S MORICHI, Shigeru TODOROKI, Tomoyuki 1 1964 3 5 1 71 8 2 2.1 1 Koppelman 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring
8 Diffusion 591 5,6,9,1 2.2 1 2 2 1 11 5 2 1 3 3.1 1 2 1 1 5 155 15 3 15 13 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 9
31 11 3.2 1 //5.52//58//5.9//5 71 2 2 5 8893 88A 93B 936 3.3 3 4 2 3 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 1 2.7.5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 4 1993 1992 1991 199 1989 1988 2.8.6.4.2.9.8.7.5. 2.8.7.5. 3.8.7.5. 4 5 5 4 3 4 6 3 6 2 2 5 3 7 1 1
Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 11 3 2 19741995 1 42 32 3 3.4 S 1 y1 K t a, b 5 Cx=lna/bx xyeyc 1 K 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 2 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 3 A C B D E
KabK 2.95 62 3 3 3.3 6197 198 2 7 S 3.5 8 8.8.7.5 2 1974 198 1986 1992 1998 24 21.8.8 R=.99 R=.98 R=.99 R=.98 R=.98 R=.98 R=.98 2 25 3 35 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 In.8.8 5 5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 1 8 6.5 12 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring
8 2 3 2 i i j l 3 1993 3 i j i j j / 8 3 1t v t 4 x 1 x 2 x 3 / x 4 x 5 / x 6 a i v t 4 2 19741995.87.95 v 6 1 9 4v 21975 198519953 4 4.1 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 13
1 2 1975 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 1985 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 1995 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 1994 9 7 1 117 1981199616 19 2923 23 39 12 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 14 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring
PR 4.2 3.4 3.4 19811996 1 12 K 3.4 K.7.9.8 t 2.8.6 R=.93 R=.98 R=.75.4 R=.98.2 R=.87 R=.92 R=.97 R=.97 1981 85 89 93 97 21 5 9 ab 13 ab/a 2 2 ba ba 6 5 4 3 2 1. 6 5 4 3 2 1 a. a Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 15
5 5.1 14 OD 5 i, k l X 21 1 19811996 3.87 5.2 3.5 4 3 1996 2111 2 5.3 5 t t t 9 43.8 1.33 29. 4 112.8.88 78.1 7.37 73.9 7 57.1 9 4.7 1.62 28.9.8-87.8.76 62.5 2.48 48.9 8 67.4.55 49.8 1.48 28.6 6 57.5 8 5 3.7 18. 1.18 84.3.58 52.1.. 1.6 197.8.59 49.7 2.43 34.9 1.12 133..51 6.9.83 2.5.. 5 V 2226 154.2 b/a 2 16 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring
Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring 17 5.4 2225 16 17 3 2 2. 1.. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1 6 11 16 21 26 b/a 25 2 15 1 5 1996 2 25 21 215 22 1 1 2 2 5 5 1 1 25 25
1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1995 2 25 21 215 18 6 S 1199 42No. 4pp. 76-77 2Koppelman1993 No. 11pp. 239-248 31994 No. 482/IV-22pp. 27-29 41987 42No. 4pp. 476-477 51996 1996pp. 79-87 61994 49No. 4pp. 86-87 71992 27pp. 289-296 81992DIFFUSION MODEL No. 151pp. 25-22 91997 No.21pp. 9-12 1Morichi, Todoroki, Nishimura and Furudoi [1997],Regional Disparity for Oversea Tour Trips of Japanese, Journal of EASTS, Vol.2 No.1, pp.151-16 111993 28pp. 313-32 Analysis on Structure and Future Trend of Regional Disparity for Overseas Tourist Demand of Japan By Shigeru MORICHI and Tomoyuki TODOROKI This paper shows the characteristics of disparity on the current oversea tour trip in Japan with the analysis of several kinds of surveyed data in recent 3 years. It used the logistic curve for the formation of model to show the disparity of the personal attribute and regional characteristics. For the personal attributes, it adapted sex, age, occupation and income. For the regional characteristics, it adapted the level of income, information, leisure time, and transportation convenience. The study found out the structure and factor of disparity of personal attributes and regional characteristics. Finally, the study shows future trend of overseas tourist demand by regions in Japan. Key Words ; Overseas tourist demand, Regional disparity, Future trend analysis 18 Vol.4 No.1 21 Spring