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8 a 2 a 3,a a 1 a 2 a 3 a Pseudo-R (4.37) <0.00> (-7.58) <0.00> (0.09) <0.93> (0.61) <0.54> (-12.40) <0.00> (2.76) <0.01> z t p 5% 99 c a a 1 a 2 a 3 a Pseudo-R (1.42) (-2.30) (-0.53) (-2.60) (-5.97) (11.27) <0.16> <0.02> <0.60> <0.01> <0.00> <0.00>
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14 (1) 22 1 Horioka1993 Hayashi (1),(2) Altonji, Hayashi and Kotlikoff1992Hayashi, Altonji and Kotlikoff1996Hayashi Bernheim, Shleifer and Summers1985 strategic bequest motive 10
15 12-2(3) 60 2 strategic bequest motive (1) 13-2(2) 1 2, (3)
16 (2) accidental bequest transitory income Abel
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18 ordered probit model Y i Y i Y * i latent variable * Yi = a1 + a 2X i + ei (1) 29 X i Y i (1)X i * i Y i * ì0 Yi g1 ï * Y i = í1 if g1 < Yi g 2 (2) ï * î2 g < Y 2 i (2) (1) a 1 a 2 (1) i 30 F() - i =a 1 +a 2 X i -Y * i Y i =0,1,2 Pr(Yi = 0;X i,a, g) = 1- F(a1 + a 2Xi - g1) Pr(Yi = 1;X i,a, g) = F(a1 + a 2Xi - g1) - F(a1 + a 2Xi - g 2 ) (3) Pr(Y = 2;X,a, g) = F(a + a X - g ) i i 1 2 i i ordered logit model 14
19 (3) 4 a 1,a 2, 1, 2 Y i log likelihood function, LLF LLF(a, g) = log Õ Yi = 0 Pr(Y = 0;X,a, g) + log i i Õ Yi = 1 Pr(Y = 1;X,a, g) + logõ Pr(Yi = 2;X i,a, g) (4) Y i = 2 4 (4) LLF i i 15
20 Abel, A. B.1985, Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests, American Economic Review, Vol.75. Altonji, J., Hayashi, F. and Kotlikoff, L.1992, Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data, American Economic Review, Vol.82. Altonji, J., Hayashi, F. and Kotlikoff, L.1995, Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence, NBER Working Paper Banks, J., Blundell, R. and Tanner, S.1998, Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?, American Economic Review, Vol.88. Barro, R. J. and Friedman, J. W.1977, On Uncertain Lifetimes, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85. Bernheim, B. D., Shleifer, A. and Summers, L. H.1985, The Strategic Bequest Motive, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.93. Carlson, J. A. and Parkin, M.1975, Inflation Expectation, Economica 42. Carroll, C. D. and Samwick, A. A.1998, How Important is Precautionary Saving?, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.LXXX. Hayashi, F.1986, Why Is Japan s Saving Rate So Apparently High?, in S. Fischer, ed., Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 1, National Bureau of Economic Research. Hayashi, F., Ando, A. and Ferris, R.1988, Life Cycle and Bequest Savings, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2. Hayashi, F.1995, Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103. Hayashi, F., Altonji, J. and Kotlikoff, L.1996, Risk-sharing between and within Families, Econometrica, Vol.64. Hayashi, F.1998, Understanding Saving, MIT Press. Higgins, M.1998, Demography, National Savings and International Capital Flows, International Economic Review, Vol.39, No.2. Horioka, C. Y.1984, The Applicability of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving to Japan, The Kyoto University Economic Review, 54, No.2. Horioka, C. Y.1989, Why Is Japan s Private Saving Rate So high?, In Ryuzo Sato and Takashi Negishi (eds.), Developments in Japanese Economics. Tokyo : Academic Press / Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Japan, Inc.. Horioka, C. Y.1993, Saving in Japan, in Heertje, A., eds., World Savings, Blackwell Publishers, UK / USA No.27 16
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