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2 7 The economic trends from 7 onwards in terms of Juglar and Kuznets cycle The purpose of this paper is to forecast economic trends from 7 onwards. In order to accomplish this, first, we verify the economic movement in 6th business cycle and extract a distinctive feature of the economic movement in terms of Indexes of Business Conditions especially the Composite Index. Secondary, we examine how the Juglar cycles change by means of Diffusion Index, Business Sentiment Diffusion Index OECD Business Indicator and so on. We also observe how the Kuznets cycles behave by the use of the same data of business indexes. Lastly, we forecast the future business trend up to 9 by the use of the Juglar cycles and the Kuznets cycles. As a result, we find out that the business trend will tend to increase from 7 to 9. Osamu Murata JEL E, E3 Keywords The business forecast, The economy of Japan, The compound theory of business cycle, Juglar cycle, Kuznets cycle
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9 経済学論究第 7 巻第 号 図9 内需寄与度 ᖺ 996ᖺ 997ᖺ 998ᖺ 999ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ 3ᖺ ᖺ 5ᖺ 6ᖺ 7ᖺ 8ᖺ 9ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ ᖺ 3ᖺ ᖺ 5ᖺ 6ᖺ Ẹ㛫ఫᏯᢞ㈨ -6 Ẹ㛫タഛᢞ㈨ Ẹ㛫 ᾘ -8 ᬒẼᚋ ᮇ - GDPᡂ㛗 - この図から 年第Ⅱ四半期以降 消費の伸び率がマイナス あるいは プラスでも小さくなっていることが景気の足踏み状態をもたらしていると判断 できる 実際 第 循環から第 5 循環の景気拡張期においては 消費の伸 び率はプラスとなっている 年第Ⅱ四半期以降の消費の伸び悩みは言う までもなく 消費税率の 5%から 8%への引き上げが原因と考えられる 同様 のことは 997 年 月 日の消費税の 3%から 5%への引き上げの際にも生じ ている8) 図 9 からもわかるように 997 年 月の消費税増税の後 景気は 急速に冷え込み 第 循環は 997 年 5 月を境に景気後退期に突入したので ある しかしながら 第 循環においては 第 6 循環のように景気の足踏 み状態は生じておらず 年第Ⅱ四半期以降の足踏み状態が消費税の増税 のみに起因するとは考えられない そこで消費税以外の原因を探るために 短 期の景気動向に影響を与える中 長期循環の動きを見ていくことにしよう 第 節 中期循環 ジュグラーサイクル の動き 本節では 複合循環論の立場から中期循環の動きを考察し ジュグラーサイ クルの山と谷のクロノロジーを見ていく 8) 997 年第 四半期の消費寄与度と設備投資寄与度の急伸は 年第 四半期同様に消費 税増税を睨んだ駆け込み需要によるものである 8
10 7 () 9) ) 5 % ) 9) 6 7 GDP 96b ) 6 GDP GDP GDP 5 7 ) GDP t = t.5t +.3t 3 (.88) (5.6) ( 3.6) (.) (5.E-7)t + (7.65E-)t 5 ( 9.9) (8.9) 9
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15 7 6 OECD () 6 ) ) 6 GDP GDP 5 = t.37t +.89t 3 (8.3E-5)t + (5.5E-7)t 5 (7.98) (5.3) ( 3.98) (3.6) (.83) (.7)
16 GDP 7 5) ) 7 GDP = t.6t ( 3.98) (.8) ( 7.99) 5
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24 7 DI DI OECD DI DI OECD 5 3% UFJ 96a 96b UFJ No Schumpeter, J.A. 939, Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. Vol., London, McGraw- Hill
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