+
+ n n n n n n n n
+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% [% of TWh] (data source) IEA Electricity Information 2016
+ IE DK Phase 4 ID BR CL IN ZA MX NZ AU CA AT NL SE BE IT UK GR DE ES PT Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Share of VRE generation IEA: Getting wind and sun onto the grid A manual for Policy Makers (2017)
+
+
+ n n n n n n
+ benefit n n n n profit n n
+ n n n n n n n 1-(4) 4% 50 2-(1) 3-(2) 3-(3) 2-(2) 2-(3) 2-(4) n n 2-(5) 3-(4) 4
+ n n n n n n n n n
+ n n polluters-pay principle n n n n beneficiary-pay principle n n n n
+ n n n n n n n n n n
+ n n n n n n n n n
+ Energy Exchange from/to GB [TWh] 500 400 300 200 100 Interconnector Usage Consumption 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 西暦 [ 年 ] Year VRE Generation 100 80 60 40 20
+ TBCF [%] 0 20 40 60 80 100 TBCF [%] 0 20 40 60 80 100 DKW > NO DKW > SE DKW > DE DKE > SE DKE > DE FR > DE FR > GB FR > IT FR > ES NO > NL NL > GB
+ http://tyndp.entsoe.eu
European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity + n n n n n n 10-Year Network Development Plan 2012
9.2% 8.9% 23.6% 59.2% エネルギーロードマップ 2050 に向け進展 13.4% 25.1% 4.0% 7.6% 15.7% 9.1% 8.4% 25.0% 58.6% 15.4% 26.1% 3.5% 7.4% 14.8% 欧州の弱い結束 ENTSO- E: Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016 (2016) (:, R&D (2016) 5.3% 14.3% 14.6% 49.4% 15.4% 17.5% 7.8% 30.3% 16.0% 20.3% 6.5% 17.1% 7.0% 6.2% 47.1% 16.8% 16.5% ヴィジョン3: 各国グリーンシナリオヴィジョン 4: 欧州グリーンシナリオ ヴィジョン 1: 発展遅延シナリオ ヴィジョン 2: 発展抑制シナリオ エネルギーロードマップ 2050 から遅延 4.8% 17.9% 30.1% 7.4% 22.8% 欧州の強い枠組
+ n n n n European Commission: Projects of Common Interest Interactive Map http://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/transparency_platform/map-viewer/
+ n n n n ENTSO-E: Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016 (2016)
+ 1.12 /MWh/GW RE (source) J. Cludius et al: The Merit Order Effect of Wind and Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in Germany 2008-2012, Centre for Energy and Environmental Market (2013)
+ 140 Brent Spot [USD/Barrel], EPEX Spot [EUR/MWh] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 Brent EPEX 2005 2010 2015 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Petroleum & other liquid European Power Exchange (EPEX): KWK Price
+
+ C1 10 Light green 310 Green 3 Dark green B1 LOLE MWh ENS MWh Light green 3TWh 0.001% Green 3TWh 0.01% Dark green B2 EU 3 Light green 3 10 Green 10 Dark green B3 MW EU 100MW MW EU 50GWh White 100MW500MW 50GWh100GWh Light green 500MW 300GWh Dark green B4 MWh EU Red Whit Light green B5 CO2 CO2 tons EU CO 2 Whit CO 2 500 Light green CO 2 500 Dark green B6 Resilience KPIKey Performance Index 0, +,++ KPI0 (Whit) KPI3+ Green) KPI3+ Dark green) B7 Flexibility KPIKey Performance Index 0, +,++ KPI0 (Whit) KPI3+ Green) KPI3+ Dark green)
+ General CBA Indicators Delta GTC contribution (2020) [MW] DE-NO: 1400 NO-DE: 1400 Delta GTC contribution (2030) [MW] DE-NO: 1400 Capex Costs 2015 (M ) Source: Project Promoter Cost explanation S1 S2 B6 + NO-DE: 1400 1850 B7 ++ 50-100km Negligible or less than 15km Scenario specific CBA indicators EP2020 Vision 1 Vision 2 Vision 3 Vision 4 B1 SoS (MWh/yr) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A B2 SEW (MEuros/yr) 110 ±20 100 ±10 100 ±20 120 ±10 70 ±10 B3 RES integration (GWh/yr) 100 ±20 220 ±170 <10 890 ±180 350 ±70 B4 Losses (GWh/yr) 350 ±35 350 ±35 350 ±35 350 ±35 350 ±35 B4 Losses (Meuros/yr) 15 ±1 19 ±2 16 ±2 21 ±2 23 ±3 B5 CO2 Emissions (kt/year) -400 ±80 ±100-500 ±500-700 ±100-100 ±800 ENTSO-E: TYNDP2016 combined project sheets (2015)
+ General CBA Indicators Delta GTC contribution (2020) [MW] ter: 5750 Delta GTC contribution (2030) [MW] ter: 5750 Capex Costs 2015 (M ) Source: Project Promoter Cost explanation S1 S2 B6 + B7 + ter: 5750 ter: 5750 7000 ±1000 More than 100km Negligible or less than 15km Scenario specific CBA indicators EP2020 Vision 1 Vision 2 Vision 3 Vision 4 B1 SoS (MWh/yr) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A B2 SEW (MEuros/yr) 670 ±140 1220 ±90 1060 ±80 1350 ±70 1520 ±90 B3 RES integration (GWh/yr) 15550 ±3110 20640 ±10 20650 ±20 19200 ±150 20180 ±70 B4 Losses (GWh/yr) 550 ±55 925 ±92 1000 ±100 1300 ±130 1825 ±182 B4 Losses (Meuros/yr) 23 ±3 50 ±5 46 ±5 77 ±8 122 ±13 B5 CO2 Emissions (kt/year) -12200 ±1830-11700 ±200-15800 ±2000-7300 ±1000-8400 ±1300 ENTSO-E: TYNDP2016 combined project sheets (2015)
+ ENTSO-E: Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016 (2016)
+ n n n n n n n n n
+ n n n n n
+ yasuda@mem.iee.or.jp