 3% 2.75% 1903 2.5% 50 90 1848 *3 4.5% 3% 3% 66 100
6 1 5 90 60 1897 19 19 1890 12 11 1896 1896 1896 1914 1880 1840 1914 1920 1914 7.5% 1921 30% *4 1914 1.2 1896-97 60 1897 1922 1914 1896 19 *4 1896
1.1 7 1.2 (1) 1815 61 59 92 56 1826 85 90 108 92 1842 85 90 122 104 1869 87 89 127 111 1883 104 108 138 144 1896 139 145 150 208 1914 100 100 100 100 1920 34 26 64 22 1921 53 39 56 34 1922 62 50 76 47 (1) 3 2.5% 1920 19
8 1 1.1.2 1919 4 1920 3 Statist 1.3 1.3 Stasis 1919 4 100 10 127 5 108 11 131 6 112 12 135 7 117 1920 1 142 8 120 2 150 9 121 3 146 46 7 30-40
1.1 9 5% 100 90 94.5 5 5.5 110 5 15.5 7 *5 *5
10 1 1922 8 22 1923 24 30 108 3 1923 7 9 100 1921 30 40 1
1.1 11 1920 1.1.3
12 1 1921-22 1923
1.2 13 25 2.5 *6 19 1.2 *6 1000
14 1 *7 *7
1.2 15 1
16 1
17 2 2.1 *1 900 3,600 *2 300 1200 1200 3,600 4 3 900 3,600 2,700 300 900 900 *1 1 *2
18 2 900 25 25 900 3600 400 1,600 3 2.25 400 900 25 (1) (2)
2.1 19 *3 (3) 3600 2000 1923 / ( 1921 12 ) 1 1 1922 12 1920 7 1922 4 0.73 0.67 0.5 *3
20 2 1 100 1 0.5 2 4 1 =240 1.7 )
2.1 21 (23 ) 2.1 (1/3) 1 (10 ) (10 ) 1920 12 81 17 4.8 1921 12 122 46 2.7 1922 3 140 65 2.2 1922 6 180 90 2.0 1922 9 331 349 0.9 1922 12 1,293 1,778 0.7 1923 2 2,266 11,200 0.2 1923 3 4,956 4,950 1.0 1923 6 17,000 45,000 0.4 1923 8 116,000 1,000,000 0.116 2.2 (2/3) 1 (10 ) (10 ) 1920 6 17 27 620 1920 12 30 70 430 1921 12 174 533 326 1922 3 304 1,328 229 1922 6 550 2,911 189 1922 9 2,278 14,473 157 1922 12 4,080 14,473 282 1923 3 4,238 14,363 295 1923 8 5,557 14,369 387 1920 12
22 2 2.3 (3/3) 1 (10 ) (*1) (10 ) 1919 1 61 103 592 1920 1 225 1,670 134 1921 1 1,169 26,000 45 1922 1 17,539 172,000 102(*2) 1922 3 48,535 1,060,000 46 1922 5 145,635 3,800,000 38(*3) 1922 6 320,497 4,102,000 78 1922 10 815,486 6,964,000 117 1923 1 2,138,711 15,790,000 135 1923 6 8,050,000 97,690,000 82(*4) *1 1923 *2 (NEP) *3 *4 (23 ) 1923 6 1920 12 200 2500 1920 6 1920 12 1922 9 1920 12 1923 5 1919 1 1923 *4 1923 2 *4 60 3 5
2.1 23 1923 2 / 20 1 1922 10 1922 9 2.5 1922 *5 400 300 400 100 1922 4-1923 4 1500 *6 1922 12 *5 100 *6 1918 5.25 1919 3.8 1920 1.86 1921 1.43 1922 1-3 0.58 1.3
24 2 1923 8 1600 1600 *7 1923 2500 1922 5 400 / 1923 8 1922 7500 1 5 1920 12 2.4 (21 ) 1922 1 1922 6 (1923) (23 ) 1923 3 1923 2 5 10 1923 5 6 200 300 *7 1923 3 15 ch.1= 1.07 1923 4 17 ch.1= 1.05 1923 6 15 ch.1= 0.94 1923 7 27 ch.1= 1.05
2.1 25 2 *8 400 300 18 *8 1923 8
26 2 2.2 vs 50 100
2.2 vs 27 1
28 2 *9 6 10 0.3-0.5 80 100 *9 6 3
2.2 vs 29 1922 2500 1923 3 180 1923 * 10 230 1923 120 1923 30 100 1922 1923 *10 M.
31 3 *1 3.1 *2 60 *1 *2
32 3 k n p p n = pk k n p / / k k (k ) r n = p(k + rk ). k, k, r n p k k r (n) (p) *3 k k *3 (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1917 11 ) ( Money, Credit, and Commerce I. iv.)
3.1 33 50 1 * 4 k, r, k n n n k, r, k p 10 n p 10 k, r, k n k k r *4 Money, Credit, and Commerce I. iv. 3. 50 1 4 1 20 1 (A.D. 1755) 9 1 3 1 15
34 3 1900 1914 n r p n p n p 1 2 p n n k k r p n n / r / k k n r k k / / 1920 10 1922 10 1922 10 100
3.1 35 *5 ) 1920 10 150 5.85 20 1922 10 100 5.04 17 r 12 *6 1920 10 n = 585 p = 1.5 k = 230 k = 1333 1922 10 n = 504 p = 1 k = 300 k = 1700 k 230 300 k 1333 1700 1920 1922 23/30 1922 1333/1700 k k k k 1920 30 k k (21, 22 ) 4 5 n r 3 k k k k n r k k k k k k k r r n r n r n *5 5 *6 585 = 1.5(230 + 1333 0.12) 504 = 1(300 + 1700 0.12)
36 3 n r r n *7 n r k k k k n r p n r k k n r n r k k k k n r 5 3.2 1 o (1) (2) (3) (4) (1), (2), (3) *7
3.2 37 1913 1913 1 2 1913 1 2.43 4.86 = 1 4 = 1 4.86 2 2.43 = 4 1913 1913
38 3 *8 1913 (FRB) 1913 3.1 *8 1914 p.154.
3.2 39 3.1 1913 100 100 100 1922 7 128 165 165 1923 4 156 186 169 1923 7 141 170 159 1913 1923 1923 /
40 3 1913 1923 100 155 100 160 2 8 10 10 * 9 (x) 167 (y) 152 155 (x ) 148 (y ) 163 160 1913 1923 ( 160 163 155 =)103 1913 ( 167 = 148 152 =)97 1913 1919 1913 *9 10x = 11y 8y + 2x = 1550 11x = 10y 8y + 2x = 1600
3.2 41 / 1913 1913 1919 9-11 1920 3-4 1921 4 1921 9 1922 1-6 1923 2-6 1913 1-2.5 * 10 3.1 / PPP 1919 1920 1921 1922 *10 Statist Economist
42 3 3.2 (1913 ) *1 *2 *3 ( ) 1919/8 242 216 89.3 87.6 9 245 210 85.7 85.8 10 252 211 83.7 85.9 11 259 217 83.8 84.3 12 273 223 81.7 78.4 1920/1 289 233 81.0 75.6 2 303 232 76.6 69.5 3 310 234 75.6 76.2 4 306 245 80.1 80.6 5 305 247 81.0 79.0 6 291 243 83.5 81.1 7 293 241 82.3 79.4 8 288 231 80.2 74.2 9 284 226 79.6 72.2 10 266 211 79.3 71.4 11 246 196 79.7 70.7 12 220 179 81.4 71.4 1921/1 209 170 81.4 76.7 2 192 160 83.3 79.6 3 189 155 82.0 80.3 4 183 148 80.9 80.7 5 182 145 79.7 81.5 6 179 142 79.3 78.0 7 178 141 79.2 74.8 8 179 142 79.3 75.1 9 183 141 77 76.5 10 170 142 83.5 79.5 11 166 141 84.9 81.5 12 162 140 86.4 85.3 1922/1 159 138 86.8 86.8 2 158 141 89.1 89.6 3 160 142 88.7 89.9 4 159 143 89.9 90.7 5 162 148 91.4 91.4 6 163 150 92.0 91.5 7 163 155 95.1 91.4 8 158 155 98.1 91.7 9 156 153 98.1 91.1 10 158 154 97.4 91.2 11 159 156 98.1 92.0 12 158 156 98.7 94.6 1923/1 160 156 97.5 95.7 2 163 157 96.3 96.2 3 163 159 97.5 96.5 4 165 159 96.4 95.7 5 164 156 95.1 95.0 6 160 153 95.6 94.8 *1 Economist *2 *3 Economist
3.2 43 3.3 (1913 ) *1 ( ) ( ) 1919 Aug. 62 66 1921 Aug. 43 40 Sept. 58 61 Sept. 41 38 Oct. 65 60 Oct. 43 38 Nov. 53 55 Nov. 42 37 Dec. 52 48 Dec. 43 40 1920 Jan 48 44 1922 Jan. 44 42 Feb. 44 36 Feb. 46 45 March. 42 37 March. 46 47 April 41 32 April 46 48 May 45 35 May 44 47 June 49 41 June 46 45 July 48 42 July 48 43 Aug. 46 37 Aug. 47 41 Sept. 43 35 Sept. 46 40 Oct. 42 34 Oct. 46 38 Nov. 43 31 Nov, 44 35 Dec. 41 30 Dec. 43 37 1921 Jan. 42 33 1923 Jan. 40 34 Feb. 42 37 Feb. 37 32 March. 43 36 March. 37 33 April 43 37 April 38 35 May 44 43 May 38 34 June 44 42 June 37 33 July 43 40 *1 3.4 (1913 ) *1 ( ) ( ) 1919 Aug. 59 56 1921 Aug. 26 22 Sept. 56 53 Sept. 24 22 Oct. 54 51 Oct. 24 20 Nov. 50 44 Nov. 24 21 Dec. 49 40 Dec. 23 23 1920 Jan 46 37 1922 Jan. 24 23 Feb. 42 29 Feb. 25 25 March. 38 28 March. 27 26 April 36 23 April 27 28 May 38 27 May 28 27 June 40 31 June 28 26 July 39 30 July 28 24 Aug. 37 25 Aug. 27 23 Sept. 34 23 Sept. 26 22 Oct. 32 20 Oct. 26 22 Nov. 30 19 Nov, 26 23 Dec. 28 18 Dec. 27 26 1921 Jan. 26 18 1923 Jan. 27 26 Feb. 26 19 Feb. 27 25 March. 26 20 March. 27 25 April 25 24 April 27 26 May 27 27 May 27 25 June 28 26 June 26 24 July 27 24 *1
44 3 3.2 / PPP 3.3 / PPP 10 * 11 1913 *11 39 10
3.3 45 10-20 3.3 * 12 * 13 *12 R. Analyst 1922 6 12 *13 4 1 2 10 4 (
46 3 1901-1913 1 20 11 1 4 / 1 50 3
3.3 47 1919 1922 1923 1919 4 3.5 (%) 8-7 1919-1920 69 88 31 66 22 56 1920-1921 69 82 30 45 18 29 1921-1922 73 92 37 48 20 28 1922-1923 90 97 29 41 20 27 4 5 10 12 3 6 8 11 46 )
48 3 / 3.4
3.4 49 1920 1921 1922 1923 6 (50, 51 ) 1920 1920-21 1 1 2 1920 11 6 1922 1923 1920 1921 2 1 2 1921 1922 1 2 2 1 2 3 5 1922
50 3 3.6 *1 1920 1 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) January 3.79 + 3 8 +1.2 40.90 +6 +1.7 February 3.48 7 8 + 1 4 +0.9 46.90 +4 +1.0 March 3.41 3 8 + 1 4 +0.9 48.55 +3 +.7 April 3.90 3 4 + 3 8 +1.2 57.80 +3 +.6 May 3.82 7 8 + 1 2 +1.6 64.04 +I +.18 June 3.89 15 16 + 3 8 +1.2 50.45 5 1.2 July 3.96 1 8 + 5 8 +1.9 47.05 10 2.8 August 3.67 + 1 2 +1.6 49.00 10 2.4 September 3.56 7 8 + 1 2 +1.7 51.22 1 2 5 1.2 October 3.48 3 16 + 1 2 +1.7 52.10 10 2.3 November 3.44 3 8 +1 5 8 +5.7 54.45 15 3.3 December 3.49 + 1 2 +1.7 57.45 15 3.2 1921 January 3.58 3 8 + 3 8 +1.3 61.07 1 2 30 5.9 February 3.84 3 4 +1 +3.1 54.50 20 4.4 March 3.88 3 8 + 7 8 +2.7 54.40 27 5.9 April 3.92 + 3 8 +1.1 55.37 1 2 15 3.3 May 3.98 + 1 2 +1.5 50.22 1 2 12 2.9 June 3.90 5 8 + 3 4 +2.3 46.35 10 2.6 July 3.71 15 16 + 5 8 +2.0 46.72 1 2 10 2.6 August 3.56 3 8 + 1 2 +1.7 46.77 1 2 +2 +.5 September 3.71 5 8 + 3 8 +1.2 48.68 1 2 +3 +.7 October 3.76 1 8 + 1 2 +1.6 52.27 1 2 +1 +.2 November 3.92 1 16 + 7 8 +2.7 53.44 +4 +.9 December 4.08 5 16 + 3 8 +1.1 54.24 +2 +.4 1922 January 4.20 1 8 + 1 8 +.4 52.32 1 2 par... February 4.30 1 2 par... 51.62 1 2... March 4.42... 48.45... April 4.39... 48.15 1.25 May 4.44 1 2... 48.47 +1 +.25 June 4.46 3 4 + 3 16 +.5 49.00 +2 +.49 July 4.44 3 4 + 1 16 +.17 56.20 +8 +1.8 August 4.45 1 4 + 3 16 +.5 54.10 +10 +2.21 September 4.46 + 3 8 +1 57.40 +3 +.63 October 4.42 + 1 4 +.68 58.25 +3 +.62 November 4.46 1 2 + 5 8 +1.68 64.65 +14 +2.59 December 4.51 3 4 +1 +2.65 64.30 +8 +1.49 1923 January 4.64 3 4 +1 1 4 +3.23 66.40 +5 +.9 February 4.67 + 7 8 +2.25 75.50 +16 +2.54 March 4.70 5 8 +1 +2.55 77.50 +11 +1.70 April 4.66 7 8 + 3 4 +1.93 70.40 +5 +.85 May 4.62 1 2 + 15 16 +2.43 69.35 +5 +.86 June 4.62 3 4 + 7 8 +2.27 71.60 +5 +.84 July 4.56 1 2 + 1 2 +1.31 78.35 +4 +.61 August 4.57 + 1 4 +0.66 79.20 +9 +.60 *1 1920 1 1921
3.4 51 3.7 1920 1 1 January 50 1 8 3.0 187 February 55 1 8 2.7 305 March 62 3 4 1 4 4.7 337 April 80 1 2 1 4 3.7 275 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) May 83 1 2 7.1 218 1 2 1 5.5 June 66 3 8 1 2 9.1 150 1 2 1 8.0 July 65 3 8 1 2 9.2 150 1 2 4.0 August 70 1 2 8.5 160 1 2 1 7.5 September 76 1 4 1 2 7.9 176 1 2 3.4 October 83 9 16 1 2 7.2 215 1 5.6 November 93 11 16 1 2 6.4 266 1 2 1 2 2.2 December 94 13 16 1 2 6.3 241 1 2 1. 4.9 1921 January 104 3 8 par... 269 1 2 2 8.9 February 105 1 2 3 4 8.5 243 1 2 1 4.9 March 106 1 2 5 8 7.0 243 1 2 1 4.9 April 92 1 4 1 2 6.5 239 1 2 2 10.0 May 81 3 8 5 8 9.1 262 1 2 1 3 4 8.0 June 73 11 16 1 2 8.1 245 1 4 1 1 2 7.3 July 77 1 2 7.8 279 1 2 1 1 2 6.45 August 85 1 16 1 4 3.5 286 1 4.2 September 85 11 16 3 8 5.2 347 1 2 1 1 2 5.1 October 94 1 8 3 8 4.8 471 5 12.7 November 96 5 8 1 4 3.1 764 1 2 2 1 4 3.5 December 93 15 16 1 2 6.4 855 1 1 2 2.1 1922 January 97 1 8 1 4 3.0 777 1 2 3 1 2 5.4 February 92 1 2 7 16 5.7 872 2 1 2 3.4 March 83 3 16 1 4 3.6 1117 1 1 2 1.6 April 83 5 16 15pts. 2.16 1440 8 6.6 May 83 10 1.45 1270 1 2.47 June 85 7 8 3.41 1222 par... July 100 par... 2320 +5 +2.59 August 96 par... 3175 +20 +7.56 September 101 11 1.31 5700... October 103 10 1.16 9900 +450mks 1 +54.54 November 106 8.91 26, 250 +6, 000mks 1 +274.3 December 931 20 2.56 35, 000 +5, 500mks 1 +188.58 1923 January 92 11 1.43 39, 500 +1, 750mks 1 +53.16 February 97 1 2 23 2.83 190, 000 +27, 000mks 1 +170.53 March 97 3 8 23 2.82 105, 000 +10, 000mks 1 +114.28 April 93 3 8 18 2.30 97, 500 +6, 000mks 1 +73.85 May 94 7 8 19 2.28 170, 000 +20, 000mks 1 +141.18 June 99 15 1.82 350, 000 +40, 000mks 1 +137.14 July 106 7 8 22 2.47 900, 000 +30, 000 1 +40.00 August 105 1 2 28 3.18 5, 500, 000 +1, 500, 000 1 +327.27 *1
52 3 1919 4.40 4.40 1 2 4.40 4.40 1 2 4.40 1 1 1 2
3.4 53 1. 5 1 2 4 1922 1923 1923 3 3 3 2 9 1922 10 50 2.
54 3 (turn) 3. 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 ) 1 1 2 1 2 4.
3.4 55 1920 6 1921 2 25 1920 11 1921 2 3.45 3.90 1921 5 1922 1921 1 2 1921 7 1922 1922 6
56 3 1. (pp. 53-54) 1/8 1922 5
3.4 57 2. 3. 1922 1923 1 2 1
58 3 * 14 (money rate) *14
59 4 2 1. vs 2. vs 3.
60 4 4.1 vs 1922 4 1923 10 *1 100 100 *1 (1922 4 )
4.1 vs 61 1922 *2 *2 (1922) (1919) 1922
62 4 : 1. 1913 *3 *3 ( 11 1922 12 7 )
4.1 vs 63 2. / 100 60 60 100 100 5-10 / 5-10 *4 3. 4 *4 64
64 4 11 274 7 3 20 1822 6 12 *5 1819 1 14 1813 5 *6 1 4 2 5 10 *5 1822 6 11 12 *6 p.468
4.2 vs 65 4.2 vs 1 1910-1920 1920 1919 12 29
66 4 2 8 1919 2 3 1921 1920 16 50 4.1 *1 1919 100 100 100 100 1920 112 129 115 152 1921 95 65 69 72 1922 90 64 71 74 *1 Statist /
4.2 vs 67
68 4 *7 4.3 *7 xvii
4.3 69 1914
70 4 / 2 2
4.3 71 *8 3 17 10 1 2 *8 1914 The Economic Journal, xxiv. p. 621.
72 4 3 11 *9 * 10 (1), (2) (3) *9 Monetary Reconstruction, p.132. *10 Loc cit p.22.
4.3 73
75 5 I. II. 5.1 (1) 35 *1 9 *1 (Joint Stock banks) 1921 11.0 11.9 41.1 50.1
76 5 ( 1914-28 : (a) (b) (c) * 2 (d) 9 (d) (a), (b), (c), (d) (a) (b) (c) (d) (a) (a) (a) (a) (c) (d) *3 (b) (c) (d) (c) *2 *3
5.1 77 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (d) (i) (ii) (iii) (a) (b) (c) (d) *4 (2) (1) *4 (c) (c) (c) (iii) (c) (iv) (c) (iii) (c) (i) (c) (ii) (c) (i) (c) (ii) (c) (ii. )
78 5 (3) (4) / I.
5.1 79 *5 II. *5 p. 105.
80 5 3 1 3 17 10 1 2 3 17 9 1 1 2 1 2 1 (1) 50 3 (2)
5.1 81 3 3 1918 1919 1920-21 1922-23
82 5 / 5.2
5.2 83 *6 1 5000 *6
84 5 2
5.3 85 5.3 2
87 John Maynard Keyens, A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923) (pdf ) 5.4 1883-1946) (1936 ) 21 1930 2000 20 5.5
88 1920 5.5.1
5.5 89 5.5.2
90 5.6 1990 2013 2 QQE) 1.2
5.7 91 5.7 1960 21
92 IS-LM 1960 2008 5.8 4 1978 2005
5.8 93 1981) (2010) http://www.genpaku.org/keynes/monetaryreform/ url 227thday 2014 5 hiyori13@alum.mit.edu) * 4
95 Version History ) version1.0 2014 3 17 * 7 version1.2 2014 3 18 227thday (https://docs.google.com/ document/d/1akpbmiblu3yg8myqcfyonjxadxvljdu2-niwzazddqe/edit) (1.2 ) TNX!! version1.3 2014 5 25 *7 http://delong.typepad.com/ keynes-1923-a-tract-on-monetary-reform.pdf Acrobat OCR pdf 156-157 pdf