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1 MINGA

2 BP

3 dn dt = rn(1 N K ) r K K x = N/K dx dt = rx(1 x) = rx rx2 x(t) = ( 1 x 0 1)e rt S r K r K Campbell & Laherere Scientific American

4 , A. M. S , M. R. 2007, C. 2009, K. S. 2010, D. 2010, C. J , J CERA Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. February p

5 Leggett, J. Half Gone. London: Portobello, p US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook April IEA (1) (2) (3) 5

6

7 (1) (2) 7 (3)

8 7. 10 ASPO Hirsch

9 Sonia Shah, Crude: The Study of Oil. London: Verso, p (1) (2)

10 deposit 8 SAGD Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage BP BP CERA 2005 EIA CERA CERA Raymond James & Associates 10

11 3. OPEC OPEC 3 OPEC BP BP 1. BP OPEC 2. BP 11

12 (a) (b) (1) 1. (a) 50 (b) (c) (d) ELN 4.5 (2)

13 Hirsch Hirsch

14 i.i.d CO 2 ppm Yes ppm 300ppm ppm 380ppm ppm ppm CO 2 CO

15 8. CO 2 CO CO CO CO 2 IPCC 2001 CO 2 CO 2 15

16 10. IPCC CO IPCC IPCC IPCC IPCC EU 2 CO ppm 520ppm CO 2 400ppm 2 16

17 11. CO 2 CO 2 CO

18 12. CO CNN EU 2 IPCC

19 13(a). CO 2 13(b). CO 2 13(c). CO 2 19

20 SUV (1), 2005.,

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