40 1 3 4 1 95
1. 4 1 4 38 50 50 38 30 40 4 3 1 30 40 8 30 9 50 7 8 60 6 7 3 0 1 1 96
97
30 0 98
50 30 40 60 R S. E. D.W. 4 5 9 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 50 54 55 59 60 64 65 RM 1.9591 0.968 EM 0.9919.7098 1.67 (1.37) (39.85) RM.1351 0.8975 EM 0.9969 1.966 1.10 (1.98) (65.17) RM 3.477 0.845 EM 0.9958.588 1.00 (.40) (55.77) RM 6.05 0.873 EM 0.9959.7510 1.6 (3.95) (55.97) RM 4.796 0.864 EM 0.9934 3.6856 1.36 (.8) (44.40) RM 0.686 0.961 EM 0.9886 5.804 1.8 (0.3) (33.6) RM 3.564 0.8880 EM 0.986 5.6164 0.61 (1.00) (30.48) RM 3.8868 0.987 EM 0.9915 3.7470 0.77 (1.78) (39.01) RM 5.9480 0.8538 EM 0.993.5011.50 (4.04) (43.59) RM 8.0644 0.79 EM 0.9810 3.5116 1.57 (3.99) (5.90) 1. RM EM. 38 51 3. R S. E. D.W. 99
4 0 5 0 4. RM EM 4 1 3 18 3 4 1 EM 1 3 100
E 4 1 E = E 1 + r 1 C 1 δ 1 E 1 k C 4 C = k E 4 1 1 4 3 E = E0 (1 + rj k j δ j ) j= 0 E 0 4 3 1 1 4 4 l E = l E + r k δ n n 0 j j= 0 Y Y 4 5 Y = E C = E 1 k ) j ( 4 4 j= 0 1 1 0 j j j n j= 0 j= 0 4 6 l Y = l E + r k δ + l (1 k ) n n α 4 7 l n Y = { l ne0 ( α + )} + { α r λ + β ( 1+ α )} 1 { β r + μ + β (1 + α )} α C0 = l ne0 ( α + ) C = α r λ + β (1 + α) C 1 1 = { β r + μ + β (1 + α )} 101 j
l n RM = c0 + c1 + c c 0 c 1 c R S.E. 38.655 0.0686 0.0011 0.949 0.0368 (33.95) (11.0) ( 10.08) 39.7678 0.0679 0.0011 0.9706 0.070 (46.0) (14.10) ( 1.56) 40.943 0.0613 0.0010 0.9467 0.034 (39.85) (10.48) ( 9.41) 41 3.01 0.0611 0.0010 0.9558 0.0319 (44.35) (11.17) ( 9.79) 4 3.10 0.0641 0.0011 0.9419 0.0370 (39.41) (10.33) ( 9.50) 43 3.936 0.056 0.0009 0.9736 0.00 (70.1) (14.94) ( 13.31) 44 3.4305 0.0541 0.0009 0.9663 0.051 (80.06) (15.76) ( 14.6) 45 3.5486 0.0558 0.0009 0.976 0.07 (89.70) (17.74) ( 16.73) 46 3.6550 0.0570 0.0010 0.9465 0.0339 (64.85) (1.66) ( 1.1) 47 3.8119 0.0554 0.0010 0.9511 0.0317 (74.9) (13.34) ( 1.88) 48 4.0196 0.0511 0.0009 0.911 0.0377 (66.19) (10.39) ( 10.10) 49 4.067 0.0537 0.0010 0.9016 0.0449 (58.81) (9.3) ( 9.07) 50 4.3199 0.0581 0.0010 0.9193 0.0447 (6.06) (10.) ( 9.94) 51 4.490 0.057 0.0010 0.8978 0.0504 (57.08) (8.99) ( 8.63) 1. RM RH. R S. E. 10
l n RH = c0 + c1 + c c 0 c 1 c R S.E..808 0.0767 0.0013 0.9575 0.0368 (35.84) (1.33) ( 11.50).91 0.0750 0.001 0.9775 0.054 (51.57) (16.5) ( 14.96) 3.1031 0.0684 0.0011 0.9399 0.0395 (36.44) (10.13) ( 9.33) 3.1649 0.0703 0.001 0.9543 0.0356 (41.58) (11.51) ( 10.43) 3.40 0.0731 0.001 0.931 0.0456 (33.43) (9.56) ( 8.91) 3.5015 0.0613 0.0010 0.9790 0.005 (79.84) (17.43) ( 15.99) 3.65 0.0630 0.0011 0.9505 0.0350 (60.70) (13.17) ( 1.58) 3.79 0.0669 0.001 0.9696 0.084 (75.19) (16.98) ( 16.35) 3.846 0.0670 0.001 0.9438 0.0408 (56.56) (1.37) ( 1.17) 4.0048 0.0643 0.001 0.959 0.0458 (54.08) (10.73) ( 10.57) 4.37 0.0600 0.0011 0.9056 0.0489 (53.80) (9.40) ( 9.38) 4.4390 0.0616 0.0011 0.8703 0.0600 (46.50) (7.93) ( 7.88) 4.515 0.0658 0.001 0.9163 0.0517 (56.17) (10.01) ( 9.86) 4.6169 0.0649 0.001 0.889 0.0597 (50.6) (8.61) ( 8.33) 6 103
l n EM = d 0 + d1 + d d 0 d 1 d R S.E. 38.516 0.0846 0.0014 0.947 0.085 (8.06) (8.9) ( 6.13) 39.6695 0.0790 0.0013 0.939 0.084 (30.50) (7.93) ( 6.01) 40.7919 0.0766 0.0013 0.951 0.07 (36.70) (8.87) ( 6.68) 41.9080 0.0737 0.001 0.958 0.065 (4.47) (9.53) ( 7.14) 4 3.0053 0.0740 0.0013 0.961 0.061 (45.78) (10.05) ( 7.59) 43 3.081 0.0716 0.001 0.963 0.058 (5.) (10.48) ( 8.08) 44 3.3694 0.0686 0.001 0.96 0.055 (5.43) (9.61) ( 9.45) 45 3.5557 0.0663 0.001 0.966 0.049 (66.89) (11.49) ( 9.16) 46 3.7007 0.063 0.0011 0.967 0.045 (73.99) (11.8) ( 9.51) 47 3.8484 0.066 0.0011 0.973 0.039 (86.66) (13.0) ( 10.68) 48 4.0451 0.065 0.0011 0.965 0.044 (97.74) (14.48) ( 11.88) 49 4.733 0.0605 0.0011 0.971 0.039 (116.78) (16.4) ( 13.79) 50 4.3169 0.0570 0.0011 0.949 0.045 (89.68) (11.33) ( 9.63) 51 4.4191 0.0580 0.0011 0.945 0.047 (86.94) (10.96) ( 9.43) 1. EM EB. R S. E. 104
l n EB = d 0 + d1 + d d 0 d 1 d R S.E..9066 0.0861 0.0015 0.948 0.083 (3.98) (8.61) ( 6.51) 3.0193 0.0830 0.0014 0.955 0.075 (38.15) (9.9) ( 7.00) 3.1197 0.0831 0.0014 0.958 0.071 (40.63) (9.66) ( 7.33) 3.3189 0.0811 0.0014 0.957 0.070 (44.55) (9.79) ( 7.60) 3.4876 0.0781 0.0014 0.958 0.066 (45.13) (9.10) ( 7.09) 3.688 0.0757 0.0013 0.961 0.060 (57.05) (10.73) ( 8.58) 3.840 0.078 0.0013 0.959 0.059 (59.45) (10.54) ( 8.53) 3.9984 0.0716 0.0013 0.965 0.051 (69.09) (11.59) ( 9.44) 4.1871 0.0706 0.0013 0.958 0.054 (81.5) (13.18) ( 10.81) 4.463 0.0689 0.001 0.961 0.051 (90.79) (13.89) ( 11.8) 4.5054 0.0648 0.001 0.941 0.056 (76.4) (10.50) ( 8.99) 4.5951 0.0649 0.001 0.936 0.057 (74.93) (10.4) ( 8.89) 105
4 7 4 8 l n Y = c0 + c1 + c 4 4 c 1 c c 1 c c 1 c 40 4 = = 6 106
4 8 4 3 4 c1 < d1 c d 3 10% 5% 5% 1 1 1 1 107
5 1 5 108
38 4% 51 6% 4 4 1 4 30 40 3 55 4 5 40 50 30 65 4 6% 51 3% 4 5 109
110
1 40 3 4 6 10 1.5 4 6 0 4 30 40 55 111
11
UR 1.0 6 URW URO 4 9 URW URO = ( UR 1.0) + ( UR 1.0) URW URO 1 1 7 1 URW ' 1 URO' 49 6 1% 7 1 1 1 URW URW ' URW ' URW URO' 113
4 8 1 44 49 8 4 4 3 1 8 4 4 44 49 114
% 4 5 9 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 50 54 55 59 60 64 65 44 0.355 0.319 0.303 0.313 0.381 0.437 0.43 0.339 0.63 0.0 0.13 49 0.33 0.317 0.30 0.38 0.318 0.389 0.411 0.381 0.308 0.65 0.166 1 4 5 9 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 50 54 55 59 60 64 65 44 1.53 1.60 1.38 1.30 1.38 1.44 1.68 1.97.04.09 1.81 1.58 1.61 1.4 1.39 1.44 l.53 1.7 1.69.09.16 1.85 49 1.5 1.44 1.34 1.9 1.36 1.46 1.66 1.94.04.00 1.83 1.53 1.46 1.33 1.3 1.38 1.48 1.67 1.91.04 1.99 1.7 115
% 4 5 9 30 34 35 39 38 0.5 0.5 0.18 0. 39 0.38 0.1 0.19 0.3 40 0.34 0.1 0.0 0.5 41 0.34 0.1 0. 0.6 4 0.50 0.19 0.0 0.7 43 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.31 44 0.35 0.4 0.1 0.31 45 0.33 0.0 0. 0.31 46 0.34 0.0 0.3 0.30 47 0.35 0.19 0.0 0.9 48 0.8 0.1 0. 0.9 49 0.34 0.4 0.1 0.30 50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 51 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 5 34 40 4 1 4 5 40 4 7 1 116
1 1 35 5 34 5 9 35 49 3 50 4 5 40 50 117
40 4 6 60 10 40 50 4. 1 1 4 8 1 39 4 35 39 40 50 3 60 40 118
1 119
60 4 8 4 4 6 AP 9 9 5 1 10
R D.W. 4 URO = 1.6477 5.4563 AP 50 59 0.000053 AO 0.7687.79 (8.19) ( 6.) (0.9) 5 9 URO = 0.7140.841 AP 50 59 0.000035 AO 0.8453.94 (11.1) ( 8.15) (1.90) 30 34 URO = 0.873 0.850 AP 50 59 0.748.37 (8.10) ( 6.1) 35 39 URO = 0.1805 0.4798 AP 65 0.000013 AO 0.604 1.86 (6.13) ( 4.65) (1.54) 40 44 URO = 0.6861.871 AP 50 59 0.00003 AO 0.8646.13 (11.44) ( 8.74) (1.86) 45 49 URO = 1.4043.5445 AP 55 0.00007 AO 0.0437 59 SG 4 0.971 1.07 (4.58) (.60) (3.63) ( 0.88) 50 54 URO =.4465 1.917 AP 65 0.00010 AO 0.1187 SG 4 0.7096 1.46 (4.7) ( 1.13) (.0) ( 1.7) 55 59 URO = 3.03 3.5509 AP 55 0.000143 AO 0.143 59 SG 4 0.9377 1.88 (6.11) (.1) (4.4) ( 1.67) 60 64 URO = 1.906 3.9510 AP 60 64 0.8805 1.80 (17.01) ( 9.84) 65 URO = 1.7969 3.7347 AP 65 0.6880.09 (3.48) ( 5.45) 1. URO = AP AO = SG 4 =4. R D.W. 3. 38 51 11
4 SG 10 AO AO 1 1 1 11 4 7 1 1 1 1 4 0.9701 0.9609 5 9 0.9815 0.9750 30 34 0.9901 0.9869 35 39 0.9873 0.9866 40 44 0.9910 0.9915 45 49 0.987 0.988 50 54 0.990 0.9933 55 59 0.9875 0.9941 60 64 0.9901 0.9898 65 0.9767 0.973 1.. 3. 38 51 10 =9 =1 =14 =16 11 4 10 4 14 1
1 7 4 1 6 3 1 5 1. RW URW 1 EVE 4 10 RW = EVE URW 13 1 13 13
14
RW EVE 1 URW 1 1 EVE EV 4 10 ' RW = EV URW' 4 10 4 10 ' 4 11 drw d 4 11 ' drw d 14 deve durw = + d d dev durw ' = + d d 4 9 5 9 35 39 45 49 3 1 RW EV 5 9 35 39 45 49 45 49 4 1 drw > d dev d 4 11 ' durw ' 4 13 > 0 d 45 49 15. 14 URW URW ' URW ' 15
1 RO 1 EOE 1 URO 4 14 RO = EOE URO 4 15 dro d = deoe d + duro d 1 EOE 15 1 RWH HW 4 10 (1) RW = RWH HW URW 1 WW () RW = WW HW URW'' (3) drw dww dhw durw '' = d d d d dww / d dev / d 4 11 ' 3 durw ' durw '' (4) dhw = d d d (5) dhw < 0 d durw ' durw '' (6) < d d 16
4 8 1 4 50 59 5 9 55 64 3 30 34 60 4 35 39 65 5 40 44 65 4 6 45 49 4 7 50 54 4 8 55 59 9 9 60 64 34 10 65 34 EO EOE 4 14 ' 4 15 ' RO dro d = EO URO' = deo d + duro' d 4 10 EO RO 5 9 35 39 45 49 1 4 16 dro < d deo d 17
18
4 15 ' duro' 4 17 < 0 d 1 16 3. 49 49 =1.00 17 4 18 RRW = RW / RW49 4 19 RRO = RO / RO49 4 0 REV = EV / EV49 4 1 REO = EO / EO49 4 RURW ' = URW ' / URW ' 49 4 3 RURO' = URO' /URO' 49 16 17 49 49 19
4 10 ' 4 18 4 0 4 4 4 RW / EV RURW ' = = RRW / RW49 / EV49 REV 4 15 ' 4 19 4 1 4 3 4 5 18 = RO / EO = RRO RURO' / RO49 / EO49 REO 4 4 4 5 RRW REV RRO REO RURW RURO RURW ' RURO' 1 1 UR URW URO 4 6 UR = 1. 0 + URW + URO 49 4 4 URW49 URO49 19 1 ' 4 7 4 8 URW URO = ( UR = ( UR 1.0) RURW ' 1.0) RURW ' RURW ' URW49 URW + RURO' URO 49 RURO' URO49 URW + RURO' URO 49 49 49 18 RURW ' RURO' 4 10 p.6 38 41 4 4 19 URO 49 UR 49 URW 4 6 49 130
1 4 11 38 6.9% 50 5.8% 1% 4 1 131
1 13
133
134
4 13 1 30 50 3 4 1 4 30 50 4 14 4 60 1 3 135
4 15 1 136
137
3 4 16 4 0 0 44 10.5% 49 8.8% 138
4 17 1 139
46 140
3 4 4 18 60 4 19 1 141
14
3 4 0 38 50 1% 9 143
144
145
1 3 4 5 3 1 1 5 10 10 4 10 4 1 30 51 1,00 4 146
A B C D E 30 10,45 9,873 9,99 31 9,619 10,073 3 10,56 33 11,113 34 11,4 11,455 35 13,687 13,01 1,74 36 13,78 37 13,94 13,803 1,693 38 15,115 1,677 39 14,945 13,733 40 17,46 16,43 15,31 15,59 14,416 41 15,467 4 16,911 15,58 43 17,4 18,040 16,794 44 18,0 16,351 45 0,795 19,514 18,038 18,018 46 19,697 18,838 18,019 47 19,990 17,57 48 19,741 17,85 49 1,886 0,709 18,16 50 3,41 1,74 0,855 19,17 51 1,133 1. A 1. B 147
4 10 4 10 A B 1 148
4 3 149
4 4 5 50 4 11 60 5 9 45 49 150
% 51 38 5,644 50.0 100.0 4 80 44.0 1.4 5 9 887 85.7 15.7 30 34 688 9.9 1. 35 39 870 38.1 15.4 40 44 861 50.0 15.3 45 49 1,07 71.9 18. 50 54 515 43.6 9.1 55 59 43 38.0 4.3 60 64 307 9.5 5.4 65 165 95.4.9 38 51 30 51 37 38 4 1 151
4 30 51 a b R S.E. D.W. 4 38.06 0.013 0.014 45.15 0.33 (.5) ( 0.85) 5 9 160.3 0.646 0.817 147.46 0.60 ( 5.57) (9.73) 30 34 1558.03 0.97 0.851 196.01 0.90 ( 4.41) (11.01) 35 39 570.93 0.857 0.959 18.31 1.34 ( 4.14) (.1) 30 39 18.64 0.919 0.939 80.34 1.1 ( 5.5) (18.0) 40 44 45 49 40 49 434.94 0.75 0.935 38.56 0.53 ( 1.81) (17.39) 50 54 55 59 50 59 817.36 1.154 0.917 11.51 0.78 ( 9.09) (15.7) 60 64 65 60 665.91 0.80 0.981 30.16.03 ( 17.0) (3.31) 1. HN = a + b PD HN. R S. E. D.W. 15
5 9 38 51 a b R S.E. D.W. 718.71 0.05 0.477 31.39 0.9 (5.16) ( 3.58) 1167.01 0.557 0.816 19.83 0.49 ( 3.50) (7.66) 398.71 1.177 0.577 198.01 1.4 (.07) (4.33) 135.71 1.043 0.753 153.13 1.44 (.0) (6.37) 4673.77 1.7 0.756 98.46 1.56 (.95) (6.4) 54.88 0.616 0.919 109.58.17 (1.44) (1.18) 4.48 0.567 0.95 75.9.14 (.3) (16.05) 517.77 0.589 0.969 11.51.55 (.8) (0.33) 19.95 0.637 0.867 53.60 1.65 ( 0.83) (9.7) 1417.78 1.17 0.775 47.94 1.45 ( 4.4) (6.77) 190.06 0.788 0.870 78.78 1.6 ( 3.35) (9.38) 87.49 0.766 0.947 3.9 1.35 ( 9.87) (15.7) 05.10 0.14 0.91 18.7.66 ( 5.49) (1.34) 73.03 0.9 0.956 33.8.1 ( 8.1) (16.10) PD 153
30 38 51 40 40 54 55 59 1 60 64 65 38 154
R S. E. D.W. 5 9 HN = 106.45 0.03 PD 98.98 AP 50 59 0.971 51.68.10 ( 11.9) (3.86) (8.05) 30 34 HN = 1590.5 0.94 PD 0.5 AO 1 0.578 197.80 1.3 ( 1.13) (.50) (1.01) 35 39 HN = 654.33 0.78 PD 0.311 AO 1 0.808 134.80 1.38 ( 0.99) (4.13) (.1) 40 44 HN = 54.88 0.616 PD 0.919 109.58.17 (1.44) (1.18) 45 49 HN = 4.48 0.567 PD 0.95 75.9.14 (.3) (16.05) 50 54 HN = 19.95 0.637 PD 0.867 53.60 1.65 ( 0.83) (9.7) 55 59 HN = 871.5 0.666 PD 10.4 AP 55 0.084 59 AO 1 0.848 39.39.43 (.51) (.67) (1.0) (.03) 60 64 HN = 805.54 0.611 PD 7.40 AP 60 64 0.947 3.85 1.37 ( 7.36) (3.86) (1.03) 65 HN = 05.10 0.14 PD 0.91 18.7.66 ( 5.49) (1.34) 1. HN PD AP AO 1 1. R S. E. D.W. 3. 38 51 155
4 13 4 3 5 1 4 p.163 3 4 0 4 156