Title 資本のヴィンテージ 研究開発と生産性 Author(s) 徳井, 丞次 ; 乾, 友彦 ; 落合, 勝昭 Citation Issue 2007-04 Date Type Technical Report Text Version publisher URL http://hdl.handle.net/10086/13513 Right Hitotsubashi University Repository
Center for Economic Institutions Working Paper Series CEI Working Paper Series, No. 2007-2 "The Impact of Vintage Capital and R&D on Japanese Firms Productivity" Joji Tokui Tomohiko Inui Katsuaki Ochiai Center for Economic Institutions Working Paper Series Institute of Economic Research Hitotsubashi University 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo, 186-8603 JAPAN Tel: +81-42-580-8405 Fax: +81-42-580-8333 e-mail: cei-info@ier.hit-u.ac.jp
1 1990 (2002)Kawamoto(2004)Hayashi and Prescott2003Fukao et al(2004) 1 TFP 2 2002 Brastetter and Nakamura(2003)2004Kwon and Inui2003 1990 Brastetter and Nakamura(2003) 1990 TFP TFP TFP TFP disembodied technological change Gordon1990 1990 TFP embodied technological change embodied technological change TFP 1
2 3 investment spike investment spike investment spike R&D machine-embodied technical change Solow1960 1990 Greenwood &Javanovic2001 1990 TFP 1990 IT Wolff19911996 Hulten1992 Greenwood et al.(1997) Gittleman, Raa and Wolff(2003)Hobijn2001 Bahk and Gort(1993)Power1998Sakallearis(2001), Sakallearis and Wilson(2004)Lincando, Maroto and Punch2005 Gittleman, Raa and Wolff(2003) TFP Gittleman, Raa and Wolff(2003) TFP 0.040.16 TFP 1947 1997 TFP 0.490.31 TFP Hulten1992Greenwood et al.(1997) Gordon1990 2
Hulten1992 1949 1983 3.44 TFP 20 Greenwood et al. (1997) 1954 1990 TFP 58 Hobijn 2001 19601990 BEA 5.6 8.5 Power1998 Power1998 Sakallearis(2001), Sakallearis and Wilson(2004) Nelson1964 Bahk and Gort(1993) Learning by Doing Nelson1964 Bahk and Gort(1993) investment spikes Power1998 Sakallearis and Wilson(2004) investment spike 3 Investment spikes Power1998Lincando, Maroto and Punch2005 4 investment 3
spikes investment spikes Investment spikes Investment spike 3 investment spike Iit i Iim i Kit 5 3 Absolute Investment Spike(AIS) t IitKit Relative Investment Spike (RIS) t Iit Iim Combined Investment Spike(CIS) t AIS RIS CIS 1990 1980 2003 24 10 4 AIS 1937 RIS CIS 1815 6 4
investment spikes investment spikes Power1998Lincando, Maroto and Punch2005 1.750.20 AISRISCIS 5
AIS investment spikes 1991 investment spike 30 1980 50 AIS 14 24 57 investment spikes 20 investment spikes RIS AIS 1991 investment spike 6
55 35 30 RIS investment spikes investment spikes 4 investment spikes 2 investment spikes 12 investment spikes CIS AISRIS spikes 13 investment spikes 7
AIS 80 90 investment spike RIS AIS 80 90 investment spike CIS AISRIS investment spikes Lincando, Maroto and Punch2005 7 unbalanced panel spike 1 AIS 1541 8 RIS 1841 CIS 1424 42 54 spike 1 24 1980 investment spikes investment spikes 8
investment spike 1 2 investment spike investment spikes 9 1980 investment spike 1979 8 1987 investment spikes 1987 1980 1987 investment spikes 1987 1987 AIS 2 4 AIS 9
investment spikes investment spikes investment spikes investment spikes investment spikes investment spikes 10
10 11 2006 2006 Vt = [( Vt 1 + 1)*( Kt It) + 0.5* It] / Kt 11
(1) i y it k it (1) it n d i it it it nd it it X d n D n k t y ε η γ β β β + + + Β Ω + + + = = = 3 1 7 0 2 1 1 ), ( ) ( log log TFP (1) D i n X (1) it d n ), ( it i η 12 12
n it (n) Ω RDSTOCK RD (2) 15 (2) 1 ) 1 ( + = t t t RDSTOCK RD RDSTOCK δ 13
13 1980 26 1985 1997 2003 37 SNA 22 14 0.61 60 yi y log y i log y = yi y y 14
2 (1) 15 CISRISAIS 15
CIS RIS AIS 1986 2002 TFP TFP GDP TFP TFP GDP TFP GDP 24 25 100 TFP 2.7 2.8 100 TFP 0.7 16
TFP F 17
CIS RIS AIS J 6 J 18
19
TFP 20
TFP 1.2 0.9 25 F 21
2006 108 SNA 23 1986 2002 1986-91 1992-97 1998-2002 9 10 11 12 22
1997 1998 1990 1992 1990 23
1990 TFP TFP 24
1991 TFP 1998 1997 1998 J 25
10 1990 16 39 Jensen, McGucki and Stiroh(2000) 1990 1990 26
TFP 2006 Arrow, Kenneth J. (1961), Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Research for Invention, in The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economi c and Social Factors, ed R. Nelson, Princeton University Press. Arrow, Kenneth J. (1962), The Economic Implication of Learning by Doing, Review of Economi c Studies, 29, June, 155-173. Bahk, B. and M. Gort. Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants, Journal of Political Economy, vol., no., Brastetter, L. and Y. Nakamura. Is Japan s Innovative Capacity in Decline? NBER Working Paper No. Fukao, K, T. Inui, H. Kawai, and T. Miyagawa. Sectoral Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan, :An Empirical Analysis Based on the JIP Database, in T. ITO and A. Rose,.eds., Growth + Productivity in East Asia, University of Chicago Press, Chicago Greenwood, J., Z. Hercowitz, and P. Krusell. Long-run Implications of Investment-specific Technological Change, American Economic Review,. Greenwood, J., and B. Jovanovic. Accounting for Growth, in C. Hulten, E. Dean, and M. Harper, eds., New Developments in Productivity Analysis, University of Chicago Press, Chicago Grittleman, M., T. Raa, and E. Wolff. The Vintage Effect in TFP Growth: An Analysis of the Age Structure of Capital, NBER Working Pape r, No. Gordon, R. J.. The Measurement of Durable Good Prices, University of Chicago Press, Chicago Hayashi, F., and E. Prescott. The s in Japan: A Lost Decade, Review of 27
Economi c Dynamics,, Hobijn, B.. Embodiment in U.S. Manufacturing, Mimeo. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Hulten, C. R.. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, September,,. Jensen, B., R. McGuckin, and K. Stiroh. The Impact of Vintage and Survival on Productivity: Evidence from Cohorts of U.S. Manufacturing Plants, The Review of Economics and Statistics,, Kawamoto, T.. What Do the Purified Solow Residuals Tell Us about Japan s Lost Decade? IMES Discussion Paper Series, No.2004-E-5, Bank of Japan, Tokyo. Kwon, H., and T. Inui. R&D and Productivity Growth in Japanese Manufacturing Firms ESRI Discussion Paper Series No. Kydland, F. and Prescott, E. C. (1982), "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica, 50, 1345-70. Licandro, O., R. Maroto, and L. Punch. Innovation, Machine Replacement and Productivity, Mimeo, European University Institute Nelson, R.. Aggregate Production Functions and Medium-Range Growth Projections, American Economic Review, September, Power, L.. The Missing Link: Technology, Investment, and Productivity, Review of Economics and Statistics,,. Romer, Paul M. (1986), Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98, October, part, S71-S102. Sakellaris, P.. Production Function Estimation with Industry Capacity Data, Mimeo. Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System. Sakellaris, P., and D. Wilson.. Quantifying Embodied Technological Change, Review of Economic Dynamics,, Solow, R.. Investment and Technical progress, in: Arrow, K., Karlin, S., Suppes, P. Eds., Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences. Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford, CA,. Tirole, Jean (1988), The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press. Wolff, E. N.. "Capital Formation and Productivity Convergence over the Long-Term," American Economic Review, June,,. Wolff, E. N.. "The Productivity Slowdown: The Culprit at Last?" American Economi c Review, December,,. 28