1979 1994 1998 WTO 2004 1 1. 1 1 1930, p.17 23
2 2. 1971, p.3 1912 49 1930,, p.12 1986, p.145 1930, pp.302-305 24
1951, p.517 1949 1999, p.302 1970 3. Besley Coate and Loury 1993, pp.792-794 ROSCs Rotating Saving and Credit ssociations 1930 30 1930 1935 1935, p.2 1930, p.4, p.306 1992 1999 1987 1996 25
1987, pp.103-106 1999, pp.250-259 1996, pp.54-77 1930 1992, pp.2-17, p.18 1987 2001 11 14 5 6 26
1980 1 1970 2001, pp.29-58 2001 739 GDP 932 GDP 12,637 GDP GDP 1 2004 1970 76 85 8 50 10 100 1987, pp.103-106 80 85 3 88 3 1989, pp.85-86 1987, p.110 1984 1,300 4 5,200 34 6 1984 17,178 27
1 GDP GDP GDP 1978 3,624.1 13.2 1.3 379.0 238.0 158.0 21.9 8.0 40.5 1979 4,038.2 15.0 1.7 417.0 265.0 200.0 28.8 13.0 43.0 1980 4,517.8 18.0 2.0 460.0 312.0 231.0 40.5 19.0 52.2 1981 4,862.4 19.2 2.5 489.0 327.0 283.0 52.3 24.0 67.3 1982 5,294.7 21.4 3.1 526.0 358.0 344.0 66.4 31.0 87.6 1983 5,934.5 24.3 3.1 582.0 401.0 332.0 86.6 41.0 105.3 1984 7,171.0 30.2 3.9 695.0 490.0 412.0 116.4 51.0 145.9 1985 8,964.4 37.8 4.0 855.0 605.0 420.0 153.3 57.0 181.3 1986 10,202.2 44.9 5.4 956.0 710.0 553.0 208.1 94.0 229.2 1987 11,962.5 55.0 6.7 1,103.0 859.0 675.0 281.2 118.0 264.1 1988 14,928.3 69.2 9.1 1,355.0 1,067.0 896.0 342.4 145.0 243.0 1989 16,909.2 72.8 11.7 1,512.0 1,110.0 1,136.0 456.7 302.0 276.2 1990 18,547.9 77.9 13.3 1,634.0 1,174.0 1,271.0 625.2 466.0 508.3 1991 21,617.8 92.9 17.0 1,879.0 1,387.0 1,566.0 786.3 618.0 819.2 1992 26,638.1 126.9 22.5 2,287.0 1,877.0 2,065.0 985.3 816.0 1,039.8 1993 34,634.4 196.5 44.0 2,939.0 2,880.0 3,981.0 1,245.6 997.0 1,113.9 1994 46,759.4 296.8 67.0 3,923.0 4,286.0 5,973.0 1,795.5 1,427.0 1,635.3 1995 58,478.1 403.6 90.3 4,854.0 5,806.0 7,873.0 2,449.0 2,035.0 2,449.3 1996 67,884.6 510.1 117.3 5,576.0 7,242.0 10,086.0 3,147.4 2,833.0 3,260.8 1997 74,462.6 605.8 143.0 6,054.0 8,553.0 12,181.0 3,743.5 3,610.0 4,118.3 1998 78,345.2 677.2 160.0 6,307.0 9,494.0 13,512.0 4,279.1 4,498.0 5,921.9 1999 82,067.5 732.5 179.4 6,547.0 10,149.9 15,070.8 4,739.9 5,260.2 6,911.6 2000 89,442.2 828.1 196.6 7,084.0 11,248.3 16,453.5 5,075.8 6,304.5 6,253.4 2001 95,933.3 932.1 208.6 7,543.0 12,637.0 17,368.1 5,779.5 7,887.8 6,998.9 2002 1999 1980 99 10 600 700 1996 p.236 2 1970 28
1 1 2 1981 2 1 10 11 10,500 2 1,500 11 600 100 2 1,500 100 600 10,500 1981 7 1 1986 2 1 10 1 1 1 500 1 2 2 3 11 J 2 1 1,500 1,400 700 600 10,500 2 1,500 10 15,000 3 600 10 6,000 1 1 500 10 5 6 0 1 3 11 10 15,000 10,500 15,000 4,500 10 6,000 4,500 29
1 81.2.1 10,500 0 2 1,500 81.7.1 15,000-2.94 3 1,400 82.2.1 14,000-3.21 4 1,300 82.7.1 13,000-3.75 5 1,200 83.2.1 12,000-5.95 6 1,100 83.7.1 11,000-3.33 7 1,000 84.2.1 10,000 0.93 8 900 84.7.1 9,000 1.63 9 800 85.2.1 8,000 1.95 10 700 85.7.1 7,000 2.14 11 600 86.2.1 6,000 2.27 [1994], p.101 [1999], p.253 10,500 1,500 600 5 1 5 10 ( i= 1 E 3 11 [ 1+ ( i 1) r] E [ 1+ ( 11 ) r] = 10,500[ 1+ ( 11 ) r] 2 1980 4 3 32 33 33 1982 8 10 1985 4 10 2 9 1982 8 10 32 30 960 30 30
7 1983 3 10 1,013.35 30 1982 8 10 1983 2 10 1 30 1983 4 10 1985 4 10 30 12.30 1 42.30 C D F G 1 82.08.10 0 960 960 0.00 2 1 82.09.10 12.5 960 1,347.50-4.29 3 2 82.10.10 5.8 972.5 1,134.00-1.38 4 3 82.11.10 7.26 978.3 1,170.54-1.46 5 4 82.12.10 8.1 985.56 1,186.80-2.11 6 5 83.01.10 12.5 993.66 1,297.50-4.10 7 6 83.02.10 7.19 1,006.16 1,146.94-1.61 8 7 83.03.10 12.3 1,013.35 1,267.50-3.95 9 8 83.04.10 7.8 1,025.65 1,147.20-1.66 10 9 83.05.10 12.8 1,033.45 1,254.40-4.11 11 10 83.06.10 15.61 1,046.25 1,303.42-6.08 12 11 83.07.10 13.1 1,061.86 1,235.10-3.99 13 12 83.08.10 7.1 1,074.96 1,102.00-0.55 14 13 83.09.10 7.7 1,082.06 1,106.30-0.61 15 14 83.10.10 14.81 1,089.76 1,226.58-6.68 16 15 83.11.10 12.05 1,104.57 1,164.85-3.45 17 16 83.12.10 12.2 1,116.62 1,155.20-3.70 18 17 84.01.10 5.13 1,128.82 1,036.95 9.15 19 18 84.02.10 9.15 1,133.95 1,088.10 12.15 20 19 84.03.10 17.3 1,143.10 1,184.90-2.16 21 20 84.04.10 7.78 1,160.40 1,053.36 5.17 22 21 84.05.10 16.1 1,168.18 1,137.10 0.88 23 22 84.06.10 7.82 1,184.28 1,038.20 3.61 24 23 84.07.10 9 1,192.10 1,041.00 2.93 25 24 84.08.10 11.5 1,201.10 1,052.00 2.36 26 25 84.09.10 9.1 1,212.60 1,023.70 2.58 27 26 84.10.10 6.51 1,221.70 999.06 2.64 28 27 84.11.10 7.5 1,228.21 997.5 2.40 29 28 84.12.10 8.3 1,235.71 993.2 2.24 30 29 85.01.10 8.3 1,244.01 984.9 2.15 31 30 85.02.10 7.2 1,252.31 974.4 2.09 32 31 85.03.10 17 1,259.51 977 1.94 33 32 85.04.10 0 1,276.51 960 2.00 33 33 316.51 36,747.20 36,747.20 [1994], p. 101 [1999], p.253 E 30 H F G 1 i= 1 33 [ ( 33 i) r] + E [ 1+ ( 33 i) r] = F [ 1+ ( 33 ) r] 30 1+ i= + 1 31
1 1 3 a E a a 30 a a 30 32 D a 3 E = 30 + 1 D 1 D i i= 1 F 30 33 1 2 ( 33 ) D + 30( 33 1) G 3 = G D F 1998 2001 9 4 9 1 6 6 1 1 GDP GDP 32
GDP 1994 1993 1998 1995 GDP 2001 GDP 1.7 2.3 1.4 1.2 ( 1 10 20 30 96.11.10 98.5.20 56 50 2,032 2,750 2 10 20 30 97.10.30 99.5.10 56 50 2,038 2,750 3 15 30 96.11.30 98.01.15 28 300 5,914 8,100 4 15 30 96.12.15 98.03.30 31 200 4,120 6,000 5 10 25 97.02.10 98.11.10 43 100 3,000 4,200 6 10 25 97.02.10 98.03.10 27 200 3,656 5,200 7 05 20 97.03.05 98.02.05 23 300 5,084 6,600 8 10 25 97.03.10 98.11.10 41 100 2,738 4,000 2002, p.174 2002, p.252 2002 33
1986 100 30 28 1 1 1986 3,000 1 1 3,000 30 9 1986 1 5,470 1999, p.35 6 1984 84 85 87 1 82 21 112 1996 p.69-72 1988 1990 2 34
1 5 15 5 1 3 1 2 100 4 82 100 18 282 3 0 1 4 100 0 400 4 4 400 1 1 5 100 ( 0 1 2 3 4 ( ) 0 0 400 0 100 100 100 100 400 1 1 240 0 0 80 80 80 240 20 2 2 266 0 100 0 83 83 266 17 3 3 282 0 100 100 0 82 282 18 4 4 400 400 0 0 0 0 400 1,588 400 300 280 263 345 1,588 1 1 1.25 1.05 0.93 0.86 6 1996 9 1997 11 5 c 3 4 6 8 12 5 8 1996 9 5 1 42 100 4,200 1997 11 5 4,200 42 100 100 1 1 35
6 (100 B C D ( F G J 0 96.09.05 0 4,200 4,200.00 0.00 1 96.09.15 20 3,280 4,100.00-5.10 2 96.09.25 17 3,420 4,080.00-3.86 3 96.10.05 18 3,398 4,063.00-4.19 4 96.10.15 16 3,492 4,045.00-3.43 5 96.10.25 18 3,434 4,029.00-4.82 6 96.11.05 17 3,488 4,011.00-3.71 7 96.11.15 17 3,505 3,994.00-3.68 8 96.11.25 17 3,522 3,977.00-3.65 9 96.12.05 17 3,539 3,960.00-3.61 10 96.12.15 18 3,524 3,943.00-4.00 11 96.12.25 18 3,542 3,925.00-3.97 12 97.01.05 19 3,530 3,907.00-5.03 13 97.01.15 15 3,665 3,888.00-2.54 14 97.01.25 17 3,624 3,873.00-3.42 15 97.02.05 17 3,641 3,856.00-3.38 16 97.02.15 15 3,710 3,839.00-2.20 17 97.02.25 12 3,800 3,824.00-0.51 18 97.03.05 15 3,740 3,812.00-2.38 19 97.03.15 14 3,778 3,797.00-0.64 20 97.03.25 15 3,770 3,783.00-0.76 21 97.04.05 17 3,743 3,768.00-7.49 22 97.04.15 14 3,820 3,751.00 21.90 23 97.04.25 15 3,815 3,737.00 5.00 24 97.05.05 14 3,848 3,722.00 4.90 25 97.05.15 14 3,862 3,708.00 4.13 26 97.05.25 14 3,876 3,694.00 3.72 27 97.06.05 14.5 3,883 3,680.00 3.31 28 97.06.15 15 3,890 3,665.50 3.06 29 97.06.25 14 3,918 3,650.50 3.16 30 97.07.05 13.5 3,938 3,636.50 3.12 31 97.07.15 14 3,946 3,623.00 2.96 32 97.07.25 11.2 3,988 3,609.00 3.14 33 97.08.05 14 3,974 3,597.80 2.80 34 97.08.15 14 3,988 3,583.80 2.74 35 97.08.25 13 4,009 3,569.80 2.74 36 97.09.05 11 4,034 3,556.80 2.76 37 97.09.15 9 4,055 3,545.80 2.73 38 97.09.25 10 4,060 3,536.80 2.62 39 97.10.05 75 3,875 3,526.80 1.62 40 97.10.15 85 3,930 3,451.80 2.10 41 97.10.25 20 4,080 3,366.80 2.97 42 97.11.05 0 4,200 3,446.80 2.97 11 32 43 162,333.50 162,333.50 3882.5 ( ) 100 K L 10 r 1 41 100(1 + 42r) + Ei[ 1+ ( 42 i) r] + 100[ 1+ ( 42 i) r] = F[ 1+ ( 42 ) r] i= 1 i= + 1 36
a 0 4 6 a a E = 100 D 4 F D = E ( 42 ) + 100( 1) 5 1 ( ) 42 + i= G = 100 6 E i 1 F G E 7 1 1993 1.5 1997, p.41 37
1 6 6 22 Besley et al. 1993 38
7 2 2001 25 1940 1986, p.145 1930 1980 6 2001 39
43 20 46.5 9 20.9 7 16.3 7 16.3 7 3 8 6 d c u u m l c a 6 1990 1980 86 ( d 19,851.0 17,544.0-2,307.0 c 20,003.0 17,430.0-2,573.0 u 10,652.4 12,124.0 1,471.6 b 11,631.0 10,933.0-698.0 m 7,074.8 7,942.0 867.2 l 7,416.0 7,724.0 308.0 h 7,462.5 7,658.0 195.5 a 8,300.0 7,480.0-820.0 e 7,712.0 7,465.0-247.0 g 7,695.0 7,351.0-344.0 y 3,446.8 4,200.0 753.2 v 3,556.8 4,034.0 477.2 r 3,609.0 3,988.0 379.0 1996 40
3 2 1981 2 1986 2 1 1.63 3.75 3 1982 8 1985 4 2 3 16 6 2 3 42 28 3 2 2 4,500 2.27 3 316.51 1.88 2 4 8 9 9 2004 1 2 1990, pp.11-13 2002, p.79 41
IFD 1990, p.155 a ( ( a ( ( 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 4.47 4.48 4.55 4.52 4.5 4.42 376.7 515.4 506.8 608.6 532.0 683.9 b 122.0 151.5 148.8 116.9 114.6 137.6 b/a 32.4% 29.4% 29.4% 19.2% 21.5% 20.1% c 254.7 363.9 358.0 491.7 417.4 546.4 /a 67.6% 70.6% 70.6% 80.8% 78.5% 79.9% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.35 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 1,195.22 1,507.82 1,716.03 1,505.24 1,753.76 2,038.27 b 145.55 219.8 382.9 203.1 238.6 425.9 b/a 0.122 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 c 1,028.00 1,226.00 1,293.81 1,259.00 1,500.00 1,556.00 /a 0.86 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 56.21 114.2 48.8 28.3 23.6 76.4 971.51 1,111.36 1,244.97 1,231.00 1,476.37 1,479.61 21.95 62.4 39.3 42.9 15.2 56.4 ( ) 1991 1993 1992 1994 a b c ( ) [2001]. 3 2004 42
1991, p.201 1970 10 43
11 1 2 3 4 E 5 6 6 7 8 3 0.69 5 0.78 [1987], p.103 [1999], pp.251-252 9 10 1971 Charles Philip Handoon-Cave positive non-interventionism or active non-interventionism 44
[2001], pp.35 36 11 GB Grameen Bank MFI: Micro Finance Institutions 5 1 [2001], pp.159 160 [2000], pp.30 38 1930 1990 31 6 7 pp.6-21 1992 ROSC 15 pp.1-18 2002 43 1 pp.2-24 2001 1930 1935 2002 pp.73-96 1991 pp.179-221 1951 1971 2001 9 2 pp.75-95 2004 96 4 1992 33 9 pp.2-19 2001 45
pp.147-170 1990 31 6/7 pp.143-160 2001, 1999 2000 2000 1996 1999 1986 1936 82 1985 1999 1949-1998 2002 1992 1996 1987 1987 8 2002 No.3 1989 2002 1600 http://cn.news.yahoo.com/020616/83/14azd, html 炜 1994 1978-1990 1935 1987 1999 1978 1998 46
1998 1986 1986 11 pp.30-32 1986 11 pp.139-141 1990 1989 1989 1 28 1989 2 2001 1992 1986 1990 1997 Besley, Timothy., Coate, Stephen. nd Loury, Glenn. 1993, The economics of rotating saving and credit associations, The merican Economic Review 83 4, Septmber. Geertz, Clifford 1962, The rotating credit association: middle rung in development, Economic Development and Cultural Change 10 3. 47