3 1 2 (2007) 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 JEL H55 Key words public pension social security subsidy general accounts sustainability generational accounts 1 2004 2000 2009 3 1 2 1 65 ecms1019@kwansei.ac.jp 1
1 (2005) (2004) 1 1995 2005 1 (2005) (2006) 1: 2 3 4 5 2 2.1 (2007) 2 2 2: 2.2 2.2.1 Auerbach, Gokhale and Kotlikoff(1991) Gokhale 1 2004 2004 (2005) (2006) (2005) (2004) (2007) (2007) 2 (2008) 2
and Smetters(2003) (1996) Takayama, Kitamura and Yoshida(1999) (2005) SNA SNA SNA SNA 3 18 (2005) (2005) SNA 1 4 1: 2.2.2 (1) t N t, k + N t, k G s W g t (1) k=t D k=t+1 s=t N t,k k D G s W g t t N t,k (2) N t,k = k+d s=max(t,k) ( ) 1 s (t+1) τ s,k P s,k (2) 1 + r s P s,k s k τ s,k s k r s ( ) (3) X = (GE s GR s ) W g t (3) s=t 3 Auerbach, Gokhale and Kotlikoff(1991) (2005) 4 Appendix 3
X GE s s GR s s GE s t k i g t,k,i ρ s k i g s,k,i P s,k (4) GE s = k g s,k,i = (1 + ρ) s t g t,k,i g t,k,i = GE t,k,i P t,a i ( ) 1 s t g s,k,i P s,k (4) 1 + r g s,k,i s i GE s,i α i,k P k (5) α k,i P k 1 g s,k,i = GE i k α (5) k,ip k P k α i,k GR s (6) GR s = ( ) (1 + ρ) s t 1 s t τ s,a,l P s,a (6) 1 + r k l l j T j (7) T k = γp k τ l + (1 γ) P k 0 (7) τ k γ τ j (8) τ j = T k P k (8) = γp k τ k + (1 γ) P k 0 P k = γp k τ k P k = γτ k 2007 2105 5 2007 5 2105 4
2006 2011 2015 3 2 131.6 37.6 6 2: 3 3 3 4.5 3: 3 3 1 2 1 169.2 525.8 3: 2 1 2011 2015 23 (2005) (2004) 6 open group 5
4 4.1 3 1 2000 2006 2006 2006 4 7 4: 2006 2007 2011 2006 2012 2011 4 2006 2 2 1 3 9 9 4: 2006 5 486.9 230.3 264.0 3421.3 2645.3 776.0 5: 2006 : 2006 2011 2015 19 7 2006 2 3 6
4.2 4.2.1 1 2 1 8 2 4.2.2 2006 2011 2011 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 2 1 3 2 4 3 4.2.3 6 8 7
6: 2 2 1 163.2 3 2 59.4 103.8 4 3 28.7 30.7 2 1 4.8 3 2 3.9 4 3 10.1 5 2 1 3 2 3 4 5: 2 1 4 3 5 7 3 2 7 3 2 162.9 157.0 172.7 9.8 15.7 7: 4 3 230.0 242.3 259.0 16.7 29.0 2011 2015 3 2 17 4 3 16 8
4.3 2 2006 GDP 2011 0 2012 1.5 GDP 2011 0 2011 1.9 9 2006 8 6 9 8 2 1 4 3 6 7 1 8: 6 2006 2011 2015 6: 9 7 2 1 10 3 2 13 4 3 12 9: 9 2012 9
5 1 2 2006 3 4 A A.1 15 65 10
65 ) 0 2 3 4 5 9 10 12 3 4 0 4 10 12 10 14 18 A.2 1 3 7 9 5 9 4 6 10 12 10 14 1 2 13 14 10 14 3 15 15 19 0 4 15 19 20 24 11
A.3 1957 1962 2006 65 69 A.4 A.5 20 60 A.6 Auerbach, Gokhale and Ktlikoff(1991) (=? ) 1 1 A.7 1 12
A.8 1 A.9 A.10 1 A.11 1 A.12 1 1 1 A.13 13
A.14 [1] Auerbach, Alan, J.,Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (1991), Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting, in Bradford, David eds, Tax Policy and Economy, Vol.5, MIT Press. [2] Gokhale, Jagadeesh and Kent Smetters(2003),Fiscal and Generational Imbalances, AEI Press. [3] Takayama Noriyuki, Yukinobu Kitamura, and Hiroshi Yoshida (1999), Generational Accounting in Japan. in Auerbach, Kotlikoff and Leibfritzin eds., Generational Accounting around the World, NBER. [4] (1996) No.39. [5] (2005) 2004 HIA Discussion Paper No.10. [6] (2006) HIS Discussion Paper No.16. [7] (2005) 16. [8] (2005) 2004. [9] (2004) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-J-019. [10] (2006) 2006. [11] (2007) RIETI Discussion Paper Series 07-J-019. [12] (2007) No.38. [13] (2008) KG-SANKEN Discussion Paper No.3. [14] (2005) 2000 DP-287. 14