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2 Growth and CO2Emissions :How do Different Countries F Enviroment Department,The World Bank,October2007 Web GDP CO (1) (2) (3)GDP (4) GDP (5) (1)GDP CO 2 (2)70 56 (4200 ) (3)GDP 49 2
3 2008 Environmental Performance Index( Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, Yale University Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia Univers EC EPI (1) 4 (2) 3 3
4 (1) 10 ( 1 2 ) (2) ( 3 5 ) 2050 ( ) (3)3 /550ppm 2 /450ppm 0.5 /320ppm 2 /450ppm (4)IEA(2 /450ppm (5) / % ( ) (6) / / 4
5 5
6 18 πr 2 FA F(W/m 2 ) R 2 πr 2 4πR σt 4 T = πr 2 (1 A) F (1 A) F = 4σ 1/ πR σt A =0.3 F =1368W/m 2 = Wm -2 K -4 T = 255K( 18 ) 6
7 fσt ) 1 ( T f σ T 1 T 0 4 fσt 1 4 ) 1 ( A F ) ( , ) 2 (1 4 ) (1 (2) 2 (1) ) (1 4 ) ( / K T f A f A F T T f T f T f T f A F = = = = = + = σ σ σ σ σ ( + ) ( ) ( ) 4 σt 0
8 GHG F=(1 f/2) T0 4 (1 (f+ f)/2) T0 4 =1/2 T0 4 T0= F =1/4(1 f/2) T0 3 =0.3K/(W/m 2 ) = K/(W/m 2 ) =0.75 (J.Hansen, NASA) 8
9 CO 2 T 2 =A log[556 (CO 2 )] T 1 =A log[278 ( CO 2 278ppm )] T 2 T 1 =A log 556 A log(278)= A log2=cs(climate Sensitivity) A=CS/log2(CS= )=3 IPCC 4 T T 1 = CS/log2 9
10 1/ 10
11 CO 2 C ppm) 2 (CS) (PDF) PDF x = 2 A CS [ ] [ C278 ]/ log2 T= CS log C278 /log2 = A CS A=log Ax 2 ( ) 0 A ( x) ( ) ( 2 ) PDF x dx A x CO2 2 PDF d x=1 (PDF ) 11
12 2 CO2 ppm Malte Meinshausen, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change p265 (2006) 12
13 ppm
14 CH4 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CH4 14
15 Barrie Pittock Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial an Research Organization Aspendals, Austral (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 15
16 Jan.2008 Earth Policy Institute, % 2007 (2005 ) 23% % % % B , % 1 35m m/
17 Serreze k k 1 21 k 9 IPCC The Independent ,by steve Connor, Science Editor Dr.Serreze (National Snow and Ice Data Centre,USA) Tipping point
18 9 ( ),, NASA km Source National Snow and Ice Data Center 18
19 k k k 19
20 , Julienne Stroeve et al Geophysical Research Letters 34, L09501(2007) ( ) IPCC 4 ( ),. 20
21 a) 12, 1, 2 a) Fig. (FARC-MARC) FARC MARC (cm) Ref : Jacob O. Sewall and Lisa Cirbus Sloan, 21 Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west(2004)
22 Km 2 (NASA) IPCC-AR (Serreze, NASA) (Maslowsky, US Naval Post graduate School) 2012 (Jay Zwally, NASA) (Louis Fortier, (2008 ) 100 Km 2 CNRS, (Rigor,,,, 2007 Gascard, 22
23 23
24 Professor Tim Lenton (University of East Anglia) Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung) 24
25 Data Source: Timothy M. Lenton et al Nature Reports Climate Change 25 H
26 ( ) 26
27 Dr. James E. Hansen (NASA) 5 CCS CCS( ) 27
28 Climate Catastrophe by James Hansen 301 News Scientist / 28 July 2007 BAU m CO 2 450ppm IPCC / / 1500 / / 10 / m 300 CO m 14, m BAU reticence 28
29 4 6m 21 J.T. Overpeck et al, Science 311, 1747 (2006) B.L.Otto-Bliesner et al,science 311, 1751(2006) , ,000 m 29
30 Source; Millennial Atmospheric Lifetime of Anthropogenic CO2 David Archer University of Chicago
31 1 Target practice by David Spratt and Philip Sutton,Nov Wieslaw Maslowskiy US ( CO 2e 320ppm 31
32 2 Target practice by David Spratt and Philip Sutton,Nov USA ,000 35, CO EU 2 32
33 3 target practice by David Spratt and Philip Sutton,Nov m 1000 *300 Pliocene 3 25m CO ppm * 1 5 UK, 5% % % 3 *3 450ppmCO 2e 50: GHG CO 2e ppm CO 2e 550ppm CO 2e * 6 Hansen 33
34 0.5 /320ppm target practice by David Spratt and Philip Sutton,Nov.2007 (1) ppmCO total) 370ppm 50ppm 0.1 / / / km/10 Hansen Cooling) (2) 34
35 CO 2 by Jim Hansen, 29 January / CO 2 ppm) CO 2 350ppm CH4,O3, CO 385ppm 35
36 3 /550ppm Stern (2006) ppmCO2e RITE(2007) 550ppmCO2 IPCC-AR4(2007) ppmCO 2 /450ppm Baer-Mastrandrea (2006) CO % Mainshausen (2006)CO2e % Rive,Torvager et al (2007) 2050 CO2e 80% UNFCC (2007) ppmCO2e 0.5 /320ppm Spratt-Sutton ppmCO2e Hansen (2007) 350ppmCO2 CO2e=CO2 36
37 2 3 /550ppm 2 /450ppm 0.5 /320ppm CO 2 CCS 37
38 38 38
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