211 1 211 4 www.gold.org 211 1 1 1 2.4 2 6 12 18 24 London PM fix 211 1 2.4 3 31 1,439. / 3 1 28 211 1 ETF 3 4 OTC Juan Carlos Artigas juancarlos.artigas@gold.org Johan Palmberg johan.palmberg@gold.org Eily Ong eily.ong@gold.org Louise Street louise.street@gold.org Marcus Grubb, marcus.grubb@gold.org 211 1 2 211 1 21 211 4 Gold Investment Digest First Quarter 211 http://www.gold.org
211 1 2.4 1,439 / 2 6.2 21 4 1,366.78 / 211 1 1.4 1,386.27 / 1 1 1 29 1,319. / 3 4 1 5.6 1 1 4.9 1 2 FRB 3 4 1: London PM fix US$/oz 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 3/28 9/28 3/29 9/28 3/21 9/21 3/211 Source: LBMA 211 1
211 1.8 1.9 4.3 1 ECB 211 1 7 1 21 2.2 211 1 3.7 119,192.37 / 3 1 G7 211 1 2 1 6.5 5.6 MSCI 2 5.7 1: - Last price 31 Mar 211 211 max 211 min QoQ YoY Vol* US$/oz 1,439. 1,447. 1,319. 2.4 29. 14.9 GBP/oz 895.79 897.36 822.24-1.9 22. 16.2 EUR/oz 1,14.9 1,59.45 963.25-4.3 23. 16.9 CHF/oz 1,317.84 1,34.61 1,242.63.1 12.4 15.6 JPY/oz 119,192.37 119,192.37 18,165.6 3.7 14.4 16.6 CAD/oz 1,395.54 1,413. 1,314.72 -.8 23.2 16.6 AUD/oz 1,389.13 1,431.52 1,38.25.1 14.3 17.2 *Annualised volatility based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council 2: 211 1 15 1 5-5 -1 Gold (US$/oz) BarCap US Tsy Agg BarCap Global Tsy ex US J.P. Morgan GBI J.P. Morgan EMBIG S&P 5 MSCI Europe Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Index BSE Sensex 3 S&P GSCI Note: For comparison purposes, gold performance was computed using 5pm EST prices. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, J.P. Morgan 2_33
2 4.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1 2 / 62,2 / 29 / 7 4.8 2 JP EMBIG 1 1 (Hang Seng Index) 1 2.3 BSE Sensex3 4.5 2: Last price 31 Mar 211 211 max 211 min QoQ YoY Vol* RUB/oz 4,889.55 42,488.1 39,51.81-4.8 24.6 16.2 TRY/oz 2,221.2 2,32.67 2,78.35 1.7 31. 17.2 CNY/oz 9,423.44 9,487.69 8,7.12 1.6 23.7 14.5 INR/oz 64,161.41 64,767.72 6,364.4 1.8 28. 14.8 ZAR/oz 9,741.9 1,43.87 9,172.44 4. 2.2 16.2 *Annualised volatility based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council 211 1 3 1 67 S&P GSCI 1 14.8 DJ-UBS 4.4 28 24.3 1 117.25 / 3 / 1 23.6 35 / 4 1983 1 17.4 1 3.5 4.7 4.8 3: QoQ YoY Vol* Gold London PM fix (US$/oz) 2.4 29. 13. Silver London fix (US$/oz) 23.6 116.4 39.9 Palladium (US$/oz) -4.8 59.1 31.8 Platinum (US$/oz) -.1 7.6 18.3 Aluminum (US$/t) 5.7 13.6 17.6 Copper (US$/t) -3.5 2. 26.3 Lead (US$/t) 5.1 28.3 38.8 Nickel (US$/t) 4.5 4.6 31.3 Tin (US$/t) 17.4 72.4 28.1 Zinc (US$/t) -4.7-1.8 26.6 Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) 24.3 44.2 28.8 S&P GS Commodity Index 14.8 36.9 18.6 S&P GS Agriculture Index 4. 7. 28.3 S&P GS Livestock Index 7.4 1.9 15.8 DJ-UBS Commodity Index 4.4 28.5 15.8 R/J CRB Commodity Index 8. 31.7 15.9 *Annualised volatility during Q1 211 based on daily returns. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 211 1
211 1 1 VIX 3 1 1 1 211 1 13 2 15.8 22 3 12.9 1 211 1 1 4 S&P GSCI 1 18.6 13 39.9 3 1 28.8 25 3: S&P GSCI 22 VIX 9 8 Index level 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 4/28 7/28 1/28 1/29 4/29 7/29 1/29 1/21 4/21 7/21 1/21 1/211 Gold (US$/oz, lhs) S&P GSCI (lhs) VIX Index (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 4: 211 1 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Gold London PM fix (US$/oz) S&P GS Livestock Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index R/J CRB Commodity Index Aluminum (US$/t) Platinum (US$/oz) Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, World Gold Council S&P GS Commodity Index Copper (US$/t) Zinc (US$/t) Tin (US$/t) S&P GS Agriculture Index Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) Nickel (US$/t) Palladium (US$/oz) Lead (US$/t) Silver London fix (US$/oz) 1 VIX S&P5 4_55
211 1 ETF ETF 1 1 ETF ETF 211 1 ETF ETF 1 ETF 2,11.3 976 5 NYSE SPDR GLD 211 1 69.5 1 ETFS Physical Gold Shares GBS 7.6 8. NYSE ishares Gold Trust IAU Julius Baer Physical Gold UBS Index Solutions-Gold ETF 7.6 6.5 4.8 ETF 211 1 ETF 211 1
5: ETF Tonnes 2,5 US$/oz 1,5 2, 1,26 1,5 1,2 1, 78 5 54 3 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Gold price (US$/oz, rhs) GBS (ASX) GBS (LSE) NewGold (JSE) GLD (NYSE) IAU (Amex) ZKB Gold ETF (SWX) GOLDIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) ETFS Physical Gold (LSE) XETRA-Gold (DB) Julius Baer Physical Gold (SWX) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSE) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (LSE) Source Gold ETC (London) UBS Index Solutions- Gold ETF (SWX) db Gold ETC (DB) CS II Gold ETF (SWX) RBS Physical Gold (DB) Dubai Gold Securities Note: Gold holdings are as reported by the ETF/ETC issuers. Where data is unavailable, holdings have been calculated using reported AUM numbers. Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, Respective ETF/ETC providers, World Gold Council 6_7
ETF ETF GLD SPDRETF 1 GLD 1 1 234,724 21 1 28,131 1 1 21 17 211 21 4 GLD 6 1 3 13.4 GLD 3 ATM 21 12 2.3 3 15.7 3 3 1 2 3 1 1 COMEX 211 1 1 2,24 698.8 21 2,63 3 2,4 6 7 OTC OTC OTC LBMA 21 21 1 22 1 3 1 OTC 67 2,11 LBMA 211 1 OTC ETF 1 8 1 261 2 ETF OTC 3 211 1
6: COMEX * Million oz 4 US$/oz 1,5 35 1,375 3 1,25 25 1,125 2 1, 15 875 1 75 5 625 27 28 29 21 211 Gold active net-long positions (million oz, lhs) Gold (US$/oz, rhs) *Net long non-commercial and non-reportable contracts. Source: Bloomberg, COMEX, World Gold Council 5 7: 6 4 2-2 -4-6 26 27 28 29 21 Producer net long Money manager net long Swap dealer net long Other net long Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 8_9
21 4 236.6 211 1 278.5 1 1,424.6 ICBC GAP 1 1 4.2 8 2 BOT Gold Passbook 2 6 2 211 1 Gold Passbook 211 1 14 +13.9 2 9 1 211 1 2 3 9.3 8 8: * oz 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 1-oz coin sales Total sales *Total sales include one, half, quarter and tenth ounce coins. Source: The United States Mint 2 Gold Passbook 1997 211 1
LIBOR GOFO 28 29 LIBOR 23 12 211 1 3 -.5 9 1 2 -.65 -.56 6 12.4.25 1 GOFO 1 2.5.3 1 9: 3 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 1/27 7/27 1/28 7/28 1/29 7/29 1/21 7/21 Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 1_11
211 1 3 16 25 1 EU EU FRB 1 1 1 2 2 211 1
2 China gold report: Gold in the year of the tiger India: heart of gold 3 1 4 1 1: 1 Tonnes 1,2 Combined average share of global demand 2 in 1995 24: 24 Combined share of global demand 2 in 21: 4 1, 8 6 4 2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 India China 1 Includes jewellery and total bar and coin demand only (excludes ETFs and similar, and techology). 2 Global demand includes demand for jewellery, bars, coins, ETFs and similar, and technology. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 3 211 3 12_13
FRB CPI CPI 11 12 21 12 211 1 11.7 CPI 4 3 31 28 6 4 Inflation Revisionism The Economist 211 2 15 211 1
11: 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Europe UK US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, UK Office for National Statistics 12: CPI 25 2 15 1 5-5 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 China India Asia (all items) Source: China Economic Information Net, IMF, Press Information Bureau of India 14_1515
S&P GSCI DJ-UBS 3 7 Gold: A commodity like no other VaR 28 5 4 1 5 1 1,2 4 2 1 2 4 5 211 1
4: 1 Gold (US$/oz) MSCI US MSCI ex US BarCap US Agg JPM 3M Tbill S&P GSCI Light January 1991 to December 21 Portfolio 2 gold 5 gold 1 gold Return 6.8 7.1 4.1 6.9 4.3 3.2 6. 6.1 6.3 Volatility 15.6 17.2 17.8 3.9.3 15.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 Inf. ratio.43.41.23 1.74 13.23.21.67.71.74 5 VaR 3.39 3.74 3.53.85.1 3.9 1.67 1.65 1.67 Return 4.1-36.5-43.3 4.9 4.1-37.7-24.3-22.3-2.3 Volatility 31.3 34.9 39.6 5.6.5 36.9 2.5 19.4 18.4 Inf. ratio.13-1.5-1.9.87 8.28-1.2-1.19-1.15-1.1 5 VaR 7.96 7.88 9.27 1.15.3 1.38 5.17 4.77 4.26 Return 29.6 3.7 34.6 6.3 1.4 24.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 Volatility 18.4 25.4 26.6 4..1 22. 13.6 12.9 12.3 Inf. ratio 1.61 1.21 1.3 1.59 1.32 1.11 1.5 1.6 1.7 5 VaR 3.17 4.9 7.43.88.1 4.49 2.75 2.54 2.64 Return 29.5 13.2 6.2 6.5.5 17.1 9.4 9.9 1.5 Volatility 14.4 17.4 19.9 3.. 18.6 1.2 9.8 9.4 Inf. ratio 2.4.76.31 2.22 9.13.92.92 1.1 1.11 5 VaR 3.16 4.8 4.32.53. 3.78 2.31 2.24 2.26 1 Calculations are based on weekly total returns and converted to annualised return and volatility when applicable. 2 Portfolio using a 3 allocation to US equities, 2 to international equities, 39 to fixed income, 1 to cash and various allocations to gold and commodity indices. A gold allocation is equivalent to a 1 allocation to the S&P GSLE; 5 in gold implies 5 in S&P GSLE; and a 1 gold weight implies a allocation to S&P GSLE. Source: Barclays Capital, J.P. Morgan, MSCI, Standard & Poor s, World Gold Council 28 29 21 5: 1 Commodity Jewellery Demand Investment/ bars and coins Supply Technology/ industry Mine production Recycling Other sources Gold 49 41 2 1 3 6 4 - Silver 25 4 25 5 79 19 2 Copper 2 3 95 85 15 - Platinum 36 9 55 88 12-1 As of 29 except for gold for which 21 figures are available. 2 Includes net central bank activity which accounted for 2 of gold demand in 21. 3 Primarily used in electronics and other high-end technology uses. 4 Includes silverware. Source: GFMS, Johnson Matthey, International Copper Institute, The Silver Institute, US Geological Survey, World Gold Council 16_1717
21 4 211 1 211 5 Gold Demand Trends 21 21 21 211 1 21 17 2,6 21 811 29 555 1.5 13 21 2 1 2 21 14 29 69 33 746 1998 658 1 3,4 2 21 13.6 29 211 1 211 5 Gold Demand Trends 211 1 1 14 2 3 4 5 1 211 1 5 211 1
13: 1 Tonnes 9 US$bn 27 8 24 7 21 6 18 5 15 4 12 3 9 2 6 1 3 Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Tonnes (lhs) US$bn (rhs) Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 14: 21 29 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 India Hong Kong Russia China Saudi Arabia UAE Japan Vietnam Turkey Egypt US UK Taiwan Thailand South Korea Italy Indonesia Source: GFMS 18_19
21 373 42 12.4 28 29 4.6 +16 2 8.6 +12 3 52.7 49.8-5.5 211 1 211 2 21 4 211 1 211 5 21 4,18 29 2 29 21 21 15 2,332 21 2,543 9 16 1 29 252 21 116 136 21 21 125 21 1.2 1,672 1,653 21 211 1
15: Tonnes 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Source: GFMS Electronics Other industrial Dentistry 16: Tonnes 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Mine production Recycled gold Source: GFMS 2_21
211 1 1989 27 4 5 28 29 3 21 21 87 IMF 211 2 18 4 5 1 12 2 8 792 28 12 37 1 7 22 12 17 2 1 3 2 12 2.2 6 2 211 1
17: 45 US$mn 9, 4 8, 35 7, 3 6, 25 5, 2 4, 15 3, 1 2, 5 1, 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Gold as of total reserves (lhs) Foreign exchange reserves (US$mn, rhs) Source: IMF International Financial Statistics 6: 3 211 4 IFS 1 Tonnes of reserves 2 1 United States 8,133.5 74.8 2 Germany 3,41. 7.8 3 IMF 2,814. 3 4 Italy 2,451.8 69. 5 France 2,435.4 65.9 6 China 1,54.1 1.6 7 Switzerland 1,4.1 16.3 8 Russia 792.3 7.3 9 Japan 765.2 3.1 1 Netherlands 612.5 58.5 11 India 557.7 8.3 12 ECB 52.1 28.7 13 Taiwan 423.6 4.7 14 Portugal 382.5 82. 15 Venezuela 365.8 54. Tonnes of reserves 2 16 Saudi Arabia 322.9 3. 17 United Kingdom 31.3 16. 18 Lebanon 286.8 29. 19 Spain 281.6 39.2 2 Austria 28. 55.4 21 Belgium 227.5 37.4 22 Algeria 173.6 4.3 23 Philippines 153.6 1.3 24 Libya 143.8 6.1 25 Singapore 127.4 2.5 26 Sweden 125.7 11.6 27 South Africa 124.9 11.7 28 BIS 4 12. 3 29 Turkey 116.1 5.9 3 Greece 111.5 79.8 1 This table was updated in April, 211 and reports data available at that time. Data is taken from the International Monetary Fund s International Financial Statistics (IFS), April 211 edition, and other sources where applicable. IFS data is two months in arrears, so holdings are as of February 211 for most countries, January 211 or earlier for late reporters. The table does not list all gold holders: countries which have not reported their gold holdings to the IMF in the last six months are not included, while other countries are known to hold gold but they do not report their holdings publicly. Where the World Gold Council knows of movements that are not reported to the IMF, or misprints, changes have been made. The countries showing as having. tonnes of gold report some gold but less than.5 tonnes to the IMF. 2 The percentage share held in gold of total foreign reserves, as calculated by the World Gold Council. The value of gold holdings is calculated using the end of month London PM fix gold price published daily by the LBMA. In February, the end of month gold price was US$1,42.5. Data for the value of other reserves are taken from IFS, table Total Reserves minus Gold. 3 BIS and IMF balance sheets do not allow this percentage to be calculated. In the case of any countries, up-to-date data for other reserves are not available. 4 BIS data is updated each year from the BIS s annual report to reflect the Bank s gold investment assets excluding any gold held in connection with swap operations, under which the Bank exchanges currencies for physical gold. The bank has an obligation to return the gold at the end of the contract. Source: IMF, national data, World Gold Council 22_23
7: 21 1 21 4 Tonnes QoQ* YoY* Value ($bn) YoY* Jewellery 2,43 3 16 8,824 46 Identifiable investment 1,36 2-3 51,412 25 of which ETFs and similar products 338-13 -45 13,51-29 Industrial and dental 424 14 16,713 42 *Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year change in rolling four-quarter totals. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 8: 21 1 21 4 Tonnes QoQ* YoY* Value ($bn) YoY* Mining output 2,649 1 3 14,681 29 Net producer hedging -121 - - -4,879 - Total mine supply 2,528 4 9 99,83 38 Official sales -98 - - -3,544 - Recycled gold 1,75 4 2 67,538 3 *Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year change in rolling four-quarter totals. Source: GFMS, World Gold Council 9: Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Gold (US$/oz); London PM fix average 1,196.74 1,226.75 1,366.78 1,386.27 QoQ 7.9 2.5 11.4 1.4 YoY 29.8 27.8 24.3 25. Source: LBMA, World Gold Council 1: * 211 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 1-year Gold (US$/oz) 13.4 13. 15.7 15.2 *Annualised daily return volatility. Source: LBMA, World Gold Council 11: Value (US$ bn) Above ground stocks of gold 1 7,425.3 ETFs (as at 31 March 211) 2 97.6 Notional value of net long non-commercial and non-reportable positions as reported by CFTC gold futures (at 31 March 211) 34.1 1 Based on end-21 volume and Q1 211 average gold price. 2 Data: www.exchangetradedgold.com; www.etfsecurities.com; www.ishares.com; Zurich Kantonalbank; Finans Portföy; www.deutsche-boerse.com; www.juliusbaer.com. Source: CFTC, GFMS, LBMA, World Gold Council 211 1
12: 211 3 1 Gold (US$/oz) Trade-weighted US dollar Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) DJ-UBS Commodity Index BarCap US Treasury Aggregate BarCap US Credit Index S&P 5 MSCI World ex-us MSCI Europe (euro) NIKKEI (yen) Hang Seng (yuan) MSCI India (rupee) DJ/Wilshire REITs Index 1-month 1.5 -.9 4.7 2.1 -.1.. -2. -3.6-8.2 6.3 9.4 5.1 3-month 2. -3.7 26.9 6.2.2 1.4 5.9 4.5.1-4.6 5. -4.6 7.8 6-month 9.5-4.1 44. 2.9-2.8-1. 17.3 11.4 6.9 4.1 4.8-3.8 22. 1-year 28.7-6.4 44.2 28.5 4.5 7. 15.6 12.1 8. -12. 2.9 8.6 28.5 Volatility 2 (1-year) 15.1 7.4 28.2 16.6 4.9 5.5 17.9 18.8 19.2 25. 21.8 18.3 28.2 1 Performance computations in US$ unless otherwise noted. 2 Annualised daily return volatility. Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, IHS Global Insight, World Gold Council 13: 211 3 * Gold (US$/oz) Trade-weighted US dollar Brent crude oil (US$/bbl) S&P GS Commodity Index DJ-UBS Commodity Index BarCap 1-3 month T-bills BarCap US Treasury Aggregate BarCap US Credit Index BarCap US High Yield Index S&P 5 DJ Industrial Average MSCI World ex US DJ/Wilshire REITs Index Gold (US$/oz) 1. Trade-weighted US$ -.44 1. Brent crude oil (US$/bbl).35 -.49 1. S&P GS Commodity Index.33 -.59.94 1. DJ-UBS Commodity Index.37 -.65.82.94 1. BarCap 1-3 month T-bills.1.11 -.8 -.1 -.15 1. BarCap US Treasury Aggregate.4.2 -.34 -.35 -.33.1 1. BarCap US Credit Index -.8 -.22 -.8 -.3.2 -.12.64 1. BarCap US High Yield Index -.6 -.41.36.44.48 -.3 -.27.42 1. S&P 5.1 -.49.5.55.57 -.23 -.41.2.65 1. DJ Industrial Average -.3 -.43.45.51.52 -.21 -.41..62.98 1. MSCI World ex US.14 -.73.56.65.69 -.26 -.3.17.69.86.83 1. DJ/Wilshire REITs Index.4 -.36.36.39.41 -.9 -.37 -.2.51.78.74.63 1. *Correlations based on weekly returns in US$ unless otherwise noted. Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, IHS Global Insight, World Gold Council 24_25
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