THE ASSOCIATION FOR REAL ESTATE SECURITIZATION 45 2010 May-June
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4 ARES May-June 2010 ARES SPECIAL ARES SPECIAL
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ARES REPORT 14 ARES May-June 2010
15 ARES May-June 2010 ARES REPORT
ARES REPORT 16 ARES May-June 2010
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19 ARES May-June 2010 ARES REPORT
ARES REPORT 120 IPO 100 Total number 80 60 MARKET NAME OF REIT MARKET CAPITALISATIION LISTING (US$ MILLION) DATE AS OF END DEC 09 Thailand Sala @ Sathorn Property Fund 10-Aug-09 24.4 MFC-Strategic Storage Fund 11-Aug-09 18.2 101 Montri Storage Property Fund 14-Aug-09 17.9 TPARK Logistics Property Fund 16-Dec-09 47.4 40 20 0 Before 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: CBRE Research 20 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT ARES May-June 2010 21
ARES REPORT MARKET * CBRE changed the calculation methodology of average dividend yield from simple average to weighted average by market capitalisation in 1H 2008. Source: CBRE Research, Bloomberg STOCK MARKET INDEX STOCK INDEX CHANGE FROM END DEC 2008 NO. OF LISTED REITS AVG. DIVIDEND YIELD* 10-YR GOV'T BOND YIELD REIT MARKET CAP (US$ MILLION) Japan 10,546.44 5.90% 41 6.81% 1.30% 29,473 Singapore 2,897.62 24.19% 21 7.74% 2.66% 20,617 Hong Kong 21,872.50 19.01% 7 6.47% 2.58% 9,521 South Korea 1,682.77 21.06% 3 8.71% 5.39% 132 Taiwan 8,188.11 27.30% 8 4.11% 1.54% 1,800 Thailand 734.54 22.94% 26 9.30% 4.18% 1,972 Malaysia 1,272.78 18.37% 12 8.27% 4.25% 1,540 22 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT US$ (MILLION) COUNTRY CITY SECTOR PROPERTY EQUIVALENT BUYER Japan Tokyo Office 30% share in Shiodome Building 588 Japan Real Estate REIT Japan Various Cities Residential Park Axis Property Portfolio (18 Properties) 459 Nippon Accommodations Fund Inc Hong Kong Hong Kong Retail Metro Town 187 Fortune REIT Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Retail Starhill Gallery 187 Starhill Global REIT Japan Tokyo Office Sumitomo Shoji Nishikicho Building 137 TOP REIT Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Retail Lot 10 Shopping Centre 117 Starhill Global REIT Japan Tokyo Office Ryoshin Harajuku Building 90 Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation Singapore Singapore Office Prudential Tower (six storeys) 75 K-REIT Japan Chiba Industrial A warehouse in Chiba 58 Mapletree Logistics Trust Hong Kong Hong Kong Retail Caribbean Coast 55 Fortune REIT Hang Seng REIT Index 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan 09 Feb 09 Hang Seng REIT Index Hang Seng Index Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Hang Seng Index ARES May-June 2010 23
ARES REPORT NAME OF REIT DATE LISTED OFFER PRICE (HK$) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (HK$) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (HK$) 52-WEEK LOW (HK$) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) The Link REIT 25-Nov-05 10.300 19.82 19.83% 20.35 12.82 4.62% Prosperity REIT 16-Dec-05 2.160 1.33 25.47% 1.40 0.83 8.51% GZI REIT 21-Dec-05 3.075 2.94 16.67% 3.06 1.63 8.17% Champion REIT 24-May-06 5.100 3.30 29.92% 3.39 1.54 8.18% Sunlight REIT 21-Dec-06 2.600 1.92 26.32% 2.06 1.13 12.79% Regal REIT 30-Mar-07 2.680 1.65 47.32% 1.70 0.84 10.28% RREEF CCT REIT 22-Jun-07 5.150 3.24 20.00% 3.63 2.05 10.00% 24 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT 30 Jun 08 = 100 180 A-REIT CapitaMall rust T 160 Straits Times Index 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 ARES May-June 2010 25
ARES REPORT NAME OF REIT DATE LISTED OFFER PRICE (S$) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (S$) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (S$) 52-WEEK LOW (S$) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) CapitaMall Trust 17-Jul-02 0.96 1.800 28.57% 1.890 0.935 5.61% Ascendas REIT 19-Nov-02 0.88 2.220 39.62% 2.240 1.008 6.48% Fortune REIT 12-Aug-03 HK$4.75 HK$3.130-16.31% 3.403 1.637 12.53% CapitaCommercial Trust 11-May-04 1.00 1.170 42.68% 1.230 0.440 6.74% Suntec REIT 9-Dec-04 1.00 1.350 56.98% 1.380 0.476 8.65% Mapletree Logistics Trust 28-Jul-05 0.68 0.785 41.44% 0.785 0.317 7.50% Starhill Global REIT 20-Sep-05 0.98 0.525-17.32% 0.630 0.297 12.51% Frasers Commercial Trust 30-Mar-06 1.00 0.140-41.67% 0.205 0.072 20.79% Ascott Residence Trust 31-Mar-06 0.68 1.200 76.47% 1.230 0.350 5.97% K-REIT Asia 28-Apr-06 1.04 1.100 12.82% 1.120 0.430 9.44% Frasers Centrepoint Trust 5-Jul-06 1.03 1.400 61.85% 1.400 0.550 5.36% CDL Hospitality Trusts 19-Jul-06 0.83 1.750 110.84% 1.750 0.415 4.40% Cambridge Industrial Trust 25-Jul-06 0.68 0.450 28.57% 0.475 0.210 11.90% CapitaRetail China Trust 8-Dec-06 1.13 1.280 19.63% 1.500 0.585 8.11% First Real Estate Investment Trust 11-Dec-06 0.71 0.815 29.37% 0.820 0.400 9.37% AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT 19-Apr-07 1.20 0.215-34.85% 0.290 0.129 33.56% Ascendas India Trust 1-Aug-07 1.18 0.980 42.03% 0.985 0.465 8.14% Parkway Life REIT 23-Aug-07 1.28 1.220 31.89% 1.260 0.680 5.94% Saizen REIT 9-Nov-07 1.00 0.150 15.38% 0.170 0.066 -* Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust 19-Nov-07 0.80 0.505 42.25% 0.515 0.155 8.28% Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust 11-Jun-08 1.00 0.260-1.89% 0.351 0.144 -** * Saizen stopped paying dividend in the second quarter of 2009 and may resume distribution until June 2010. ** No distributions have been declared by Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust in 2009. 26 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT 30 Jun 08 = 100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 09 Feb 09 Fubon No.1 REIT Cathay No.1 REIT TAIEX Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 ARES May-June 2010 27
ARES REPORT NAME OF REIT DATE LISTED OFFER PRICE (NT$) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (NT$) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (NT$) 52-WEEK LOW (NT$) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) Fubon No. 1 REIT 10-Mar-05 10.00 11.20 4.87% 11.30 9.20 3.96% Cathay No.1 REIT 3-Oct-05 10.00 11.06 7.07% 11.10 9.13 4.33% Shin Kong No.1 REIT 26-Dec-05 10.00 9.99 3.20% 10.10 7.80 3.92% Fubon No. 2 REIT 13-Apr-06 10.00 10.47 3.15% 10.79 8.31 3.79% Trident REIT 26-Jun-06 10.00 8.30 14.01% 8.30 5.40 4.48% Kee Tai Star REIT 14-Aug-06 10.00 8.19 30.83% 8.19 4.65 4.14% Cathay No.2 REIT 13-Oct-06 10.00 10.99 10.45% 11.66 8.28 3.80% Gallop No.1 REIT 15-May-07 10.00 8.18 10.54% 8.45 6.70 5.08% 28 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT 30 Jun 08 = 100 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 09 Feb 09 KOCREF 7 KOCREF 8 KOSPI Composite Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 NAME OF REIT DATE LISTED OFFER PRICE (KRW) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (KRW) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (KRW) 52-WEEK LOW (KRW) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) KOCREF 7 11-Nov-05 5,000 6,230 1.47% 7,000 5,100 9.65% KOCREF 8 15-Jun-06 5,000 5,770 7.05% 6,380 4,200 7.40% KR2 8-May-08 5,000 5,220 4.61% 6,020 3,625 - ARES May-June 2010 29
ARES REPORT NAME OF REIT DATE LISTED OFFER PRICE (THB) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (THB) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (THB) 52-WEEK LOW (THB) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) UOB Apartment Property Fund I 29-Oct-03 10.00 4.84 5.68% 5.80 3.90 4.89% Bangkok Commercial Property Fund 19-Nov-03 10.00 9.00 8.43% 9.05 7.35 7.78% Millionaire Property Fund 08-Mar-05 10.00 11.20-2.61% 12.30 11.00 8.39% Ticon Property Fund 12-May-05 10.00 10.30 21.18% 10.40 7.80 7.86% Thai Industrial Fund 1 29-Jun-05 10.00 7.55 9.42% 9.35 6.75 7.75% MFC-Nichada Thani Property Fund 11-Aug-05 10.00 9.60-4.00% 10.50 9.40 7.40% CPN Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund 23-Aug-05 10.00 9.25 2.78% 9.30 6.71 10.53% Baan Sansiri Property Fund 26-Sep-05 10.00 9.90 3.13% 10.00 6.90 7.35% Samui Airport Property Fund 24-Nov-06 10.00 8.35 18.44% 8.60 4.96 10.40% T.U. Dome Residential Complex Property Fund 06-Dec-06 10.00 9.50-3.06% 10.00 8.30 1.77% Future Park Property Fund 07-Dec-06 10.00 9.70 8.99% 9.70 8.30 10.32% Quality Houses Property Fund 12-Dec-06 10.00 8.20 24.24% 8.30 5.70 9.70% JC Property Fund 05-Jan-07 10.00 10.00 0.00% 6.50 5.00 6.00% Gold Property Fund (Leasehold) 22-May-07 10.00 7.60 2.70% 9.60 6.10 9.76% Major Cineplex Lifestyle Leasehold Property Fund 18-Jul-07 10.00 8.65 5.49% 9.45 6.45 10.60% Urabana Property Fund (Leasehold) 18-Oct-07 10.00 7.55 14.39% 10.10 6.50 11.94% Property Perfect Property Fund 20-Mar-08 10.00 10.10 0.00% 10.10 9.05 8.32% Quality Hospitality Leasehold Property Fund 03-Apr-08 10.00 7.10 5.97% 9.65 6.50 10.85% Luxury Real Estate Investment Fund 29-Apr-08 10.00 8.50-2.30% 9.70 8.00 7.76% Multi-National Residence Fund 19-Jun-08 10.00 9.70-2.02% 10.00 9.50 7.94% Centara Hotels & Resorts Leasehold Property Fund 13-Oct-08 10.00 7.90 0.64% 9.10 7.70 9.23% Nichada Thani Property Fund 2 31-Mar-09 10.00 10.00 1.01% 10.10 9.90 4.96% Sala @ Sathorn Property Fund 10-Aug-09 10.00 4.86-51.40%^ 9.10 4.74 - MFC-Strategic Storage Fund 11-Aug-09 10.00 10.00 0.00%^ 10.50 9.95 7.04%* 101 Montri Storage Property Fund 14-Aug-09 10.00 9.90-1.00%^ 10.40 9.85 - TPARK Logistics Property Fund 16-Dec-09 10.00 10.30 3.00%^ 10.30 10.00 - * Annualized distribution yield ^ Change over offer price 30 ARES May-June 2010
ARES REPORT ARES May-June 2010 31
ARES REPORT NAME OF REIT Amanah Harta Tanah PNB DATE LISTED 28-Dec-90 OFFER PRICE (RM) CLOSING PRICE 31 DEC 09 (RM) % CHANGE SINCE JUN 09 52-WEEK HIGH (RM) 52-WEEK LOW (RM) DISTRIBUTION YIELD (DEC 09) N/A 0.915 6.40% 0.935 0.705 7.38% Axis-REIT 3-Aug-05 1.25 1.930 28.67% 2.070 1.150 7.71% Starhill REIT 16-Dec-05 0.96 0.855 3.01% 0.920 0.725 8.09% UOA REIT 30-Dec-05 1.15 1.280 9.40% 1.330 0.910 9.14% Tower REIT 12-Apr-06 1.07 1.140 11.76% 1.180 0.875 8.20% Al-Aqar KPJ REIT 10-Aug-06 0.95 0.985 7.07% 1.010 0.825 8.53% Hektar REIT 4-Dec-06 1.05 1.120 24.44% 1.140 0.780 9.11% Amfirst REIT 20-Dec-06 1.00 1.040 16.85% 1.080 0.780 8.99% Quill Capita Trust 8-Jan-07 0.84 1.080 15.51% 1.100 0.800 7.34% Al-Hadharah Boustead REIT 8-Feb-07 0.99 1.300 11.11% 1.390 1.000 8.48% Amanahraya REIT 26-Feb-07 0.895 0.855 19.58% 0.900 0.675 8.02% Atrium REIT 26-Mar-07 1.05 0.920 39.39% 0.925 0.605 7.39% 32 ARES May-June 2010
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α = γ + γ CRER i β = γ + γ CRER i 0 0 1 1 i i + γ LEV + γ ln SIZE 2 i + γ LEV + γ ln SIZE 2 i 3 3 i i + η i + η i 88 May-June 2010
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