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1 M-MAP2 seminar Current situation of Tokyo urban railway and importance of demand forecast 10/march/2017 Tokyo Metro Tokyo Metro 1

2 Introduction About 45 years of experience Tokyo Metro 2

3 agenda Ⅰ About Urban Railway in Tokyo Ⅱ History of METRO construction Ⅲ Plan for the 21st Century (Transport Policy) Ⅳ DEMAND FORECAST Tokyo Metro 3

4 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Railway operators have built cities based on urban railway master plan. Tokyo Metro 4

5 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo The central area of Tokyo 20km Tokyo Metro 5

6 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo METRO Railway operators Private railway National railway Privatization JR Tokyo Metro 6

7 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Additional document Current Tokyo Metro Rail Network Map in Tokyo

8 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Additional document Tokyo Metro Outline - Company outline Operating lines 9 Lines Ginza 14.3 km Marunouchi 27.4 km Hibiya 20.3 km Tozai 30.8 km Chiyoda 24.0 km Yurakucho 28.3 km Hanzomon 16.8 km Namboku 21.3 km Route length Total km No. of stations 179 stations No. of cars 2,719 cars (As of March 31, 2013) No. of passengers Fukutoshin 11.9 km Average number per day 6.44million (FY2012) Minimum headway 1 min 50 sec (Marunouchi Line)

9 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Additional document Tobu Line 40.1 km Seibu Line 40.3 km Tokyo Metro 9 lines and through-service operation Saitama Railway Line 14.6 km Namboku Chiyoda Tobu Line 56.9 km JR Line 29.7 km JR Line 9.4 km Hibiya Ginza Toyo Rapid Line 16.2 km Marunouchi Fukutoshi n Tozai JR Line 6.1 km Odakyu Line 52.5 km Yurakucho Operating Kilometers Tokyu Line 31.5 km Tokyu Line 11.9 km Tokyu Line 24.2 km Minatomirai Line 4.1km Tokyo Metro lines (Solid lines) Through-service partner lines (Dotted lines) Total km 337.5km km As of Mar. 31, 2013

10 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo National railway Privatization JR Each group has been roles Private railway Tokyo Metro 10

11 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo There is a METRO in central Tokyo METRO Tokyo Metro 11

12 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo The Tokyo Home Urban Ministry Rail Development Notification No. Master-plan Ikebukuro OtsukaSugamo Minami- Senju Ueno Narihirabashi Iidabashi Ochanomizu Ryogoku Oshiage Shinjuku Kanda Tōkyō Shimbashi Susaki Shibuya Meguro Gotanda Legend New or additional section National Railway Private Railway Prefectural border Line No. From Gotanda Meguro Shibuya Shinjuku Ikebukuro To Oshiage Minami- Senju Sugamo Otsuka Susaki Tokyo Metro 12

13 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Urban Transport Council Report No. 10 The Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan 1968 to Saitama Yamatomachi (Wakōshi) Narimasu Akabane Iwabuchimachi Ayase Ōji Mukohara Kita-Senju Nakamurabashi Nerima Ikebukuro Sugamo Komagome Mejiro Gokokuji Minowa Takadanobaba Asakusa to Ogikubo Nakano Ueno Oshiage Tobu Noda Line Honancho Shinjuku Yotsuya Ichigaya Iidabashi Asakusabashi Jimbocho Tōkyō Kakigaracho Kinshichō Sumiyoshicho Nishi-Funabashi Roka-kōen Toyocho Yoyogi-Uehara Shibuya Akashicho Shimbashi Azabu Nakameguro Ebisu Kitami Sengakuji Meguro Kirigaya Shinagawa Gotanda Legend Section following previous plan New or additional section Cancelled section Line No. From To 1 (Main route) 1 (Branch route) Nishi-magome Shinagawa Oshiage Shibakurumachō Line No. From To 8 (Main route) Meguro Nerima to Saitama Akashicho National Railway Nakameguro Kita-Senju 8 (Branch route) Narimasu Mukohara Futakotamagawa Private Railway Prefectural border 4 (Main route) Shibuya Ogikubo Minowa Ikebukuro 8 (Branch route) Nakamurabashi Kitami Gokokuji Ayase 4 (Branch route) Honancho Nakano-sakaue Roka-kōen Sumiyoshicho Nakano to Tobu Noda Line Futakotamagawa Kakigaracho Kirigaya Yamatomachi Shinjuku Azabu Nishi-magome Tokyo Metro 13

14 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo urban railway master plan pie in the sky Tokyo Metro 14

15 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo km km 200km 312km 512km 303km 816km 169km 985km 335 km 452 km 198 km 0 JR private railroad SUBWAY METRO Tokyo Metro 15

16 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo Operating km of urban rail is 2459 km Metro 357.5, 15% Private railway, , 49% JR, 887.2, 36% Tokyo Metro 16

17 Ⅰ. About Urban Railway in Tokyo The number of station 1510 METRO, 325, 21% JR, 360, 24% Private railway, 825, 55% Tokyo Metro 17

18 Next topic. Ⅰ About Urban Railway in Tokyo Ⅱ History of Metro construction Ⅲ Plan for the 21st Century (Transport Policy) Ⅳ DEMAND FORECAST Tokyo Metro 18

19 Ⅱ. History of Metro construction Urban Transport Council Report No. 10 The Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan 1968 to Saitama Yamatomachi (Wakōshi) Narimasu Akabane Iwabuchimachi Ayase Ōji Mukohara Kita-Senju Nakamurabashi Nerima Ikebukuro Sugamo Komagome Mejiro Gokokuji Minowa Takadanobaba Asakusa to Ogikubo Nakano Ueno Oshiage Tobu Noda Line Honancho Shinjuku Yotsuya Ichigaya Iidabashi Asakusabashi Jimbocho Tōkyō Kakigaracho Kinshichō Sumiyoshicho Nishi-Funabashi Roka-kōen Toyocho Yoyogi-Uehara Shibuya Akashicho Shimbashi Azabu Nakameguro Ebisu Kitami Sengakuji Meguro Kirigaya Shinagawa Gotanda Legend Section following previous plan New or additional section Cancelled section Line No. From To 1 (Main route) 1 (Branch route) Nishi-magome Shinagawa Oshiage Shibakurumachō Line No. From To 8 (Main route) Meguro Nerima to Saitama Akashicho National Railway Nakameguro Kita-Senju 8 (Branch route) Narimasu Mukohara Futakotamagawa Private Railway Prefectural border 4 (Main route) Shibuya Ogikubo Minowa Ikebukuro 8 (Branch route) Nakamurabashi Kitami Gokokuji Ayase 4 (Branch route) Honancho Nakano-sakaue Roka-kōen Sumiyoshicho Nakano to Tobu Noda Line Futakotamagawa Kakigaracho Kirigaya Yamatomachi Shinjuku Azabu Nishi-magome Tokyo Metro 19

20 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Yurakucho Line New Line Y09 Y13 Y18 Y22 Y JR P M Tokyo Metro 20

21 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Y22 Y18 Y13 Y09 Yurakucho Line 0 50, , , , , , Tokyo Metro 21

22 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Y22 Worker Tokyo Metro 22

23 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Y22 Surrounding situation Bus terminal large apartment Tokyo Metro 23

24 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Nanboku Line komagome New Line yotuya iidabashi ichigaya meguro N JR P M Tokyo Metro 24

25 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Hanzomon Line New Line Z JR P M Tokyo Metro 25

26 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Z14 Person Actual value Estimated value Tokyo Metro 26

27 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Fukutoshin Line New Line ikebukuro shibuya F JR P M Tokyo Metro 27

28 Million Ⅱ. History of METRO construction 13 The population of Tokyo Tokyo Metro 28

29 Million Ⅱ. History of METRO construction The population of Tokyo The population of Tokyo & History of METRO construction 58 years F 11 N 10 Y Z Z 9 T C 8 H 7 M Tokyo Metro 29

30 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Steps in railway construction in Japan Government inquiry commission master plan time axis Data provision Detailed analysis Railway operators Permission for Railway Business Begin construction Tokyo Metro 30

31 Ⅱ. History of METRO construction Tokyo s METRO network (including through-service sections) As of Mar. 31, 2015 (in km) Line METRO Partner Line Details of through-service sections Ginza None Marunouchi None Tokyo Metro Hibiya Tobu 44.4 Tozai JR 15.5, Toyo-kosoku 16.2 Chiyoda Odakyu 52.5, JR 29.7 Yurakucho Seibu 40.3, Tobu 40.1 Fukutoshin Seibu 40.3, Tobu 40.1, Tokyu 24.2, Minatomirai 4.1 Hanzomon Tokyu 31.5, Tobu 56.9 Namboku Tokyu 11.9, Saitama Railway 14.6 Tokyo Metro total Toei METRO Asakusa Keisei 64.6, Keisei/Hokuso 49.9, Shibayama 2.2, Keikyu 73.4 Mita Tokyu 11.9 Shinjuku Keio 67.3 Oedo None Toei METRO total Tokyo Metro and Toei METRO total 301.8* *A section 2.3km is shared by both operators and counted once. Tokyo Metro 31

32 Next topic. Ⅰ About Urban Railway in Tokyo Ⅱ History of METRO construction Ⅲ Plan for the 21st Century (Transport Policy) Ⅳ DEMAND FORECAST Tokyo Metro 32

33 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) The Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan Tokyo Metro 33

34 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Contents of the plan -on urban railway master plan- 1 New Line 2 Reuse Effective use 3 Sustainability Tokyo Metro 34

35 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Issues of railway management Population concentration (Population growth) Business core city Airport Access New Town Wide Area Network Bullet train Effective use New Line Tokyo Metro 35

36 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) The Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan 2000 Tokyo Metro 36

37 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) The Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan 2000 Tokyo Metro 37

38 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Length of Congested Sections of Main 42 Lines (1995) Tokyo Metro 38

39 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Airport Access( Estimated) HANEDA Legend Within 60 minutes(1998) Spreading range(2015) Estimated Tokyo Metro 39

40 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Government Think Tank Research & study Railway operators Tokyo Metro 40

41 Ⅲ. Plan for the 21st Century(Transport Policy) Japan Transport Research Institute Brief History 1968: The Japan Transport Economics Research Center (JTERC) was founded in order to engage in comprehensive research activities on transport policies. 1991: The Japan International Transport Institute was established as an internal body of JTERC in order to strengthen global information gathering capabilities Tokyo Metro 41

42 Last topic. Ⅰ About Urban Railway in Tokyo Ⅱ History of METRO construction Ⅲ Plan for the 21st Century (Transport Policy) Ⅳ DEMAND FORECAST Tokyo Metro 42

43 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST Fukutoshin Line New Line F JR P M Tokyo Metro 43

44 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST Fukutoshin Line Ridership Actual value Estimated value Tokyo Metro 44

45 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST A rail ridership demand forecast model system Tokyo Metro 45

46 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST Flow Chart of Rail Transport Demand Forecasting Urban Transportation Setting Future Population Four-Step Estimation Method (1) Forecast trip generation/attraction (2) Forecast trip distribution (3) Forecast modal choice (4) Forecast railway route choice Daily sectional traffic volume by route Trunk Route Access Transportation (airport access, Shinkansen access) Determining Future Trunk Route Users by Terminal (2) Forecast trip distribution (3) Forecast modal choice (4) Forecast railway route choice Daily sectional traffic volume by route Daily sectional traffic volume for all routes in scope Peak sectional traffic volume by route Peak congestion rate by route Peak congestion rate by route Peak transportation capacity by route Tokyo Metro 46

47 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST Overview of Four-Step Estimation Method 1. Forecasting future population Number of Workers by Residence 6 people Number of Workers by Workplace Y City 1 people X City Z City 5people 2. Forecasting traffic volume using the four-step estimation method (1) Forecasting trip generation/attraction Generation volume Attraction volume (3) Forecasting modal choice Train: 3/5 people X City Z City (2) Forecasting trip distribution Current pattern = Future pattern Y City X City Car: 1/5 people Bus: 1/5 people Walk: 0/5 people Z City (4) Forecasting railway route choice A Line: 2/3 people X City Y City X City B Line: 1/3 people Z City Tokyo Metro 47

48 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST New Study Tokyo Metro 48

49 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST METRO 出典 : Tokyo Metro 49

50 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST Business core city Station 2020 METRO Tokyo Metro 50

51 Ⅳ. DEMAND FORECAST METRO Tokyo Metro 51

52 Other topics Additional document Process for Private Company in Tokyo Metro Case Strong Social Needs for Tokyo Metropolitan Metro Network Establishment for Metro System Construction Almost Finished the Metro Network in Tokyo Social Needs for Sustainable Metro System Privatization for Metro System Business Sustainable Metro System Business Fiscal Investment and Loan by the Government /Subsidy by the Government Keep Social Stocks and Good Use Relax government Regulation Supported by The Government Apply a Process in Private Business Model (Self-Responsibility) TEITO RAPID TRANSIT AUTHORITY (Public corporation) TOKYO METRO Company (100% government Investment) 52

53 Additional document Conclusion Railway master plan is important for city growth Scientific demand forecasting method is basics of railway project (Ridership demand forecasts are positive) Government support of up to business to self-reliance is important Tokyo Metro 53

54 For the future of Bangkok Tokyo Metro 54

55 Thank Tokyo Metro 55

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