ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.141 by May 2005 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
* 2005 5 * 2005 2 25 2005 1 24 SNA 2005 3 24
( ) GDP 20 (1) (2) (3)
...1...1...1...4...6...8...13...14...18...19...20...22 93SNA...22 2ILO CPI...22 3 GDP..23 4...23 5 GDP...24...25
Estimating Imputed Rent for Owner-occupied Dwellings in the Japanese System of National Accounts * HaruhitoArai May 2005 * A preliminary version of this paper was presented to Sub-committee for Methodological Study in Advisory Committee for SNA on February 25, 2005. A summary version was also presented to Study Group on Housing Economy, organized by Housing Research & Advancement Foundation of Japan, on January 24, 2005, and to ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) International Conference on Next Steps for the Japanese System of National Accounts (Internal Session) on March 24, 2005. I thank participants of these meetings and Dr. Nobuo Akai, Associate Professor, School of Business Administration, University of Hyogo, for their valuable comments and suggestions. I also thank Messrs. Shuji Hasegawa, Kosuke Suzuki, and Toshitaka Nakano (National Expenditures Division, ESRI), Toshikazu Amari (National Product Division, ESRI), and Akira Takami (Consumer Statistics Division, Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication) for their collaboration and comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ESRI or of the Japanese Government. Executive Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office.
Abstract This paper analyses possible causes of large discrepancies among official data for imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings in Japan, those including National Accounts, Regional Accounts, Input-output Table, and National Survey on Family Income Expenditure. By reviewing the methodologies used by each statistical agency in the light of academic researches on imputed rent and rent functions, this paper finds that imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings is likely to be overestimated when average unit rent which reflects high unit rent for small dwellings in downtown is used to calculate imputed rent for large owner-occupied dwellings mainly located in the suburbs, and conversely, that imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings is likely to be underestimated if rent function is used to calculate imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings, and if the function faultily captures an apparent negative correlation between unit rent and floor space when location differences are not fully controlled for. This paper, using over 200 thousand realty rental advertisements in Metropolitan Tokyo, downloaded via Internet, then, examines the effectiveness of various estimation techniques used to control for location differences in estimating rent equations. Major findings include; i) stratification by area may not improve the performance of the set of area-wise rent functions; ii) use of area dummies in pooled estimate may not improve much the performance of the estimated rent function, either; and iii) alternative specifications can significantly improve the performance of rent functions, regardless of whether samples are stratified by area or not. To conclude, this paper proposes that i) National Accounts estimates of imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings are calculated based on regional estimates, ii) in both National and Regional Accounts, imputed rent is calculated for each category of building structures, iii) National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure utilizes detailed information on housing location already available in Housing and Land Survey, or employs alternative specifications of rent function. Large discrepancies among official data for imputed rent for owner-occupied
dwellings in Japan are expected to narrow significantly if these proposals are adopted by statistical agencies. The final goal is that one single estimate of imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings which utilize best available information provide the common benchmark for all other statistics.
15 2,866 61.2 15 52 GDP SNA 12 1
12 49.9 m 2 m 2 ( * 12 21.1 12 24.2 3.1 m 2 m 2 12 44.0 49.9 11 7 9,193 10 26,268 1 12 25.2 49.9 12 24.7 * 93SNA 12 11 15 http://www5.cao.go.jp/2000/g/1115g-93sna/93suikei6.pdf 1999 12 2
59,168 44,560 7,145 6,904 ( ) 1,111,681 738,308 213,855 204,662 (m 2 ) 104.4 132.6 47.9 48.0 () 23,432 13,138 57,592 58,285 14,986 1,036 56,601 57,310 8,446 12,102 991 975 1,334 1,865 229 235 7,112 10,237 762 740 [ ] 52,595 79,193 - - 11 42 11 10 10 (1) (2) 3 (3) 3 (4) 4 * ln y ( i ) = a i + b ij x j + j c i ln S i y x j S m 2 a i,b ij,c j 1 m 2 597 m 2 1,194 m 2 4 (1) * 11 VIII 3
(4) 1994 1990 NEEDS-RADER 1989 8 8 2 4
1989 NEEDS-RADER NEEDS-RADER PER -24 93.96 25-29 96.90 163.05 36.8 30-34 101.76 135.87 36.8 35-39 100.08 133.19 37.9 40-44 98.16 135.20 37.8 45-49 98.22 156.35 36.8 50-54 98.52 166.58 36.8 55-59 103.20 163.05 36.8 60-64 103.62 217.40 36.8 65-69 100.56 206.53 36.8 PERPrice Earnings Ratio 1994 1 1995 1988 1989 1989 76.1 68.8 5560% -24 115.4 104.8 50-134.6 109.5 25-148.4 136.9 55-141.2 110.1 30-154.5 133.9 60-136.4 109.5 35-143.0 124.3 65-137.4 104.9 40-141.3 119.2 70-133.7 97.8 45-138.5 115.2 75+ 131.3 103.2 1995 46 1 5
2000 3 1995 No211994 6 1 50 m 2 1996 50 m 2 2332.6232.0058 (21.377)(2.01) 19.0296 14.4318 u () (-6.131) (-4.907) R 0.2722 R^ = 0.2609 158.42074.9062 32680.78 (11.409) *** (4.273) *** (11.609) *** 14.5824 20.7048 u () (-5.197) *** (-7.556) *** R 0.5509, adjustedr 0.5446, F(4,285)88.00, Prob>F=0.00 6
1359.1493.5331( )31713.32(1 ) (10.633) *** (3.169) *** (11.225) *** 2.0310-28 exp( )45.1715( )0.7777( ) u (-2.891) *** (-8.312) *** (5.037) *** () R 0.5488, adjustedr 0.5409, F(5,286)69.58, Prob>F=0.00 8 http://www.geocities.co.jp/silkroad/3841/chap8.pdf 2001 6 5 i 0.849 151 m 2 ii 0.646 151 m 2 iii 1.326 1 51 m 2 51 m 2 7
WLS i ii 51 m 2 iii 51 m 2 9.667***(0.0067) 10.066***(0.0077) 7.994***(0.0193) -0.159***(0.0017) -0.143***(0.0020) -0.15*** (0.002) -0.054***(0.0009) -0.044***(0.0009) -0.071***(0.0016) -0.253***(0.0015) -0.175***(0.0015) -0.337***(0.0025) 0.849***(0.0012) 0.646***(0.0017) 1.326***(0.0038) -0.064***(0.0006) -0.061***(0.0006) -0.077***(0.0011) 0.572***(0.0798) 0.356 (0.2208) 2.004***(0.0772) D 0.012 (0.0126) -0.082* (0.0482) 0.007 (0.0095) D -0.022** (0.0088) -0.024 (0.0231) -0.004 (0.0068) D -0.131***(0.0148) -0.001 (0.0439) -0.062***(0.0112) D-0.030* (0.0162) -0.052 (0.0421) -0.440***(0.0162) D-0.030***(0.0061) -0.019 (0.0182) -0.019***(0.0046) AdjR 2 0.800 0.665 0.754 143210 88560 54650 F 27302.7 8356.5 7977.8 2000 3 8 D ****** 1 5 10 2001 No422001.3 m 2 m 2 8
m 2 m 2 16 10 17 (1)(5) 27 (1) 1 (2) m 2 m 2 m 2 m 2 *http://www.isize.jutakujoho.jp/shuto/fr/ 9
23 N=196,590 N=102,136 N=94,454 Ln (rent) = 9.158507 + 0.638078 Ln (floor) Ln (rent) = 8.780275 + 0.801983 Ln (floor) Ln (rent) = 9.336957 + 0.530797 Ln (floor) 10
23 N=102,136 N=94,454 Ln (rent) = 9.194637 dum_23 + 8.790839 dum_00 + 0.682773 Ln (floor) 10 11
) 10 12 50 m 2 12
N=196,590 23 N=102,136 N=94,454 unit rent = 1119.085 + 8.615180 (floor) + 41205.82 (1/floor) unit rent = 1977.829 + 8.322346 (floor) + 31153.81 (1/floor) unit rent = 1043.529 + 1.277251 (floor) + 36065.50 (1/floor) 13
4 1015 11 11 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14.4 17.1 18.5 19.8 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.3 24.2 26.0 12.4 14.9 16.3 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.7 21.5 22.4 2.0 (16.1) 2.2 (14.8) 2.2 (13.5) 2.6 (15.1) 2.9 (16.1) 2.9 (15.5) 2.8 (14.4) 2.6 (12.6) 2.7 (12.6) 3.6 (16.1) 16 16 14
12 12 12 11.3 20.7 27.3 38.8 52.9 56.2 44.0 50 55 60 2 7 12 SNA 10.9 19.8 27.9 40.2 54.1 61.2-0.4-0.9 0.6 1.4 1.2 5.0 8.7 15.9 22.7 32.4 43.8 49.9 5.9 SNA 50 SNA 60 4 7 55 2 2 SNA 8 3 712 SNA 7 16 3 5060 12 CD-ROM 12 3 212 15 GDP http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/qe043-2/gdemenuja.html 12 12 2-7-12 12 12 2 7 12 2 12 10 13 60 SNA 15
60 5 60 2 3 60 SNA 2 10 2 7 5 2 SNA 15 10 15 5 5 7 10 14 4 7.5 7 141 1 16
12 142 50 54 59 (1) (2) 3 (3)4 3 (1) (2) 3 (3) 3 (4) 4 4 1 3 4 6 142 59 14 1 (2 ) (79,193) (57,310) 54 59 6 11 131.6 135.3 138.2 m 2 (132.6) 29,160 38,420 63,798 87,858 80,774 m 2 484.8 649.4 584.5 (597.2) 56.6 58.9 59.6 m 2 (48.0) 23,718 34,019 41,842 58,871 64,670 m 2 739.3 999.5 1,085.1 (,194.0) 11 2 17
54 59 6 11 15.9 22.7 32.4 43.8 49.9 6.8 10.0 17.6 25.7 25.2 9.1 (133.8) 12.7 (127.0) 14.8 (84.1) 18.1 (70.4) 24.7 (98.0) ( ) ( 1,943 ) 2,165 2,295 2,438 2,647 16 54 1 2 20 59 1 28 1 22 6 1 22 11 I 22 42 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/zensho/1999/submenu1.htm 10 6 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jyutaku/1998/8.htm 10 1% 18
15 15 10 20 19
20 2004 (1) (2) 10 15 (1) (2) GDP
21
93SNA VI 6.89. IX 99.58. IX 7 3 2ILO CPI ILO CPI CPI 93SNA CPI CPI 22
CPI security of tenure ability to modify the dwelling ILOCPI 10 http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/cpi/ch10.pdf 3 GDP (2002) (2003) (2002) (2003) (2003) (2001) (2002) 11.3 19.1 12.7 12.1 9.2 14.5 GDP 8.0 10.6 5.4 7.0 7.3 5.9 8.0 National Accounts of OECD Countries, Detailed Tables, Volume II, 1991-2002 15 GDP 4 1970 1980 1990 2003 64.18 65.58 63.95 68.25 41.00 39.00 43.60 47.00 55.02 56.22 59.00 68.00 80.00 73.00 78.00 82.90 42.00 45.00 53.00 74.00 79.30 76.92 60.00 61.00 62.00 50.00 55.00 66.00 70.00 60.00 62.00 63.00 65.20 71.00 72.00 70.00 IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2004 2003 79.7% 15 23
5 GDP 55 60 2 12 15 12.2 13.1 14.0 16.1 17.8 19.1 GDP 6.6 7.0 7.4 8.8 9.8 10.6 15 15 GDP 24
15 GDP http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/qe043-2/gdemenuja.html 16 12 CD-ROM 16 16 3 2 SNA 8 3 SNA 60 4 7 15 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jyutaku/2003/3.htm 10 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jyutaku/1998/8.htm 10 11 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/zensho/1999/submenu1.htm 54 59 6 11 12 50 55 60 2 7 1293SNA 12 11 15 http://www5.cao.go.jp/2000/g/1115g-93sna/93suikei6.pdf 13 1993 7 3 14ILO2004, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX MANUAL: THEORY AND PRACTICE, Chapter 10 SOME SPECIAL CASES http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/cpi/ch10.pdf 15OECD2004, National Accounts of OECD Countries, Detailed Tables, Volume II, 1991-2002 16IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2004 17 1999 18 1994 19 1995 46 25
1 20 1995 No.1261-66 21 1996 vol. 12, No.1, 2-8 22 8 http://www.geocities.co.jp/silkroad/3841/chap8.pdf 23 2001 No422001.3 24 2004 No54 2004 Autumn 26