2018 Email: gito@eco.u-toyama.ac.jp July 19, 2018 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 1 / 34
Agenda 1 2 3 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 2 / 34
( ) ( ) q, 1 q ( ) 1 Reject Propose x S 1 S 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c 2 ( ) 0 Accept x, 1 x ( ) 2 S 2 S 1 1 1 q p 2 c 2, q p 1 + c 2 : S 2 2 1 q < p 2 c 2, q > p 1 + c 2 : S 2 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 3 / 34
3 1 (information/informational problem) 2 (commitment problem) 3 (issue individuality) ( ) ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 4 / 34
3 1 (information/informational problem) 2 (commitment problem) 3 (issue individuality) 3 ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 5 / 34
(unitary actor assumption) ( ) (national interest) (particular interest) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 6 / 34
S 1 0 S 1 ( ) S 1 S 2 S 2 1 2 2 ( two-level game, Putnum 1988) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 7 / 34
( 2008[1960]: 28 29) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 8 / 34
(diversionary war) (FLS, ) = ( ) (diversionary incentives) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 9 / 34
The Rally Effect and the Diversionary Incentive Source: FLS, 137 (rally-round-the-flag effect) ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 10 / 34
S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p+r 1 c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 S 1 (gambling for resurrection) ( ) ( ) p 1 c 1 p 1 + r 1 c 1 (r 1 > 0) (= ) ( ) r 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 11 / 34
(1982) 1833 1980 ( ) (1998) ( ) C (2008) www.westpoint.edu (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 12 / 34
( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 13 / 34
S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p+r 1 c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 1: S 1 p 1 + r 1 c 1, r 1 > 0 S 1 r 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 14 / 34
The Political Costs of War 2: Source: FLS, 141 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 15 / 34
(diversionary war) (FLS, ) = ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 16 / 34
Source: FLS, 129 ( ) (Eisenhower) (Hobson) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 17 / 34
S 1 S 2 S 2 0 p c 1 p p + c 2 S 1 1 S 2 S 1 1 2 3 (e.g., ) = ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 18 / 34
(diversionary war) (FLS, ) ( ) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 19 / 34
(democratic peace) (1) (2) (2a) ( ) IR (empirical law) (Levy, 1988) M. Doyle, B. Russet BdM, J. D. Fearon, K. N. Schultz (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 20 / 34
( ) ( ) [ ] (1985[1795]: 32 33) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 21 / 34
(1816 2001) 2,409 132 125 2 Source: Bueno de Mesquita (2010: 182) (empirical law) (Levy, 1988) 200 WWII (robust) (correlates of war) (control) (data triangulation) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 22 / 34
(B. ) FLS (selectorate) ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 23 / 34
(BdM) (1991) 1865 1909 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 24 / 34
p 1 c A 1 > p 1 c D 1 (tempting) ( ) Yours is a society which cannot accept 10,000 dead in one battle (Saddam Hussein) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 25 / 34
(transparency) = (e.g., S 1 ) ( ) = ( ) (e.g., S 2) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 26 / 34
( ) ( ) Tying-hands signal Schelling ( ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 27 / 34
( ) q, 1 q ( ) 1 Reject S 1 Propose x S L 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c L 2 ( ) Choose c L 2 (S 2 is Wolf ) l 0 Accept N x, 1 x ( ) q, 1 q ( ) Choose c H 2 (S 2 is Sheep) 1 l S 1 1 Propose x Reject S H 2 Attack p 1 c 1, p 2 c H 2 ( ) 0 Accept x, 1 x ( ) Note: p 2 = 1 p 1. N (nature), (information set) Kydd. International Relations Theory, Chap. 6 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 28 / 34
( ) S L 2 S 1 S H 2 S k 2 S L 2 S 1 0 q0 p 1 c 1 q 1 p 1 p 1 + c L q 2 q 2 p 1 + c H 2 3 S2 H 1 S L 2 S H 2 S 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 29 / 34
Tying-Hands ( ) v 1, 0 ( ) m 1, v 2 ( ) Don t challenge Don t fight Send signal m S 1 S 2 Challenge S 1 Fight p 1v 1 c 1, p 2v 2 c 2 ( ) m 1 S 1 Don t fight ( ) ( ) m 1 S 1 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 30 / 34
[ ] ( 2008[1960]: 28 29) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 31 / 34
1 2 1 2 (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 32 / 34
Conventional wisdom ( ) Remaining puzzles ( ) (e.g., ) (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 33 / 34
( ) ( ) FLS ( ) 4 5 ( ) 10 2001 128 : 12 29 Brett Ashley Leeds. 2003. Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties International Organization 57(4): 801 827. James D. Morrow. 2000. Alliances: Why Write Them Down? Annual Review of Political Science 3: 63 83. 2, 5, 8 Glenn H. Snyder. 1984. The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics World Politics 36(4): 461 495. (Univ Toyama) July 19, 2018 34 / 34