マネタリスト・モデルによるスタグフレーションの分析
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- かんじ たけはな
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6 monetary approach Keynesian approach 48~49 48~49 46~
7 a second order error learning model an open economy Andersen et al 5 a closed economy 3
8 2 2 (a) y (b) 4
9 2 (a) (b) 3 3 (1) (2) (3) 4 (a) (1) (2) (3) (1) 5
10 4 (a) (b) (2) (3) 4 (b)
11 7
12 LM IS LM IS accepted theory (1) (2) 1960 time path time path 8
13 expectationsaugmented Philips curve Friedman a closed economy C Y f r (1) P P P I g ( r ) (2) Y C I S Y C I (3) P P P P P P M D Y P l r (4) P M S h( r ) (5) M D M S (6) (1) induced (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C I Y r P M D M S i ii iii (7) P P0 (7) (8) P Y y y0 (8) dichotomy Y y0 P (1) (3) 3 C/P I/P r (1) (2)(3)(9) y0 f ( y0 r ) g( r ) (9) r r0 (5) M S M0 (6)(4) (10) M0 P l ( y0 r0) (10) y o l( y0 r0)/y0 V 1/V (11)(12) 9
14 M V Py (11) MV P (12) y (4) (4a) M D Y l( r ) (4a) (13) dp r ρ P (13) dt ρ dp P dt (14) dy r ρ Y dy dt y dt dy ρ g Y (14) dt g ρ g ρ g K0 M D Y l( r ) (4a) M S h( r ) (5) M D M S (6) dy r K0 Y (15) dt dy Y dt M D M S Y r 4 M (t) (4a) (5) (6) M ( t) Y (t) (16) l ( r ) Y (t) V (r) M (t) (17) V (17) (15)(17) (1) (3) (15) (17) (1) ( expectations hypothesis ) 10
15 1970 Andersen et al 5 reduced form I 1969IV 4 m 1 f 1 0 m5 f5 0 ΔY t ΔM t i 4 mi fi ΔF t i i 0 i 0 (3.46) R S 3.84 DW 1.75 m0 1.22(2.73) f0 0.56(2.57) m1 1.80(7.34) f1 0.45(3.43) m2 1.62(4.25) f2 0.01(0.08) m3 0.87(3.65) f30.43( 3.18) m4 0.06(0.12) f40.54(2.47) m i 5.57(8.06) f i 0.05(0.17) () 1. ΔYt t GNP ΔM t i t i M1 ΔF t i t i high-employment explicit (1) 11
16 (2) MPS MIT-Penn- Social Science Research Council econometric model
17 price-taker M. Parkin 10 the low of one price tradables nontradables 13
18 M. Blejer 9 the expectaions-augmented excess demand model of price determination R. Cross and Laidler 11F. Spinelli 12 A. Horseman 13 Parkin et al 14 Genberg 15 M. Parkin and G. W. Smith 14 () Cross and Laidler 11 product differentia tion 14
19 L. C. Andersen and J. L. Jordan 6 / Keran M, W
20 16 5 I
21 (1) T ΔY t f 1 ΔM t ΔM t n ΔE t ΔE t n Δ Δ T Y t Y t n (2) P t f2 D t D t n P e t 1P m t P e t 1 (3) D t ΔY t ( X F t X t 1 ) (4) X t Y t /P t (5) P e t P e t 1 f3p w t P e t 1 P w t 1 P e t 2DMK t XDUM ZDUM (6) U t f4 G t 3 (7) G t X F t X t F 100 t X (8) Y t Y t 1 ΔY t (9) P t P t 1P t 1 P t /100 (10) X X t X t 1 t 100 X t 1 (11) P w t f5 D t D t n P e t 1P m t P e t 1) (12) K M t DMK t 100 ( T T 2 ) Yt 1. ΔY t 2. P t 3. D t 4. X t / 5. P e t
22 6. U t 7. G t 8. Y t 9. P t 10. X t 11. P w t 12. DMK t K 2 1. ΔM t (M2) 2. ΔE t 3. X F t 45 T 4. Δ / Y t 5. P m t 6. XDUM ZDUM T (1) 3 reduced form (2) (3) ( X F t X t 1 ) (4) (ΔY ) (1)(2) (4) (5) K 2 (6) (7) (8) (10) (11) (2) (5) (2) (12)K/ 8 18
23 8 G N P K 19
24 (1) K / m 1 e 1 t 1 0 m5 e5 t5 0 ΔY t 4 mi ΔM t i 4 ei ΔE t i 4 T ti Δ i 0 i 0 i 0 (1.57) Y R S DW m (0.01) e (3.90) t0563.1( 2.23) m (1.13) e (2.66) t1477.6( 1.90) m (7.92) e ( 0.26) t2 61.2( 0.34) m (2.88) e ( 2.90) t ( 1.60) m (2.03) e ( 3.95) t ( 2.09) m i e i t i ΔY t t 10 ΔM t i t i M2 10 ΔE t i t i 10 Δ Y T t i t i t i 20
25 5 2 3 (1) (2) ii D t D t ΔY t (X F t X t 1 ) ΔY t t X F t t II X t 1 t 1 X F t X t 1 ΔY X F t X t 1 iii 1 1,900 6 Carson, Parkin 16 I 10 2a second order error I 52 I P e t P e t (P w t P e t 1) (P w t 1 P e t 2) (5.21) (8.45) ( 6.51) 1.671XDUM 4.021ZDUM DMK t ( 6.71) ( 11.22) (2.81) R S 0.24 DW 2.17 P e t =t P w t =t XDUM ZDUM DMK t =t KM2/ 21
26 learning model46 49 K 2 M. Parkin 18D. E. Rose P W t 6 P e t 1 31 P e t inertia II3 11 II3 22
27 11 40 II 52 I 3 d 1 0 d3 0 P w t 2 di D t i P e t 1 (P m t P e t 1) (0.37) i 0 (7.42) (6.95) R S 0.86 DW d (1.68) d (3.16) d ( 0.22) d t P w t t D t i t i P e t 1 t 1 P m t t v II 52 I 3 d 1 0 d4 0 P 3 t d i D t i P e t 1 (P m t P e t 1) i 0 (10.41) (7.74) (7.67) R S 0.51 DW d (1.25) d (2.46) d (1.55) d (0.38) d i P t t D t t P e t 1 t 1 P m t t 23
28 Y t P t II 51 I U t G t 3 (41.16) (12.39) R S DW 1.23 U t t G t 3 t 3 K K M T T Y (52.03) (0.60) (1.51) R A L
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