1 th 1 th Dec.2006 1
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 103 1 2 EITC 2
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 3
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2006 4
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 5
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2 6
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 7
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 3 8
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 9
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2 1 H L T C P W U ( C, L) T L H OA OB AB ( T L) W = PC TW W W C = L OAB P P P t W ( 1 t) OAC P AC E F E G G F 10
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2 11
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 12
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 3 13
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 14
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 15
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 16
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 3 1 1 2 17
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 18
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 19
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2 20
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 4 1 1 :3,590,000 2 :3,590,0014,520,000:4,520,0015,210,000 4 :5,210,0015930,000 5 :5930,0016,640,000 6 :66400017,470,000 7 :7,470,001 8,400,000 8 8,400,0019,580,000 9 :95,800,00111,520,000 10 :11,520,001 21
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 2 u t u t E [ u u t t 1 ] 0 u = ρ u t + ε 1 t ε t σ 2 2 E[ ε t ] = 0 E [ ε 2 ] t = σ E[ ε tε s ] = 0 2 u u t u t 1 ρσ ρ u x 22
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 x j 2 2 E u ] = σ u [ j j x 23
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 log( LPR) = α 0 + α1 log( UNE) + α 2 log( RW ) + α 3DUMMY1+ α 4DUMMY 2 LPR UNE RW DUMMY1 DUMMY2 24
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 25
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 26
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 t 1 2001 1987 2005 1987 2005 1987 2005 1987 2005 35 38 20 27
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 t 28
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 29
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 5 EITC t 9.8 2.399 0.135 0.207 25 29 30 34 0.128 25 29 1.09630 34 0.338 30
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 18 31
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 1,000 3,299,000 10 330 8,999,000 2033 t 32
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 33
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 34
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 6 35
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 36
1 th 1 th Dec.2006 37