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1 Sakamoto a b AGI Industrial Structure of the Prefectural Economy in Kyushu Area in Japan: Trend and Future Prediction 56th European Regional Science Association Congress
2 SZ i S j Z SD metrics Sakamoto 2011 SD = z ( ) 2 SZ i S j Z 2 1 Z SZ i S j Z , ,000 2 SD SZ i S j Z SD SD SD SD 2 t 2.2 F t t 1 N F t+1 F t 2 F t+1 = F t M t 2 M t transition matrix M t s 1 F t+s = F t M t M t+1 = F t i=0 M t+i 3 M t
3 3 M t = a t,11 a t,12 a t,13 a t,21 a t,22 a t,23 a t,31 a t,32 a t,33 4 F t = (b t,1, b t,2, b t,3 ) F t+1 = (b t+1,1, b t+1,2, b t+1,3 ) 2 b t+1,1 b t+1,2 b t+1,3 = b t,1 a t,11 + b t,2 a t,21 + b t,3 a t,31 b t,2 a t,12 + b t,2 a t,22 + b t,3 a t,32 b t,3 a t,13 + b t,2 a t,23 + b t,3 a t, a t, jk a t, jk a t, jk n n ( ) 2 at, jk i jk j=1 k=1 b t+1,k = g t n ( ) bt, j a t, jk, k, j=1 n a t, jk = 1, j, k=1 g t = / n n b t+1, j j=1 j=1 b t, j 6 i jk I g t a t, jk M t 3 1 n M t 36
4 1 a001 i002 i003 i004 s005 s006 s007 s008 s009 s010 g011 n012 ii01 ii02 ii03 ii04 ii05 ii06 ii07 ii08 ii09 ii10 ii11 ii12 ii13 GRP M M = s (ω t M t ) 7 t=1 ω t = GRP t / s u=1 GRP u 8 M 2 F t+1 = F t M
5 1 GRP Gross Regional Product GRP
6 1 GRP GRP SD SD a001 i i s006 s010 3 SD SD
7 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD
8 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD
9 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD
10 25 24 g SD ii01ii ii ii13 6 SD GRP m GRP m
11 ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD
12 6 SD SD SD SD 2012 SD SD ± ± SD SD SD
13 m m m m2 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD SD m m m m2 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD SD m GRP m GRP 46
14 m m m m2 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD SD m m m m2 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD SD m m m m2 a i i i s s s s s s g n SD SD
15 ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD SD ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD SD ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii ii SD SD
16 10 SD s ± ± SD 49
17 11 SD m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m ± SD Share Difference 2 Integrated Square Error ISE 50
18 Sakamoto, H. (2011) Provincial Economic Growth and Industrial Structure in China: An Index Approach, Regional Science Policy & Practice, 3(4), pp Sakamoto, H. (2012) Forecasting Model of Structural Change in Japan using Markov Chain,, SMS a ICSEAD b 23 2pp pp χ 2 JGSS JGSS 3 pp
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