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1 Bull. Kitakyushu Mus. Nat. Hist. Hum. Hist., Ser. A, 5: 3338, March 31, 27 The forecast of the environmental changes in the urban green spaces by using the index of the degree of naturalness in vegetation A case study in Kitakyushu city Dai ISONO 1, Keitaro ITO 1, Tohru MANABE 2 & Takashi UMENO 3 1 Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu Institute of Technology, 11 Sensuicho, Tobataku, Kitakyushu 8855, Japan 2 Kitakyushu Museum of Natural History and Human History, 21 Higashida, Yahatahigashiku, Kitakyushu 8571, Japan 3 Graduate School of Civil Engineering, Kyushu Institute of Technology, 11 Sensuicho, Tobataku, Kitakyushu 8855, Japan (Received September 8, 25; accepted March 9, 26) ABSTRACT Characteristics of the deteriorated spaces, which were defined as the spaces that the degree of naturalness in vegetation was decreased from 1983 to 1996 at the urban green spaces, were evaluated from some indices such as their area, elevation, slope degree, naturalness, and so on by using the frequency distribution in Kitakyushu City. Most of the spaces were characterized by the woodlands, smaller than 5 ha in area, lower than 2 m in altitude and smaller than 3ß in slope degree, abutted on the urban green spaces of smaller than 6 ha in area. The ranks of naturalness, which were defined by the degree of naturalness in vegetation, were predicted by the single regression for choosing one of their indices that showed the highest correlation coefficient as the predictor variable. The map indicating the probability of the urban green spaces in the future were drawn by overlapping the ranks of naturalness and two kinds of spaces specified by the City Planning Law (the Urbanization Promotion Area or the Urbanization Control Area). The quantitative indicator for managing the urban green spaces in the city was showed by the map

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