IEEJ: 20067 2030 06 710 1
IEEJ: 20067 2
IEEJ: 20067 06 0606 3
4 IEEJ: 20067 3 4 05 05 571 571 4 05 05 592 592 2 2 05 05 24 24 3 03 03 23 23
5 IEEJ: 20067 90 90 GDP=551 GDP=551 90 90 05 05 6 11 11 90 90 04 04 45 45 90 90 04 04
6 IEEJ: 20067 85 85 2 98 98 50 50 85 85 02 02 50 50 03 03 50 50
7 IEEJ: 20067 = 0 ) ( ) / ( ) ( dx x h x p x y P Q 3 / /
IEEJ: 20067 y( x) = 2 α = exp( µ + 1 πσ 1 σ 2 x 2 ) exp{ 2 1 σ G (log x u) 2 2 σ = 2F( 0,1) 1 2 } / 2 2 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 8
IEEJ: 20067 p = ( x) a( x b ) 1+ e k h( x) = 6.6206 0.4034 log( x) h ( x) = 8.3439-0.5483 log( x) 99.8 99.3 99.6 a=0.018794 =0.018794 b =32973 9
IEEJ: 20067 2003 2010 64,980 71,820 12,879 4,083 0.401.1 0.431.1 2020 82,365 62,135 23,343 7,400 0.371.1 0.421.1 2030 93,000 57,000 37,669 11,942 0.321.1 0.351.1 10
11 11 IEEJ: 20067 2030 2030 Q R Run Run
IEEJ: 20067 14743 12
13 13 IEEJ: 20067 30 30
14 14 IEEJ: 20067 10 10 30 30
IEEJ: 20067 15
IEEJ: 20067 22789 06 0606 1 TK GDP RT Log(TK)=-1.83331+0.79476Log(GDP)+0.28338Log(RT) 2 CM POP GDP Log(CM/POP)=-4.62048+1.71481Log(GDP/POP) 3 PU 0.82719-55.531 8.8651Log x -0.5 P PR 1.8525-55.531 8.8651Log x -0.5 P P 4 2004 30 22789 15.2 / 1 =3 =10 24794 16.5 / 23 23 60 18 65 / 05 4.1 16
IEEJ: 20067 2 7 17
IEEJ: 20067 90 1.18 05 3.0 1.8 1.2 96 10 40 18
IEEJ: 20067 y = 6.4728x -0.3806 R 2 = 0.9779 81 IEA 06 10 1 3 1 30 1.1 2.6 IEA 04 2.4 04 2.5 ERI 05 2.9 EDMC 06 3.1 IEA 37 37 ERI 41 EDMC 43 30 2.5 3.0 40 19
IEEJ: 20067 04 7820 4474 3346 25 80 12 90 19 2000 21 IEA 30 57 03 05 3180 24 20 /1000
IEEJ: 20067 21
IEEJ: 20067 1015 GB/T19233-2003 NEDC New European Driving Cycle NEDC 1015 NEDC/Japan 1.23 1 2 1 The Pew Center on Global Climate Change 04 COMPARISON OF PASSENGER VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION STANDARDS AROUND THE WORLD www.pewclimate.org 2 www.sina.com 04 6 ( CAFE ) 1 05/06 7 5-10 2 08/09 7 1 10 1 50 03 22
23 23 IEEJ: 20067 1 60 60 10 10 04 04 1.5 1.5t 1650 1650CC CC NEDC NEDC 9.1 9.1L/100km( L/100km( 2 ) 1616 1616CC CC 10 10 15 15 13.5 13.5km/L km/l NEDC NEDC 6.1 6.1L/100km L/100km ( 1 ) 100 100km km 3L 33 33 1 18 IEEJ/EDMC 06 2 03
24 24 IEEJ: 20067 2004 063 100km/h JEO5 2015 12.2 60km/h (60km/h) (JE05)*0.75 0.75 2001-2002 2t 3.57.5t 60km/h (JE05) 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.8 33 33
25 25 IEEJ: 20067 1-15 15 04 04 1-11 11 58 58 V MPI MPI 395 395 5 600 600 0415
26 26 IEEJ: 20067 065 18 61
IEEJ: 20067 065 85 80 94 27
28 28 IEEJ: 20067 CO CO 89 89 99 99 00 00 04 04 07 07 10 10 4
IEEJ: 20067 500ppm 10 50ppm ppm 29
IEEJ: 20067 2004 03 213 80 RV 98 03 1.46L 1.6L 03 1.67L 30
31 31 IEEJ: 20067 04 04 80 80 1 2 0641 3 4 5 6 660cc 800cc 7 1.6L 1.8L
32 32 IEEJ: 20067 1.5 1.5L 1.5 1.5L 100 100CC CC 0.3 0.3L/100km L/100km 150 150CC CC 0.45 0.45L/100km L/100km 6 30 30 5 10001400CC 17012200CC 062 http://kurumart.jp/ranking/index.html 1 10 15 km/l L/100km 100CC 100CC 06
IEEJ: 20067 20 3 33
IEEJ: 20067 HBV HBV 28 23 25 30 50 =100 European Commission (May 06), Well-to- Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context, A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE14 34
35 35 IEEJ: 20067 33 33 30 30 50 50 14 14 5
IEEJ: 20067 3 7 36
IEEJ: 20067 90 863 03 15 22 21 16.7 30 36 86 200 37
IEEJ: 20067 03 2 E10 6 6 11 38
IEEJ: 20067 39
IEEJ: 20067 / 06 04 40
IEEJ: 20067 94 04 41
IEEJ: 20067 01 06 42
43 43 IEEJ: 20067 3 10 10 01 01-05 05 01 01 11 11 06 06-10 10 06 06
44 44 IEEJ: 20067 150 150 100 100
45 45 IEEJ: 20067 99 99 12 12 16 16 04 04 CNGV CNGV 10.1 10.1 LPGV LPGV 11.4 11.4 CNGV CNGV 5.2 5.2 1.9 1.9 LPGV LPGV 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.2 LPGV LPGV 03 03 CNG CNG 30 30 8 LNGV LNGV 11 11 20 20 2
46 46 IEEJ: 20067 ) ) 96 96 99 99 01 01 3 02 02 5 04 04 06 06 1)5 1)5 2)17 2)17 3) 3) 4) 4) 05 05 450 450 20 20 100 100 06 06 130 130 4
47 47 IEEJ: 20067 MV) MV) 04 04 600 600 75 75 04 04 441 441 500 500 1000 1000 1900 1900 MV MV 70 70 3) 3)FFV FFV ) 02 02 4 M15 M15 M100 M100
IEEJ: 20067 DME DMEV) DME 04 5 05 15 83 DME 11 > DME DME 97 03 DME 1 06 DME 30 DME 08 10 05 48 05 DME
IEEJ: 20067 85 99-02 02 Euphorbia tim-calli calli 6 2 1.2 1 2 49
IEEJ: 20067 CTL) 3000 04 50 07 1 100 20 2000 吨 2000 116 潞 15 520 20 800 6 NEDO 汶 7 10 3t/d CTLV 50
51 51 IEEJ: 20067 90 90 EV EV HBV HBV FCV FCV 863 863
IEEJ: 20067 EV 50 6 5 22 1 95 20 3 3 52
53 53 IEEJ: 20067 HBV HBV VW VW GM GM 99 99 HBV HBV 02 02 863 863 05 05 12 12 HBV HBV 2 DS DS 30 30 HBV HBV EQ6110HEV EQ6110HEV 06 06 5 20 20 05 05 12 12 28.22 28.22 395 395 5 600 600 1178 1178 06 06 3000 3000 HBV HBV 08 08
54 54 IEEJ: 20067 FCV FCV FCV FCV 98 98 5kW kw 06 06 20 20 3 FC FC UNDP UNDP 1 3 05 05 2 3 MPV MPV 2 3 3000 3000 06 06 10 10 3 08 08 100 100 10 10 1000 1000 12 12 1
IEEJ: 20067 5 04 04 ( CO2 WTW CO2 55
56 56 IEEJ: 20067 1145 1145 05 05 BP BP 2km km 5.57 5.57k t 1.02 1.02k t 3 94 94 HP HP 1 3000 3000 >1000 >1000 500 500 3 10000 10000
57 57 IEEJ: 20067 1064 1064 2756 2756 / 17 17 43 43 / <20 <20 / 30 30 1500 1500 / 17 17 5 300 300 / 4000 4000 / 06 062 200/ 40%
IEEJ: 20067 06 062 58
IEEJ: 20067 WTW European Commission (May 06), Well-to- Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context, A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE European Commission Well-To To-Wheel 59
IEEJ: 20067 60
61 61 IEEJ: 20067 30 30 2000 2000 20 20 1600 1600 2000 2000 06 06 4 11 11 5 12 12 5 15 15 20 20 15 15 (HP) HP) 10 10 600 600 ( 500 500 100 100) 20 20 1900 1900 ( 1000 1000 900) 900)
62 62 IEEJ: 20067 30 30 2.5 2.5 48 48 2.6 2.6 1.0 1.0
IEEJ: 20067 63
64 64 IEEJ: 20067 2 05 05 04 04 1 4/8/22 4/8/22 4/9/9 4/9/9 4/9 4/9 04/04 04/04 5 06/04/15 06/04/15
IEEJ: 20067 : report@tky.ieej.or.jp 65