1

2...5...6...7...7...7...8...8...8...9...10...10... 11... 11... 11... 11... 11...13...13...14...14...15...15...16...16...18...18...19...20...20...20...20...21...21...22...22

3...23...23...23...24...24...24...24...25...25...25...26...26...26...26...26...27...27...27...27...28...28...28...29...30 OPEC...31...31...32...32...35 OPEC...35...35...36...38...39...40...41

4...42...43...44...52...52...53...53...53...54...55...55...65...65...71...74...74...74...75...77...78...80...81...82...82...88...92...92...93

20 21 100% 5

6

1 60 60 70 2 20 1 1997 30-31 2 1997.11 16 7

3 4 18 5 6 3 1997.11 14 4 2001 4 5 1997.11 30 6 8

1998 530 bbl 267 bbl 39. 2 700 bbl 2 2000 bbl 2 700 bbl OPEC 2 bbl 50 bbl 5 50 bbl 5000 5 bbl 5000 bbl 17 426 77 5 7 50 50 2000 95 41 2000 9086 272 9000 33 17 4707 16 8 7 2001.9 19 21 8 2002 11 27 9

65 9 1998 147 10 1859 8 EL 11 9 2001.9 19 21 10 2001.9 21 11 2030 1996 6 84 10

12 13 12 2002.4 33 13 2002.2 122 11

98 80% SS 20 95 A A LSA HAS C 12

B LPG 14 15 14 2002.2 89 15 2002.2 96 13

32% 27% 40% 99.7 1973 WTI 14

16 2 1999 2001 2000 40% 17 16 2002.4 28 29 17 2002.2 262 15

18 JOX 19 18 2002 12 30 19 2002 12 28 16

668 1873 1901 17

2002 6 20 11 7 21 IMPEX JAPEX 20 2002 5 27 21 2002.2 182 18

INPEX 22 AIOC tangu IMPEX 23 22 2002 12 20 23 2002.2 184 19

1999 4 2002 6 1995 12 45 2000 9 23 1 2001 3 3 1 2001 4 ENEOS SS 24 24 2002.4 96 97 20

14 6 1911 2 1940 PB 26 10.4% 1992 am/pm 1000 2001 3 60% 27 2000 3 2000 9 25 26 2002.4 101 102 27 2002.4 101 21

11.4% 1986 4 1999 11 1700 1996~2003 28 2002 12 29 2.3% 1941 2 SS SS 28 2002.4 97 29 2002 11 7 22

30 1.8% 1960 12 2000 8 62 31 1999 11 3 2002 6 23.7% 2001 7 30 2002.4 102 31 2002.4 97 98 23

32 12.9 1985 15 21 33 BP BP SS IT 32 33 2002.4 98 2002.4 98 99 24

1996 34 LPG 2 34 1998 8 4 25

26

10 1 GS GS 27

35 SS 1996 4900 7 JA 4833 9 5.3% 9% 4% 50% 5000 JA 36 SS 35 2002 8 64 36 2002.4 140 28

37 SS SS SS SS SS SS SS 37 2002 2 23 29

SS 286 1999 1 30

19 20 OPEC 1970 80 OPEC 90 31

1970 20 70 70 4 20 38 [ 12 21 ] 38 2003 19 23 32

2002.9.19 33

2002.11.26 2002.11.18 34

60 70 39 OPEC OPEC 4 1 9 OPEC OPEC OPEC 40 CIA 73 24 200 700 41 39 2002 12 30 40 2002 12 31 41 2003 1 1 35

42 OPEC ~9 OPEC 1980 79 91 IMF 12 (OPEC11 12 ) 81 90 96 5 3 8 7 10~15% 43 42 2003 1 1 43 2002 10 15 82 36

[ 1 4 ] ( 2002.11.27 ) ( 2002.11.26 ) 37

( 2002.11.26 ) 38

OPEC 39

OPEC OPEC OPEC 40 OPEC 1 300 2 40

OPEC 2001.1 P175 179 2002.8.9 41

2002.9.24 1820 k 4000 4200 m3 4200km 120 m3 2000 3. 1 4000 42

2001.9 P22 2002.9.21 43

2002.9.22 90 i ii i ii 44

14 ( ) II (1) (2) (3) 44 44 http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/energy/oil/oil01.htm 2002 11 29 45

, kl 46

1) ppm 2) 2005 9 11 2000 14 2 47

45 1) 2) 3) 4) 1) 2) 3) 46 45 http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/energy/oil/oil01.htm 2002 11 29 46 http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/energy/oil/oil01.htm 2002 11 29 48

1 1997 1 4 1 4 1 5 3 1 5 2 2001.9 P113 118 2 80 3 E 49

3 Co2 Co2 E 2002 7 P24 29 50

2002.8.28 51

2002.8.7 2002.7.19 52

2002.8.30 87 96 3 53

286 1999 54

( 2002.11.18 ) 90 90 2003 34 35 5 1991 2003 35 36 55

1970 80 2003 37 2003 37 38 2003 39 2003 40 56

10 2003 40 43 OECD 2003 41 73 2003 45 80 OPEC 70 7 80 OPEC OPEC 2002 10 57

60 7 70 20 1 NYMEX IPE 2003 45 49 2003 51 OPEC WTI 1 40 WTI WTI WTI 58

2003 52 54 90 91 99 2000 1 600 2003 56 63 59

2003 63 67 2003 69 70 1990 60

90 9 11 2002 5 2003 77 85 1 2003 96 100 61

2003 100 102 2003 103 2003 132 133 2003 140 2003 143 62

100 10 2003 153 90 286 1999 SS 63

SS SS 286 1999 286 1999 64

2002 25 ) 65

( 1 1 ) 11 2002 early actions delayed actions EU fatally flawed 2008 66

2012 2013 (sequestration) (space solar power system) early actions delayed actions EU delayed actions 1990 90 98 3.2 12 11 34 11 98 42 98 2010 (voluntary care) (regulatory measures) (economic measures) 80 90 CO2 67

CO2 RV CIMA VITZ BAU(Business-As-Usual) BAU CO2 97 0.4 98 3.5 CO2 85 29.5 97 24.3 24.3 16.5 CO2 20 CO2 20 21 68

47 47 2001 11 30 69

70

( 2002.4.23 ) 71

72

48 ( 1 1 ) 48 2003 1 1 73

3 12 16 18 20 1996 5200 5100 46 220 74

3 60 1998 32 2 13 13 9 7 6 37 5.1 1 25 2 9 49 3000 49 2001.9 17 19 75

LNG 1998 146 m3 39 34 10 LNG 300 1998 2 2700 79 50 1998 20 LNG 25 LNG 58 2 5200 20 69 24 7 76

4 24 1995 9 50 50 2001.9 P21 24 77

( 2002.11.14 ) 78

500 1967 13 10 100 51 1970 100 900 20 50 5500 52 16 51 2001.4 61 62 52 2002 6 26 79

53 2.1 2.8 bbl 9 5500 6000 bbl 9200 bbl 1967 2001 60 bbl 270 bbl 22 20 6000 bbl 43.6% 10% 4.9% 4.0% 1996 2001.9 P24 53 2002 6 42 80

90 54 54 2003 18 19 81

( 2002.11.8 ) 82

83 55 55 2001 4 77 79

65 70 80 400 1100 56 56 2002 8 26 84

85

EM RDS 86

+ + + 87

2001.4 2001.3 2001.1 2001 2001.6 1996.7 1993.9 2030 1996 6 2001.1 1998.12 1999.5 1979.3 1999.8 21 21 1996.9 1993.4 1994.4 NTT LP LP 1993.3 LP 1997.10 1997.3 2000.2 1997.8 1993.8 1993.11 1998.7 1999.12 2000.11 1996.7 2001.9 88

89 2000.3 2000.2 1998.8 1991.4 1991.4 1986.7 21 1988.3 1994.10 J 1999.9 2002.3 2002.4 2001.5 2001.12 2002 8 1989.4 1999.9 T 2002.1 21 1999.2 1994.7 1991.8 1991.5 1998.4 1998.3 1999.8 1975 21 2001.4 2001.10 2001.5 21 2000.1 1997.3 1998.12

90 1997.6 1996.12 21 1998.9 1994.2 2001.7 1999.2 21 2000.1 1994.5 1994 1991.12 1995.6 2001.9 1996.5 1995.10 D 1982.12 1994.7 OPEC 1988.9 1991.8 1993.10 1993.9 1994.5 2001 4 1999.5 1997.12 1999.3 2001.11 21 2001.11 1997.5 1992.3 1994.9 1994.9 1995.12

1994.5 1992.3 1994.9 21 1998.7 1998.10 21 1994.1 IEA 1999.6 2001.8 IEA 1999.6 2001.8 1996 3 1997 1997.11 2001 2001.9 2002.2 2003 2002 6 26 2002 11 27 2002 5 27 2001 11 30 2003 1 1 2002 12 30 2002 12 28 2002 8 26 2002 12 20 2002 11 7 2002 12 30 2002 12 31 2003 1 1 91

2002 10 15 2002 6 2001 4 http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/ ECCJ http://www.eccj.or.jp/ Energy Conservation Center http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/ http://home.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/er/index.html http://criepi.denken.or.jp/index-j.html PAJ http://www.paj.gr.jp/ Petroleum Association of Japan http://oil-info.ieej.or.jp/ PEC http://www.pecj.or.jp/ Petroleum Energy Center JPCA http://www.jpca.or.jp/ Japan Petrochemical Industry Association JGA http://www.gas.or.jp/ (The Japan Gas Association) LP http://www.j-lpgas.gr.jp/ JCOAL http://www.jcoal.or.jp/ Japan Coal Energy Center NEF http://www.nef.or.jp/ New Energy Foundation NEDO http://www.nedo.go.jp/index.html New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization IAE http://www.iae.or.jp/index.html The Institute of Applied Energy 92

http://www.eneos.co.jp http://www.cosmo-oil.co.jp/ http://www.tonengeneral.co.jp/ http://www.showa-shell.co.jp/ http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/ http://www.j-energy.co.jp/ http://www.kyushuoil.co.jp/ http://www.taiyooil.net/ http://www.jnoc.go.jp/ http://www.teikokuoil.co.jp/ 2003 1 9 16 00 18 00 1 30 G G 93

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