科学雑誌金田古田
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1 4 1 2 petroleum
2
3 [Buckley,2003,introduction] 1973 oil crisis [,2005,106]
4 %
5 [Sheehan,2005,65] [, 2008 ]
6 [Sheehan,2005,65] 80 [NHK, 1996 cf.,cooper,2011 cf.,engdahl,2011]
![,engdahl,2011] 1973 10 18 9](/docs-images/42/22837957/images/page_6.jpg "5 10 3 25 16 8 10 3 1 10 22")
7 [Sato,1999,6-7]
![[Sato,1999,6-7] 11](/docs-images/42/22837957/images/page_7.jpg "6 1967 242 1 25 25")
8 (reconsider) [Berger,2007,118] [, July,29,2013]
9
10 [Hook,Gilgen,Hughes,Dobson,2001,30,93] OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC ,
11 [, 1975] % 1979 [Odell,1986,160] 1 [Engdahl,2011,211] [Berger,2007,115] 1991 [cf.,engdahl,2011, ] [, 1991,58-59]
![[Engdahl,2011,211]](/docs-images/42/22837957/images/page_11.jpg "[Berger,2007,115] 1991 [cf.")
12 OPEC 13 3 OPEC [, ] [Cooper,2011, ] (too little, too late)
![[Cooper,2011,353-387]](/docs-images/42/22837957/images/page_12.jpg "4 1990 130 (too")
13 [, 2013]
14 , , ,
15 [, 1999, ] OPEC 8 OPEC
16 1970 OPEC OPEC OPEC [Buckley, 2003,introduction] [, 1991,149,161] 1 OPEC OPEC (Slightly below demand) OPEC
![1981 [, 1991,149,161] 1 OPEC 1979 7](/docs-images/42/22837957/images/page_16.jpg "OPEC (Slightly below demand) 1979")
17 OPEC [, 1991,96] 1995 OPEC 1 2, OPEC 1996 OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC
18 OPEC OPEC 21 [, 2006, ] , , [, 1991, 2 ]
19
20 DPB DPB 18 DPB IMF 7 IMF 3
21 IMF 1 IMF [, 1991,71-73,129,132] new world order [, 1991,59-60] 1970 OPEC [Walt,2002,76]
22 [, 1991,59-6,, 2006,93 ] 3 [Walt,2002,47] [, 1991,62, 1 ] [Brooks,Wohlforth,2008,212] % 3 [, 1991,199,201]
23 [Buckley,2003,intoroduction] % % [, 2006,88-90] 1990 [Buckley,2003,12-13]
24 2 1 2 [Zakaria,2008,27] ASEAN 4
25 [Gilboy,Heginbothan,2012, ] % % IAEA
26 40% % 30% CIS 20
27 LNG
28 [, 1998,67-68] ,000 LNG LNG [Gilboy,Heginbothan,2012, ]
29 [, 2006,3.23] 3 BP
30
31
32 [cf.,gilboy,2012]
33 [, 2002, ]
34 ASEAN ASEAN [, 2013,16-17] 2 ASEAN
35 ,
36
37
38 [, 2002,159] 500 ASEAN [, 1999,27]
39 ASEAN ASEAN 2002 ASEAN 9 ASEAN ASEAN 1 1 2
40 ASEAN ARF EU 5
41 ASEAN 2012 [, 2012, 7.27] ASEAN 1997
42 % [, 2006,43-49] % AIOC 40% [, 2008, ] 1995 CIS
43 KGB NATO 20% 1995
44 [, 1998, 5,7 ]
45 [, 1998, 7 ] CIS OPEC
46 NATO [Walt,2002,215] [Hook,Gilson,Hughes,Dobson,2001,289,303]
47
48 [, 2010, ] ,000 40
49
50 IAEA OPEC
51 (APEC) 1998 [, 1998,31] [Odel,1986,145] [, July 29,2013]
52 (UNDOF)
53 80% 90% WTI G
54 GDP 1 1 / GDP , ,090 1, (IPEEC) G8
55 7 G
56 [, 1999,31] P3C [, 2002, ]
57 [, 2005,105] [, 2006,77]
58 1973 OPEC B 3 [Buzan,1998,95-117] [Sheehan,2005,65] 3
59 2 1 3 [Sheehan,2006,73]
60 [, 1996,305] [The Economist,2013.August,3rd-9th,3.11] Barnett, Th. P. M., Pentagon s New Map, War and Peace in the Twenty- First Century, New York, Berger, Th., U., Mochizuki, M.M. and Tsuchiyama, J.(eds.), Japan in International Politics. The Politics of an Adaptive State, London, Brawley, M. R.,The Political Economy of Balance of Power Theory, Paul, Wirts, Fortmann (eds.), Buzan, B. W, Wilde, J. de, Security. A New Framework for Analysis, London, Buckley, R. (ed.), The Battle for Oil. Diplomacy, politics and big business, Cheltenham, Cooper, A. S., Oil Kings. How the U. S., Iran, and Sudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East, New York, Engdahl, F. W., A Century of War. Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order,. New revised edition, Wiesbaden, Gilboy, G. J., Heginbotham, E., Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior. Growing Power and Alarm, Cambridge, Hook, G. D., Gilson, J., Hugh, C. W., Dobson, H., Japan s International Relations. Politics, Economics and Security, London, Klauss, E. S., Pempel, T J., Beyond Bilateralism. U.S.- Japan Relations in the New Asia-Pacific, California, Mearsheimaer, J. J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York,
61 2001. Odell, P. R., Oil and World Power, 8 th ed., Oxford, Paul, T. V., Wirtz, J. J., Fortmann, M.(eds.), Balance of Power Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, Stanford, Sato, K.(ed.), The Transformation of the Japanese Economy, New York, Sheehan, M., International Security. An Analytical Survey, London, The Economist, August, 3rd -9th, Walt, S. M., Taming American Power. >The Global Response to U.S. Primacy. <, New York, Zakaria, F., The Post-American World, London, July NHK 50 5 / 1996 K.E
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