01M3065
1 4 1.1........................... 4 1.2........................ 5 1.3........................ 6 2 8 2.1.......................... 8 2.2....................... 9 3 13 3.1............................. 13 3.2............................. 15 3.3............................... 17 3.4............................... 17 3.5....................... 18 4 20 4.1.......................... 20 4.2....................... 21 4.3........................... 23 4.4............................... 24 4.5.................. 31 4.6................................ 32 A 34 1
14 2001 1400 1 2 Diamond 2 1 3 2 2
4 3 3
1 1.1 1) 2015 4 65 1.1 1.1: 12 P.13 1) 4
1.1 1985 65.6 50.0 2000 2001 1985 20.1 14.3 1999 32% 18% 2000 2001 30.1% 16.5% 1987 1988 3% 1999 32.0 18.0 2 10 1.2 1949 5
1950 1953 1988 2003 1 1.3 15 5 20 25 1 50 5% 20% 5% 25 1 50 35% 20% 6
2 20% 6% 26% 5% 20% 2003 5 5.25% 20% 18% 7
2 2.1 Dynasty Model 1928 Ramsey Overlapping Generations Model) 2 Diamond(1965) Diamond Auerbach and Kotlikoff(1987) Auerbach and Kotlikoff cobb-dagulas Branchard and Fisher (1989) Azariadis(1993) Summers(1981) Chamely and Wright(1987) 8
2.2 Diamond(1965) 1) 2.1 t t +1 t +2 t +1 t +2 t +1 t t +1 t +2 t +3 1 C y,t C o,t+1 2 C y,t+1 C o,t+2 3 C y,t+2 C o,t+3 2.1: w t s t c y,t r t+1 c o,t+1 t c y,t = w t s t (2.1) c o,t+1 = (1+r t+1 )s t (2.2) 1) Diamond(1965) 9
(2.1) (2.2) c y,t + c o,t+1 1+r t+1 = w t (2.3) u t = u(c y,t,c o,t+1 ) (2.4) u t (2.4) (2.3) w t r t+1 u u =(1+r t+1 ) (2.5) c y,t c o,t+1 (2.5) (2.5) (2.1) s t = s(w t,r t+1 ) (2.6) K t L t Y t = F(K t,l t ) (2.7) Y t n L t =(1+n)L t 1 (2.8) (2.7) L t y t = f(k t ) (2.9) 10
y t k t = K t /L t f (k t+1 )=r t+1 (2.10) w t = f(k t ) f (k t )k t (2.11) (2.10) (2.11) (2.10) (2.11) w t r t w(r t ) 2) s t L t = K t+1 s t = 1 1+n k t+1 (2.12) 2 3) steady state (2.6) (2.10) (2.11) (2.12) k t+1 = 1 1+n s[f(k t) f (k t )k t,f (k t+1 )] = φ(k t ) (2.13) (2.13) uniqueness globally Ihori(1996) 4) 2) w(r t ) lim k 0 φ (k t ) > 0 lim f (k t )=0 k φ (k) 0 for all k > 0 3) (2.12) 4) k t+1 = φ(k t ) φ (k) 0 for all k > 0 ds 0 for all (w,r) 0 dr 11
0 <φ < 1 (2.14) 3 4 3 12
3 3.1 c yt+1 c o,t+1 U t (3.1) U t = ( 1 c 1 1/γ y,t + 1 ) 1 1/γ 1+δ c1 1/γ o,t+1 (3.1) (3.1) γ δ 0 <γ<1 δ >0 s t =(1 ω)w t + g (1 + θ t )c y,t (3.2) s t t w t t g ω θ t t (3.2) 13
s t = 1+θ t+1 1+(1 ρ)r t+1 c o,t+1 (3.3) r t+1 t +1 ρ θ t+1 t +1 (3.3) (3.2) (3.3) (1 ω)w t + g =(1+θ t )c y,t + (3.4) t 1+θ t+1 1+(1 ρ)r t+1 c o,t+1 (3.4) (3.4) (3.1) L = 1 1 1/γ +λ ( c 1 1/γ y,t + 1 ) 1+δ c1 1/γ o,t+1 { (1 ω)w t + g (1 + θ t )c y,t (3.5) } 1+θ t+1 c 1+(1 ρ)r o,t+1 t+1 (3.5) L = c 1/γ y,t λ (1 + θ t ) (3.6) c y,t L c o,t+1 = 1 1+δ c 1/γ o,t λ ( 1+θ t+1 1+(1 ρ)r t+1 L λ = (1 ω)w t + g (1 + θ t )c y,t ) (3.7) 1+θ t+1 1+(1 ρ)r t+1 c o,t+1 (3.8) (3.9) (3.6) (3.7) λ λ = c 1/γ y,t 1+θ t (3.10) λ = 1+(1 ρ)r t+1 (1 + θ t+1 )(1 + δ) c o,t+1 (3.11) 14
(3.10) (3.11) ( ) γ ( ) 1+θt 1+(1 γ ρ)rt+1 c o,t+1 = c y,t (3.12) 1+θ t+1 1+δ (3.12) (3.4) c y,t (1 + θ t+1 ) γ 1 (1 + θ t ) 1 (1 + δ) γ {(1 ω)w t + g} c y,t = (1 + θ t+1 ) (γ 1) (1 + δ) γ +(1+θ t ) γ 1 (1 + (1 ρ)r t+1 ) γ 1 (3.13) (3.13) (3.2) s t = {(1 ω)w t + g}(1 + θ t ) γ 1 (1 + δ) γ (1 + θ t+1 ) γ 1 +(1+θ t ) γ 1 {1+(1 ρ)r t+1 } γ 1 (3.14) 3.2 K t L t cobb-douglas α 0 <α<1 Y t = K α t L1 α t (3.15) Π n Π=Y t w t L t r t K t (3.16) L t+1 =(1+n)L t (3.17) (3.15) (3.16) L t (3.15) L t Y t L t = Kα t L t L t L α t (3.18) 15
(3.18) y t = k α t (3.19) y t k t (3.15) f(0) = 0 f ( ) = 0 f (0) = L t (3.16) L t π = y t w t r t k t (3.20) π (3.20) y t w t r r k t (3.21) (3.20) (3.19) k α t w t r t k t = 0 (3.22) (3.22) k t r t = αk α 1 t (3.23) w t = (1 α)k α t (3.24) 16
(3.23) (3.24) 3.3 TR ω ρ c 1,t τ c L t c 2,t τ c L t 1 L t TR = ωw t L t + ρr t K t + θ t c y,t L t + θ t c o,t L t 1 gl t (3.25) (3.25) 1 L t tr = ωw t + ρr t k t + θ t c y,t + θ tc o,t 1+n g (3.26) 3.4 K t+1 = s t L t (3.27) (3.27) t +1 t (3.27) L t 17
k t+1 = 1 1+n s t (3.28) (3.14) (3.23) (3.24) s t = (1 + θ t ) γ 1 {(1 ω)(1 α)kt α + g} (1 + δ) γ (1 + θ γ 1 t+1 +(1+θ t) { γ 1 1+αkt+1 α 1(1 ρ)} γ 1 (3.29) (3.28) (3.29) k t+1 = 1 1+n (1 + θ t ) γ 1 {(1 ω)(1 α)k α t + g} (1 + δ) γ ( 1+θt+1 1+θ t ) γ 1 + { 1+αk α 1 t+1 (1 ρ)} γ 1 (3.30) (3.30) 3.5 (3.30) k t,k t+1 1) (3.30) k t+1 k t t t +1 dk t+1 dk t = (1 + n) 1 α(1 + θ t ) γ 1 (1 α)k α 1 (1 + δ) γ + X γ 1 +(γ 1)X γ 2 (1 ρ)α(α 1)k α 2 (3.31) X =1+(1 ρ)r dk t+1 /dk t 0 1 dk t+1 /dk t dk t+1 /dk t > 0 dk t+1 /dk t < 1 1) 18
4 k ρ dk dρ = (1 + θ t ) γ 1 X γ 1 αk α 1 (1 + δ) γ + X γ 1 +(γ 1)X γ 2 (1 ρ)(α 1)αk α 2 (1 ω)(1 α)αk α 1(3.32) (3.32) dk/dρ < 0 k ω dk dω = (1 + θ t ) γ 1 (1 α)k α (1 + δ) γ + X γ 1 +(γ 1)X γ 2 (1 ρ)(α 1)αk α 2 (1 ω)(1 α)αk α 1(3.33) 4 19
4 4.1 4.1. 4.1: α 0.4 9.0 % δ 1.0 20.0 % γ 0.3 5.0 % g 0.03 n 0.01 α α =0.5 α =0.4 1) δ 1 40 δ =1.0 γ t t +1 1) 11 0.42 20
(2002) 9.0 % g0.03 2) 20.0 % 5.0 % 4.2 4.1 (3.30) k t 0 10 3 k t+1 10 10 0 k t k t+1 4.1: 2) (2002)P.9 21
4.2 E k t k t+1 E k E 0.00001 4.0 4.2: 0.0000100 4.0000000 1 0.0225498 0.4891471 2 0.0843197 0.2298213 5 0.1517757 0.1575057 10 0.1551752 0.1551991 15 0.1551894 0.1551895 20 0.1551895 0.1551895 21 0.1551895 0.1551895 0.1551895 0.1551895 4.2 21 21 22
4.3 ω ρ (3.33) (3.32) 4.2: 4.2 5% 18 3 23
14 3 4.3: 4.3 5% 3 4.4 4.1 4.3 24
4.2 4.3 α α 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 α 4.4: (α ) 4.5: (α ) 25
α 4.6: (α ) 4.7: (α ) α cobb-douglas 26
δ δ 4.8: (δ ) 4.9: (δ ) 27
4.10: (δ ) 4.11: (δ ) δ δ 28
γ γ 4.12: (γ ) 4.13: (γ ) γ 29
4.14: (γ ) 4.15: (γ ) γ α δ γ 4.1 30
4.5 0.074 0.03 0.044 CaseA 20% 25% CaseB 20% 15% CaseC 20% 25% CaseD 20% 15% 4.3: CaseA CaseB CaseC CaseD 0.1552 0.1611 0.1495 0.1533 0.1571 1.2233 1.1961 1.2513 1.2326 1.2144 0.2848 0.2891 0.2805 0.2833 0.2862 0.3493 0.3608 0.3382 0.3574 0.3400-37.2165-34.3528-40.3324-35.1730-39.7667 CaseA CaseB CaseA 9.0% 5.5% 39.2% 3.83% 2.23% 1.51% 3.29% 7.69% 31
CaseB 9.0% 12.4% 37.9% 3.69% 2.28% 1.49% 3.18% 8.37% CaseC CaseD CaseC 5.0% 2.9% 42.3% 1.2% 0.76% 0.5% 2.3% 5.5% CaseD 5.0% 7.3% 46.0% 1.23% 0.73% 0.49% 2.67% 6.85% 4.6 Lucas(1990) Lucas 30% (2001) Lucas(1990) 10% 32
Lucas 36% 40 40 33
A (3.30) ( (1 + δ) γ + { 1+αk α 1 t+1 (1 ρ)} γ 1 ) k t+1 =(1+θ t ) γ 1 {(1 ω)(1 α)k α t + g} { (1 + δ) γ + X γ 1 +(γ 1)X γ 2 (1 ρ)(α 1)αk α 2 t+1 } dk t+1 =(1+θ t ) γ 1 (1 ω)(1 α)αkt α 1 dk t dk t dk t+1 dk t = (1 + θ t ) γ 1 (1 ω)(1 α)αk α 1 (1 + δ) γ + X γ 1 +(γ 1)X γ 2 (1 ρ)(α 1)αk α 2 k 0 <dk t+1 /dk t < 1 2 3 34
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