The Emerging Markets Weekly / 14 6 1 EU 15 4 3 10 16 EU ECB 2,500 10 3.10 17 10 16 BOTMPC 1.50 BOK BI 17 25 4.50 25 5.25 3.75 1.50 takahiko.sasaki@mizuho-bk.co.jp kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp 11 14 CBRT 16 CBRT 17 NAFTA 5 17 BCB 16 COPOM 6.50 COPOM6 20
yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp 10 4 CPI 15 4 10 2011 7 3.10 9 1957 15 4 PMI 51.3 3 / 50 2016 7 1 4 PMI PMI 50 MSCI VIX 2 11 910 CBRT 2 14 6 24 CBRT 16 CBRT 16 11 The Emerging Markets Weekly 2
6 12 1 PMI 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 14 15 16 17 18 Markit 2MSCI VIX 1400 1987=100 40 1300 MSCI 35 VIX 1200 30 1100 25 1000 20 900 15 800 10 17/01 17/04 17/07 17/10 18/01 18/04 MSCI The Emerging Markets Weekly 3
takahiko.sasaki@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 11 PBoC 2018 13 GDP 2017 GDP +250.3%+2.7 20122016 +13.5 BIS 3 PBoC 2017 9 30 1.5 RRR 2018 0.5 10 1.5 2018 4 17 MLF PBoC RRR 1 Shibor3 2017 4.9133 4.0 2017 2 4 Shibor PBoC 15 4 +9.74 +7.0 3 4 +7.0 3 +6.0 3 4 300 250 GDP 5.0 4.5 200 150 100 50 4.0 3.5 3.0 1 3 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 BIS 2.5 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 CFETS The Emerging Markets Weekly 4
takahiko.sasaki@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 15 BCBCOPOM Selic 6.50BCB 3 21 BCB 25bp BCB BCB 3.6 2019 +4.0+36 3.6 BCB GDP 3 0.74 2 0.10 18 BCB 1 +4.21 BCB +4.00 6 10 7 BCB The Emerging Markets Weekly 5
5 6 1 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 17/01 17/04 17/07 17/10 18/01 18/04 The Emerging Markets Weekly 6
-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 MY TR CL CN ZA PH TH RU IN KR BR MX ID PL -4.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 RU BR MY IN CL TH KR ZA CN MX PL ID PH TR -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 5 bp 5 bp -150-100 -50 0 50 100-100 0 100 200 300 400 The Emerging Markets Weekly 7
4 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 17/05 17/07 17/09 17/11 18/01 18/03 EM EURUSD 12 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4 EURUSD 5 HUF CZK COP SGD PEN TWD VIX MOVE 3 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 3 45 VIX MOVE 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 16/05 16/08 16/11 17/02 17/05 17/08 17/11 18/02 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 17/06 17/08 17/10 17/12 18/02 18/04 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 1 The Emerging Markets Weekly 8
514 () 4.4% 4.6% 4.3% -- 15 () 10.0% 9.4% 10.1% -- 15 () 6.4% 7.0% 6.0% -- 15 () 7.4% 7.0% 7.5% -- 15 () $733m -$1629m $1092m $1123m 15 () 3.7% -9.8% 4.5% -- 15 () -- 5.2% -0.7% -- 16 () 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -- 17 () 7.3% 11.8% -2.7% -3.2% 17 () 5.6% 5.4% 5.9% -- 17 () 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% -- 18 () -- -- -$266m -- 21 () 4.0% -- 4.0% -- 21 () -- -- 3.1% -- 21-24 -$235m -- $1268m -- 23 () -- -- 1.3% -- 23 () -- -- 0.2% -- 23 () -- -- 3.1% -- 23 () -- -- -110.7b -- 24 () 4.4% -- 4.3% -- 24 () -- -- 1.50% -- 25 () -- -- 5.9% -- 25 () -- -- 3.0% -- 中東欧 アフリカ 514 () -4.15b -4.81b -4.15b -4.52b 16 () 8.3% 7.6% 9.9% 10.1% 16 () 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.2% 16 () 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% -- 18-21 1.2% -- 1.0% -- 21-22 6.4% -- 4.8% -- 22 () 2.4% -- 2.0% -- 22 () 6.2% -- 6.5% -- 23 () 4.6% -- 3.8% -- 24 () -- -- 3.7% -- 24 () -- -- 6.50% -- 25 () -- -- 77.3% -- ラテンアメリカ 516-17 6.25% 6.50% 6.50% -- 18 () 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% -- 22 () -- -- 1.2% -- 23 () -- -- 0.2% -- 23 () 1.7% -- 1.2% -- 24 () -- -- $798m -- 25 () -- -- 1917.5m -- 2018 5 18 The Emerging Markets Weekly 9
2018 14 2018 2019 SPOT 6 9 12 3 6 ) 6.2431 6.5362 6.3672 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.45 6.45 HKD) 7.8136 7.8509 7.8498 7.84 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.81 ) 63.246 66.939 67.699 68.0 69.5 68.2 65.0 64.0 ) 13263 13982 14058 13950 13950 13800 13500 13400 ) 1054.18 1098.59 1081.10 1075 1065 1055 1050 1060 ) 3.8533 4.0660 3.9695 4.02 4.12 3.98 3.85 3.72 ) 49.705 52.490 52.284 53.3 54.5 52.8 51.0 51.5 SGD) 1.3009 1.3384 1.3422 1.34 1.36 1.33 1.32 1.30 TWD) 28.958 29.754 29.901 29.50 29.30 29.10 29.00 29.20 ) 31.09 32.62 32.08 31.4 31.6 31.2 31.0 30.8 VND) 22680 22830 22770 22880 23000 22950 22800 22750 ) 55.5563 65.0446 62.1700 63.00 64.00 62.00 63.00 64.00 ) 11.5078 12.5461 12.6024 12.00 11.00 12.00 12.50 13.00 ) 3.7163 4.1934 4.4624 4.20 4.00 3.60 3.80 4.10 ) 3.1214 3.5146 3.6972 3.42 3.50 3.30 3.27 3.25 ) 17.9401 19.7361 19.7351 20.00 19.50 18.50 18.00 18.00 ) 16.537 17.543 17.406 16.85 16.25 15.50 15.50 15.19 HKD) 13.326 14.505 14.114 13.65 13.27 12.77 12.79 12.55 ) 1.607 1.790 1.637 1.57 1.50 1.47 1.54 1.53 100) 0.759 0.845 0.788 0.767 0.746 0.725 0.741 0.731 100) 9.634 10.681 10.239 9.95 9.77 9.48 9.52 9.25 ) 26.449 28.395 27.876 26.62 25.24 25.13 25.97 26.34 ) 1.999 2.272 2.118 2.01 1.91 1.89 1.96 1.90 SGD) 79.19 85.50 82.54 79.85 76.47 75.19 75.76 75.38 TWD) 3.585 3.843 3.706 3.63 3.55 3.44 3.45 3.36 ) 3.344 3.525 3.454 3.41 3.29 3.21 3.23 3.18 100VND) 0.4590 0.4992 0.4867 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 ) 1.643 1.993 1.782 1.70 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.53 ) 8.710 9.293 8.792 8.92 9.45 8.33 8.00 7.54 ) 25.464 30.311 24.823 25.48 26.00 27.78 26.32 23.90 ) 31.117 35.131 29.969 31.29 29.71 30.30 30.58 30.15 ) 5.549 5.981 5.614 5.35 5.33 5.41 5.56 5.44 1. 2018 4 30 SPOT 5 18 7 2.3.4. Emerging Market Monthly5 1 5 7 The Emerging Markets Weekly 10
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