72 53 6
72 1978 6 1 4 1. 4 2. 8 3. 12 17 1. 17 2. 20 ) 20 ) 21 ) 21 ) 22 ) 23 ) 24 ) 24 ) K 24 3. 24 1
31 1. 46 51 31 ) 15 31 ) 32 2. 53 60 33 ) 33 ) 34 ) 34 ) 35 3. 35 38 40 44 45 2
48 49 30 326.1367.9456.8 10 4811.64920.7 48 49 1 48 49 46 483 (1) (2) 1 (1) 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 (2) 2 6 (3) 4 8 4 9 346.5 115.6 195.9 73.2 165.6 25.3 63.3 16.2 38.8 11.6 11.8 15.9 20.7 22.6 31.4 1
48 49 2 3 48 49 47 48 2 47 48 monetary approach Keynesian approach 48~49 48~49 46~48 20 2
a second order error learning model an open economy 50 52 40 48 49 46 48 48 49 Andersen et al 5 a closed economy 3
2 2 (a) y 19201930 2 (b) 4
2 (a) (b) 3 3 (1) (2) (3) 4 (a) (1) (2) (3) (1) 5
4 (a) (b) (2) (3) 4 (b) 1960 1960 1960 6
7
LM IS LM IS 48 49 accepted theory 48 49 (1) (2) 1960 time path time path 8
expectationsaugmented Philips curve Friedman a closed economy C Y f r (1) P P P I g ( r ) (2) Y C I S Y C I (3) P P P P P P M D Y P l r (4) P M S h( r ) (5) M D M S (6) (1) induced (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C I Y r P M D M S i ii iii (7) P P0 (7) (8) P Y y y0 (8) dichotomy Y y0 P (1) (3) 3 C/P I/P r (1) (2)(3)(9) y0 f ( y0 r ) g( r ) (9) r r0 (5) M S M0 (6)(4) (10) M0 P l ( y0 r0) (10) y o l( y0 r0)/y0 V 1/V (11)(12) 9
M V Py (11) MV P (12) y (4) (4a) M D Y l( r ) (4a) (13) dp r ρ P (13) dt ρ dp P dt (14) dy r ρ Y dy dt y dt dy ρ g Y (14) dt g ρ g ρ g K0 M D Y l( r ) (4a) M S h( r ) (5) M D M S (6) dy r K0 Y (15) dt dy Y dt M D M S Y r 4 M (t) (4a) (5) (6) M ( t) Y (t) (16) l ( r ) Y (t) V (r) M (t) (17) V (17) (15)(17) (1) (3) (15) (17) (1) ( expectations hypothesis ) 10
1970 Andersen et al 5 reduced form 5 1953I 1969IV 4 m 1 f 1 0 m5 f5 0 ΔY t 2.67 4 ΔM t i 4 mi fi ΔF t i i 0 i 0 (3.46) R 2 0.66 S 3.84 DW 1.75 m0 1.22(2.73) f0 0.56(2.57) m1 1.80(7.34) f1 0.45(3.43) m2 1.62(4.25) f2 0.01(0.08) m3 0.87(3.65) f30.43( 3.18) m4 0.06(0.12) f40.54(2.47) m i 5.57(8.06) f i 0.05(0.17) () 1. ΔYt t GNP ΔM t i t i M1 ΔF t i t i high-employment 2. 5 5 explicit (1) 11
(2) 3 4 5 2 MPS MIT-Penn- Social Science Research Council econometric model 30 3. 6 6 48 6.7 10.0 23.2 18.2 21.8 6.2 9.3 20.5 17.5 23.0 12
48 2 3 4 price-taker M. Parkin 10 the low of one price tradables nontradables 13
M. Blejer 9 the expectaions-augmented excess demand model of price determination R. Cross and Laidler 11F. Spinelli 12 A. Horseman 13 Parkin et al 14 Genberg 15 M. Parkin and G. W. Smith 14 () Cross and Laidler 11 product differentia tion 14
45 70 97 L. C. Andersen and J. L. Jordan 6 / Keran M, W. 7 2 9 15
16 5 I
1. 7 2 8 712 12 7 (1) T ΔY t f 1 ΔM t ΔM t n ΔE t ΔE t n Δ Δ T Y t Y t n (2) P t f2 D t D t n P e t 1P m t P e t 1 (3) D t ΔY t ( X F t X t 1 ) (4) X t Y t /P t (5) P e t P e t 1 f3p w t P e t 1 P w t 1 P e t 2DMK t XDUM ZDUM (6) U t f4 G t 3 (7) G t X F t X t F 100 t X (8) Y t Y t 1 ΔY t (9) P t P t 1P t 1 P t /100 (10) X X t X t 1 t 100 X t 1 (11) P w t f5 D t D t n P e t 1P m t P e t 1) (12) K M t DMK t 100 ( 69.272 0.1822T 0.001384T 2 ) Yt 1. ΔY t 2. P t 3. D t 4. X t / 5. P e t 10 10 17
6. U t 7. G t 8. Y t 9. P t 10. X t 11. P w t 12. DMK t K 2 1. ΔM t (M2) 2. ΔE t 3. X F t 45 T 4. Δ / Y t 5. P m t 6. XDUM 46 7 91.0 0 7. ZDUM 49 1 31.0 0 8. T 40 7 91 10 451.0 10 (1) 3 reduced form (2) (3) ( X F t X t 1 ) (4) (ΔY ) (1)(2) (4) (5) K 2 (6) (7) (8) (10) (11) (2) (5) (2) (12)K/ 8 18
8 G N P K 19
(1) K 2. 40 51 40 4 652 1 3 / 3 2 9 405240 4 6 52 1 3 3 m 1 e 1 t 1 0 m5 e5 t5 0 ΔY t 4 mi ΔM t i 4 ei ΔE t i 4 T 488.55 ti Δ i 0 i 0 i 0 (1.57) Y R 2 0.711 S 955.9 DW 1.785 m0 0.0021(0.01) e0 0.4106(3.90) t0563.1( 2.23) m1 0.1297(1.13) e1 0.3156(2.66) t1477.6( 1.90) m2 0.2882(7.92) e20.0289( 0.26) t2 61.2( 0.34) m3 0.3825(2.88) e30.3671( 2.90) t3 368.8( 1.60) m4 0.3181(2.03) e40.4428( 3.95) t4 495.0( 2.09) m i 1.1208 e i 0.1126 t i 238.0 ΔY t t 10 ΔM t i t i M2 10 ΔE t i t i 10 Δ Y T t i t i t i 20
5 2 3 (1) (2) ii D t D t ΔY t (X F t X t 1 ) ΔY t t X F t t II X t 1 t 1 X F t X t 1 ΔY X F t X t 1 iii 1 1,900 6 Carson, Parkin 16 I 10 2a second order error 10 44 I 52 I P e t P e t 1 0.2297 0.3102(P w t P e t 1) 0.1787(P w t 1 P e t 2) (5.21) (8.45) ( 6.51) 1.671XDUM 4.021ZDUM 0.03933DMK t ( 6.71) ( 11.22) (2.81) R 2 0.883 S 0.24 DW 2.17 P e t =t P w t =t XDUM 46 7 9 1.0 0 ZDUM 49 1 3 1.0 DMK t =t KM2/ 21
learning model46 49 K 2 M. Parkin 18D. E. Rose P W t 6 P e t 1 31 P e t 18 46 7 9 1967 11 48 48 48 49 1 3 4 6 46 48 inertia II3 11 II3 22
11 40 II 52 I 3 d 1 0 d3 0 P w t 2 di D t i P e t 1 (P m t P e 0.068 0.9791 0.2810 t 1) (0.37) i 0 (7.42) (6.95) R 2 0.882 S 0.86 DW 1.387 d0 0.0001047(1.68) d1 0.0000605(3.16) d20.0000139( 0.22) d t 0.0001512 P w t t D t i t i P e t 1 t 1 P m t t v 12 6 12 40 II 52 I 3 d 1 0 d4 0 P 3 t d i D t i P e t 1 (P m t P e 1.138 0.595 0.185 t 1) i 0 (10.41) (7.74) (7.67) R 2 0.899 S 0.51 DW 2.339 d0 0.0000294(1.25) d1 0.0000341(2.46) d2 0.0000242(1.55) d3 0.0000095(0.38) d i 0.0000973 P t t D t t P e t 1 t 1 P m t t 23
52 10 12 Y t P t 13 13 42 II 51 I U t 1.149 0.0723G t 3 (41.16) (12.39) R 2 0.922 S 0.109 DW 1.23 U t t G t 3 t 3 K K 40 7 9 M 2 100 T 60.27 0.00138 2 0.1822 T Y (52.03) (0.60) (1.51) R 2 0.771 40 1 3. 5 9 10 11 12 13 7 14A L 44 51 46 47 24
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