陸域環境研究センター

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1 No Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI An Analysis of Drought in Mongolia Using Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI * ** Kazumi SUZUKI * and Tsutomu YAMANAKA ** Yatagai and Yasunari, vulnerability 4 Byun and Wilhite, 1999 * ** 3

1989 Heim 2000 Drought Index WMO 1992 Steila, 1998; Heim, 2000 Byun and Wilhite, 1999 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI ; Palmer, 1965 PDSI PDSI PDSI PDSI 1

2 1989 Heim 2000 Drought Index WMO 1992 Steila, 1998; Heim, 2000 Byun and Wilhite, 1999 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI ; Palmer, 1965 PDSI PDSI PDSI PDSI 1 PDSI PDSI PDSI 10 AWC Available Water Capacity AWC 1 m mm Step 2 Thornthwaite Thornthwaite Step 3 Step 4 Potential Actual Potential 1 PDSI 2 4

1 PDSI Symbol Definition Unit Symbol Definition Unit AWC available water capacity mm R1 recharge to layer 1 mm d moisture departure mm R2 recharge to layer 2 mm ET evapotranspiration mm RO runoff mm

3 1 PDSI Symbol Definition Unit Symbol Definition Unit AWC available water capacity mm R1 recharge to layer 1 mm d moisture departure mm R2 recharge to layer 2 mm ET evapotranspiration mm RO runoff mm K, K' weighting factors S1 soil moisture of layer 1 mm L loss mm S2 soil moisture of layer 2 mm L1 loss from layer 1 mm Uw parameter for calculating Pe mm L2 loss from layer 2 mm Ud parameter for calculating Pe mm P precipitation mm V parameter for calculating Pe mm P CAFEC value of P mm X1 tentative PDSI in dry spell mm Pe probability parameter X2 tentative PDSI in dry spell mm PET potential evapotranspiration mm X3 tentative PDSI mm PL potential loss mm Z moisture anomaly (Z-index) mm PR potential recharge mm ZE parameter for calculating Pe mm PRO potential runoff mm,,, CAFEC parameters R recharge mm 3 Step 3 Potential 2 PDSI Step 5 Potential Actual Actual

4 CAFEC Actual Potential P d Step 7 Z 7 4 Step 4 Actual 3 K CAFEC 1 12 Palmer CAFEC CAFEC Step 6 moisture departure d 5 P 6 P 6 CAFEC Climatologically Appropriate For Existing Conditions Z Z Z 6

5 5 Step 8 PDSI X1 X2 X3 2 PDSI PDSI Class 4 Extremely wet 3 4 Very wet 2 3 Moderately wet 1 2 Slightly wet Incipient wet spell Near normal Incipient drought 1 2 Mild drought 2 3 Moderate drought 3 4 Severe drought 4 Extreme drought 6 Step 9 Probability PDSI PDSI Step 8 5 Step 9 6 PDSI Step 10 7 PDSI 2 PDSI Alley 1984Karl 1986Guttman Step 10 PDSI 7

6 University of Nebraska-Lincoln Web Wells NCEP/NCAR PDSI NCEP/NCAR National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research UB PDSI 3 NDVI PDSI NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NOAA/AVHRR SPOT 1 PDSI PDSI AWC AWC AWC PDSI mm PDSI Z AWC PDSI AWC 200 mm 9 PDSI 1960 PDSI Extremely wet PDSI

2003 9 Extreme drought PDSI 4 1973 88 PDSI 0.5 1965 10 2 PDSI NDVI PDSI PDSI NDVI r 0.004 PDSI NDVI r 0.

7 Extreme drought PDSI PDSI PDSI NDVI PDSI PDSI NDVI r PDSI NDVI r PDSI NDVI PDSI PDSI PDSI 4 11 a d a PDSI PDSI PDSI 10 PDSI NDVI 9

8 b PDSI c PDSI 1 11 PDSI 10

9 d 1960 PDSI PDSI 8 8 NCEP/NCAR PDSI NDVI PDSI NDVI AMPEX RAISE p p 2002 RAISE Project BP

10 Alley, W. M. (1984): The palmer drought severity index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23, Byun, H. R. and Wilhite, D. A. (1999): Objective quantification of drought severity and duration. Journal of Climate, 12, Guttman, N. B. (1991): A sensitivity analysis of the Palmer hydrologic drought index. Water Resources Bulletin, 27, Heim, R. R. Jr. (2000): Drought indices. Wilhite, D. A. ed. : Drought : A global assessment, Vol. 1. Routledge, London, Karl, T. R. (1986): The sensitivity of Palmer drought severity index and Palmer's Z-index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, Palmer, W. C. (1965): Meteorological Drought. Research Paper, No. 45, Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C., 58p. Steila, D. (1998): Drought. Fairbridge, R. W. ed. : Encyclopedia of Hydrology and Water Resources, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948): An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review, 65, Wells, N. (2002): What is the Palmer drought severity index? _doc/ WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (1992): International Meteorological Vocabulary, Second Edition, WMO Publication, No. 182, Geneva, Switzerland. Yatagai, A. and Yasunari, T. (1994): Trends and decadal-scale fluctuations of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and Mongolia during the recent 40 year period ( ). Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 72,

* Meso- -scale Features of the Tokai Heavy Rainfall in September 2000 Shin-ichi SUZUKI Disaster Prevention Research Group, National R

38 2002 7 2000 9 * Meso- -scale Features of the Tokai Heavy Rainfall in September 2000 Shin-ichi SUZUKI Disaster Prevention Research Group, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention,