1.5 IPCC A Coal Phase-Out Pathway for 1.5 C
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1 1.5 IPCC A Coal Phase-Out Pathway for 1.5 C
2 Coalswarm Global Coal Plant TrackerGlobal Fossil Projects Tracker; CoalWire newsletter FrackSwarm Greenpeace International NGO NGO The Global Coal Plant Tracker MW EndCoal. org Tracker Methodology Ted Nace Permissions/Copyright Copyright October 2018 by CoalSwarm and Greenpeace International. Charlene Will David Van Ness Cover: Copyright Nian Shan / Greenpeace Further Resources EndCoal.org Summary Statistics GCPTEndCoal.org Reports GCPT Ted Nace ted@tednace.com COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
3 1.5 IPCC IPCC IPCC Pathway GCPT GCPT 30MW OECD OECD OECD 2030 OECDIPCC IPCC EJ EJ IPCC IPCC IPCC Findings on Coal COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
4 THE CHALLENGE: IPCC OECD2030 OECD COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
5 STEP GW 573GW 57GW Tsunami Warning: Can China s Central Authorities Stop a Massive Surge in New Coal Plants Caused by Provincial Overpermitting? 1 MW MW 25,160 45,916 25, , ,127 1,068,186 31,304 34,585 25, ,795 46, ,275 34,075 22,596 17,892 40,360 28,517 71,924 EU 18,000 18,827 8,255 26,614 1,130 28,899 25,130 5,780 8,000 20,648 11,045 52,517 1,080 4, ,210 1,102 85,201 EU28 3,550 5,330 1, , , ,666 3,735 2,175 16, , , , , , ,144 87, , ,919 2,002, COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
6 STEP 2 IPCC OECD OECD 2 6 IPCC OECD OECD GW GW GW OECD OECD OECD OECD GW OECD OECD 1.5 COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
7 CO GW/ GW/ ,999GW 20301,005GW GW GW COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
8 STEP U.S. DOE 2013 IEA 2014 EPRI US EIA IEA IEA 2017 COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
9 CONCLUSION: IPCC1.5 TWh IPCC OECD OECD IPCC IPCC EJ 2,892TWh EJ 350TWh IPCC 1.5 Chapter COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
10 OECD OECD EU GW OECD OECDGW COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
11 OECD OECD OECD2000 OECD GW/ GW/ GW/ GW/ GW/ GW/ OECD GW COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
12 IPCC EJ EJ121.96EJ 6,100TWh Jenkins and Thernstrom ,000GW 83.3GW GW GW McCracken GW IRENA GW IEA 2018b IEA20302,700TWh TWh SDS IEA SDSIEA 2018a IEA SDS TWh981TWh2030 2,732TWh4,193TWh6,925TWh 20165,641TWh IEA 2017 COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
13 References EPRI (2011). Mitigating the Effects of Flexible Operation on Coal-Fired Power Plants. IEA (2014). Increasing the Flexibility of Coal-Fired Plants. IEA (2017). World Energy Outlook, Annex. IEA (2018a). Tracking Clean Energy Progress: Power. IEA (2018b). Tracking Clean Energy Progress: Solar PV. IRENA (2017). Renewable energy highlights, March 30, Jenkins, Jesse D., and Samuel Thernstrom (2017). Deep Carbonization of the Electrical Sector: Insights from Recent Literature. EIRP, March McCracken, Ross (2018). Global wind capacity additions stall in 2017, but remain above 50 GW. S&P Global, February 14, U.S. DOE (2013). Flexible Coal: Evolution from Baseload to Peaking Plant. U.S. EIA (2016). Table 6.7.A. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Primarily Using Fossil Fuels, January 2013 July COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
14 Appendix A TWh OECD IPCC % of IPCC ,384 2,404 2,404 9,192 53% ,371 2,348 2,180 8,899 51% ,353 2,293 1,969 8,992 8,616 96% 49% ,331 2,239 1,771 8,382 8, % 47% ,306 2,186 1,583 7,772 8, % 46% ,103 1,957 1,205 7,162 7, % 44% ,910 1, ,552 6,503 99% 42% ,725 1, ,942 5,784 97% 41% ,344 1, ,332 5,161 97% 39% ,985 1, ,722 4,573 97% 38% ,647 1, ,112 4,021 98% 37% ,328 1, ,502 3, % 35% , ,892 3, % 34% , ,765 2, % 33% , ,638 2, % 32% , ,510 2,485 99% 31% , ,383 2,323 97% 30% , ,256 2,168 96% 29% , ,129 2,057 97% 28% , ,002 1,950 97% 27% , ,875 1,847 99% 26% , ,748 1, % 25% , ,621 1, % 24% ,494 1,476 99% 23% ,367 1,309 96% 22% ,240 1,148 93% 22% , % 21% % 20% % 19% % 19% % 18% % 17% % 17% COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
15 Appendix B MW OECD MW , ,614 1,998, , , ,014 2,005, ,016, , ,413 2,011, ,048, , ,813 2,018, ,079, , ,212 2,024, ,066, , ,508 1,887, ,052, , ,804 1,750, ,039, ,100 1,614, , , ,901 1,492, ,273 87, ,702 1,370, ,745 58, ,504 1,248, ,216 29, ,305 1,126, , ,106 1,004, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,197 95,197 COALSWARM AND GREENPEACE OCTOBER
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資料３.doc
1 2 I. 1. 1 11 3 4 5 2. 2 http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/2007/22281.htm 3 DOT http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/data/freedoms.htm 6 6 4 7 5 ECOFORUM24 4 2006 17 6 GATS GATS 1994 4 124 1995 1 1 8 7 Annex
